Incumbent MPs
- Lara Alexander (Independent), since 2022.1
- Michael Ferguson (Liberal), since 2010.
- Janie Finlay (Labor), since 2021.
- Michelle O’Byrne (Labor), since 2006.
- Simon Wood (Liberal), since 2022.2
1Alexander filled a casual vacancy caused by the resignation of Sarah Courtney in February 2022. Alexander first sat as a Liberal but resigned from the party in May 2023.
2Wood filled a casual vacancy caused by the resignation of Peter Gutwein in February 2022.
Geography
Bass covers the north-eastern corner of Tasmania. It covers the Launceston, George Town, Dorset and West Tamar council areas. Bass also covers Tasmania’s north-eastern islands, including Flinders Island.
History
Bass was first created as a state electorate in 1909, when Tasmania moved to a system of proportional representation with each district electing six members. Bass has always had the same boundaries as the federal electorate of the same name.
At the 1909 election, the Anti-Socialists won three seats, the ALP two and one seat went to the “Liberal Democrats” party. The ALP and the Liberals won three seats each at the 1912, 1913 and 1916 elections.
The Nationalists won a 4-2 majority in 1919, although one of those four seats was lost to an independent in 1922.
The ALP and Nationalists maintained a 3-3 split at the 1925, 1928 and 1934 elections, with the Nationalists gaining a 4-2 majority in 1931.
The ALP won a majority in Bass for the first time in 1937, maintaining it until a 3-3 split was restored in 1948. Bass continued to elect even numbers of Liberals and Labor MPs from 1948 until 1959, when an expanded House of Assembly saw Bass elect a seventh seat, which went to an independent.
After the ALP and Liberals won three seats each at each election, the seventh Bass seat was traded back and forth from 1964 to 1986, with the ALP winning in 1964, 1972 and 1979, and the Liberals winning in 1969, 1976, 1982 and 1986.
Green independent Lance Armstrong won the seventh seat in 1989, and retained it in 1992, when the Liberals won a fourth seat off the ALP, who were reduced to two seats.
The ALP regained their third seat in 1996 at the expense of Armstrong, producing a 4-3 split favouring the Liberals.
The reduction of seats at the 1998 election hit the Liberal Party hard, who lost two of their four seats, while the ALP retained their three seats. The ALP lost one of those three seats to Kim Booth in 2002.
The 2-2-1 split was retained at the 2006 election, although former federal MP Michelle O’Byrne topped the poll and helped engineer the only pro-Labor swing in the state, almost defeating Booth, who won the final seat by a 136-vote margin over Labor candidate Steve Reissig.
Bass was the only electorate to maintain the party ratio in 2010, with 2 Labor, 2 Liberal and 1 Greens. Every other electorate shifted to the same proportion as Bass.
Sitting Labor MP Jim Cox and Liberal MP Sue Napier both retired. The poll was topped by former federal Liberal MP Michael Ferguson. For the second election in a row, a federal MP who had been defeated at the last federal election switched to state politics and topped the poll. Along with Michael Ferguson, the other open seat went to the ALP’s Brian Wightman.
The Liberal Party’s Sarah Courtney won a third seat for the party in 2014, with Labor’s Brian Wightman losing his seat.
The 2014 result was repeated in 2018 and 2021, with the Liberal Party winning three seats and Labor winning two seats.
In 2023, Liberal MP Lara Alexander quit the party to sit as an independent.
- Greens
- Lauren Ball
- Carol Barnett
- Jack Fittler
- Tom Hall
- Calum Hendry
- Anne Layton-Bennett
- Cecily Rosol
- Independent
- Tim Walker
- Jacqui Lambie Network
- Labor
- Melissa Anderson
- Roshan Dhingra
- Janie Finlay*
- Will Gordon
- Adrian Hinds
- Geoff Lyons
- Michelle O’Byrne*
- Liberal
- Animal Justice
- Ivan Davis
- Independent
- Mark Brown
- Independent
- Shooters, Fishers & Farmers
- Michael Frydrych
- Independent
- Jack Davenport
- Ungrouped
- Greg (Tubby) Quinn
- George Razay
Assessment
For the Liberal Party to win a majority, they’ll need three seats in each electorate plus three more across the other five districts. The party polled close to five quotas in 2021. If they win five seats at the next election it would be very helpful in aiming for a majority.
The increase in magnitude solidifies Labor’s second seat and also makes a Greens win more realistic.
| Candidate | Votes | % | Quota | New quota | Swing |
| Peter Gutwein | 32,482 | 48.2 | 2.8935 | ||
| Michael Ferguson | 3,806 | 5.7 | 0.3390 | ||
| Sarah Courtney | 2,227 | 3.3 | 0.1984 | ||
| Simon Wood | 707 | 1.0 | 0.0630 | ||
| Greg Kieser | 646 | 1.0 | 0.0575 | ||
| Lara Alexander | 511 | 0.8 | 0.0455 | ||
| Liberal Party | 40,379 | 60.0 | 3.5969 | 4.7956 | +2.2 |
| Michelle O’Byrne | 7,813 | 11.6 | 0.6960 | ||
| Janie Finlay | 5,830 | 8.7 | 0.5193 | ||
| Adrian Hinds | 1,663 | 2.5 | 0.1481 | ||
| Jennifer Houston | 1,512 | 2.2 | 0.1347 | ||
| Owen Powell | 706 | 1.0 | 0.0629 | ||
| Australian Labor Party | 17,524 | 26.0 | 1.5610 | 2.0812 | -0.6 |
| Jack Davenport | 2,952 | 4.4 | 0.2630 | ||
| Anne Layton-Bennett | 1,091 | 1.6 | 0.0972 | ||
| Tom Hall | 886 | 1.3 | 0.0789 | ||
| Cecily Rosol | 691 | 1.0 | 0.0616 | ||
| Mitchell Houghton | 561 | 0.8 | 0.0500 | ||
| Tasmanian Greens | 6,181 | 9.2 | 0.5506 | 0.7341 | -0.5 |
| Andrew Harvey | 1,649 | 2.4 | 0.1469 | ||
| Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 1,649 | 2.4 | 0.1469 | 0.1958 | +2.4 |
| Sue Woodbury | 1,242 | 1.8 | 0.1106 | ||
| Animal Justice Party | 1,242 | 1.8 | 0.1106 | 0.1475 | +1.8 |
| Roy Ramage | 377 | 0.6 | 0.0336 | ||
| Total Others | 377 | 0.6 | 0.0336 | 0.0448 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 3,544 | 5.0 | 0.0000 |
Preference flows
Then-premier Peter Gutwein polled almost three quotas in his own right, and the distribution of his preferences elected two other Liberals early in the count.
Let’s fast forward to the last eight candidates running for the last two seats. This included two Liberals, three Labor, two Greens and one Shooter.
- O’Byrne (ALP) – 0.848 quotas
- Finlay (ALP) – 0.645
- Davenport (GRN) – 0.390
- Wood (LIB) – 0.252
- Hinds (ALP) – 0.229
- Harvey (SFF) – 0.228
- Layton-Bennett (GRN) – 0.214
- Alexander (LIB) – 0.186
Alexander’s preferences strongly favoured fellow Liberal Wood:
- O’Byrne (ALP) – 0.856
- Finlay (ALP) – 0.652
- Davenport (GRN) – 0.392
- Wood (LIB) – 0.401
- Harvey (SFF) – 0.232
- Hinds (ALP) – 0.231
- Layton-Bennett (GRN) – 0.217
Layton-Bennett’s preferences strongly favoured fellow Greens candidate Davenport:
- O’Byrne (ALP) – 0.871
- Finlay (ALP) – 0.662
- Davenport (GRN) – 0.572
- Wood (LIB) – 0.402
- Harvey (SFF) – 0.237
- Hinds (ALP) – 0.232
Hinds’ preferences split roughly evenly between the two remaining Labor candidates:
- O’Byrne (ALP) – 0.977
- Finlay (ALP) – 0.756
- Davenport (GRN) – 0.583
- Wood (LIB) – 0.409
- Harvey (SFF) – 0.246
Shooters preferences elected O’Byrne to the fourth seat:
- O’Byrne (ALP) – 1.000
- Finlay (ALP) – 0.813
- Davenport (GRN) – 0.624
- Wood (LIB) – 0.490
Preferences from the final Liberal candidate elected Finlay over the Greens. The final margin is 3,499 votes, or 0.312 quotas.
- Finlay (ALP) – 0.996
- Davenport (GRN) – 0.684
Bass covers five local council areas. Most of the population lies in Launceston local government area. These booths have been split into Launceston North, Launceston South and Launceston Rural. A majority of the population lies in the Launceston urban area.
The Liberal vote was lowest in Launceston North and highest in Dorset.
The Labor primary vote ranged from 14.6% on Flinders Island to 30.3% in George Town. The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 5.7% in Dorset to 11.8% in rural Launceston.
| Voter group | LIB % | ALP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Launceston North | 55.3 | 28.2 | 11.6 | 22,042 | 32.7 |
| Launceston South | 62.4 | 26.3 | 7.1 | 10,607 | 15.7 |
| West Tamar | 57.9 | 27.1 | 9.1 | 4,337 | 6.4 |
| George Town | 56.0 | 30.3 | 6.7 | 2,582 | 3.8 |
| Dorset | 71.4 | 17.9 | 5.7 | 2,497 | 3.7 |
| Launceston Rural | 60.4 | 21.3 | 11.8 | 2,333 | 3.5 |
| Flinders Island | 69.3 | 14.6 | 11.2 | 473 | 0.7 |
| Pre-poll | 63.9 | 23.5 | 8.7 | 12,900 | 19.2 |
| Other votes | 61.1 | 26.3 | 7.4 | 9,581 | 14.2 |
Election results in Bass at the 2021 Tasmanian election
Toggle between primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor Party and the Greens.
why do the state seats have the same names as the federal ones?
John, because the boundaries are coterminous hence the names are also identical. I don’t know the full history behind this decision, but it may be the result of the state wanting to have a simplified arrangement when they started electing the Assembly using proportional representation.
@John @Yoh Anh the only difference is that the state seats elect five members while the federal seats only elect one. But what I find most interesting is how voting patterns in Tasmania differ on the federal and state levels, even with the exact same boundaries (more or less like Queenslanders who have voted in Labor state governments but also voted in federal Coalition governments, federally Labor has won the TPP in Queensland in just three of the 21 federal elections since 1949, the most recent being 2007. I guess federal Labor Party is too progressive for Queenslanders while the Tasmanian Labor Party is too progressive for Tasmanians.
To give context, at the last Tasmanian state election (held in 2021 with 25 seats in the House of Assembly), these were the results (to save space I’ve just done the results for the Liberals, Labor, the Greens and independents):
Statewide:
Liberal: 13 seats (±0 or +1 if you count defections), 48.72% (–1.54%)
Labor: 9 seats (–1), 28.20% (–4.43%)
Greens: 2 seats (±0), 12.38% (+2.08%)
Independents: 1 seat (+1 or ±0 if you count defections), 6.22% (+5.14%)
By seat:
Liberal: 59.95% (Bass), 57.19% (Braddon), 31.83% (Clark), Franklin (42.26%), Lyons (51.19%)
Labor: 26.02% (Bass), 26.52% (Braddon), 22.06% (Clark), 33.31% (Franklin), 32.54%
Greens: 9.18% (Bass), 5.55% (Braddon), 20.03% (Clark), 18.95% (Franklin), 8.86% (Lyons)
Others: 4.85% (Bass), 10.73% (Braddon), 26.07% (Clark), 5.58% (Franklin), 7.41% (Lyons)
In contrast, the results of the last federal election (in 2022) in Tasmania for the (House of Representatives) were (I have included the results for the Liberals, Labor, the Greens, the JLN and independents, note that the JLN did not contest Clark):
Statewide primaries:
Liberal: 2 seats (±0), 32.94% (+2.31%)
Labor: 2 seats (±0), 27.76% (–6.35%)
Greens: 0 seats (±), 12.00% (+1.88%)
JLN: 0 seats (±0), 6.79% (+6.79%)
Independents: 1 seat (±0), 11.54% (–1.84%)
Statewide TPP:
Labor: 54.33% (–1.63%)
Liberal: 45.67% (+1.63%)
By seat (primaries):
Liberal: 39.73% (Bass, –2.60%), 44.11% (Braddon, +6.22%), 15.85% (Clark, –1.52%), 26.73% (Franklin, –4.54%), 37.22% (Lyons, +13.04%)
Labor: 28.61% (Bass, –6.13%), 22.50% (Braddon, –9.56%), 18.76% (Clark, –1.40%), 36.69% (Franklin, –7.30%), 29.04% (Lyons, –7.42%)
Greens: 11.10% (Bass, +0.62%), 6.72% (Braddon, +1.88%), 13.45% (Clark, +3.88%), 17.68% (Franklin, +1.11%), 11.43% (Lyons, +1.98%)
JLN: 6.69% (Bass), 9.87% (Braddon), 5.92% (Franklin), Lyons (10.68%)
Andrew Wilkie (independent): 45.54% (Clark, –4.51%)
By seat (TPP, ALP v LIB):
Labor: 48.57% (Bass, –1.02%), 41.97% (Braddon, –4.94%), 67.74% (Clark, +1.07%), 63.70% (Franklin, +1.49%), 50.92% (Lyons, –4.26)
Liberal: 51.43% (Bass, +1.02%), 58.03% (Braddon, +4.94%), 32.76% (Clark, –1.07%), 36.30% (Franklin, –1.49%), 49.08% (Lyons, +4.26%)
By seat (TCP, ALP v IND):
Labor: 29.18% (Clark, +1.30%)
Independent: 70.82% (Clark, –1.30%)
That there is what’s interesting about the five Tasmanian electorates. They’re exactly the same on both the federal and state levels (same names, same boundaries, different number of members elected), yet they vote completely differently on both levels with the Liberals winning a plurality or majority of the primary vote in every state seat (even the Hobart-based seat of Clark; precisely the Liberals had a majority of the primary vote in Bass, Braddon and Lyons and a plurality of the primary vote in Clark and Franklin), yet federally it is held by an independent, who faces the TCP count against Labor.
If Bass mirrored the Federal Election Results it would be 3 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Green & 1 JLN.
Except It won’t mirror federally. the State gov is actually unpopular. Bridget archer was popular and fed Labor doesn’t appeal to Tasmania currently. Morrison was unpopular in Tassie but not to the extent of the embattled Liberal gov.
I suspect 2 Lib, 2 Lab, 2JLN and 1 Grn. If JCL numbers hold in the 20’s.
@Daniel T the state Liberals do better than the federal Liberals in Tassie.
Also Rebecca White being willing to work with the Greens in not just confidence and supply but possibly even a coalition government plus she’s part of the Socialist Left faction makes her even more unpopular than Jeremy Rockliff (a Moderate Liberal) in Bass and certainly in Braddon and maybe even Franklin.
Nether Portal
I don’t personally know what the collective political consciousness is like in Tasmania, but I wonder whether there is enough interest in or knowledge of opposition leaders to justify your statement that she is less popular than Rockliff, who is clearly leading an aging government that is probably due for some rest and recuperation (and renewal). The Libs do have federal drag going for them, but even then I sense this may not be enough.
Of course the tas govt is on
The nose and the liberals know it. Why force an early
election….two possible reasons a fear that things will worsen or the hope of a
Liberal majority against all
Odds
This seems like the easiest one to predict. I don’t think Lara Alexander would have established enough of a profile to get elected as an independent. JLN didn’t poll as well in Bass as they did in Braddon and Lyons in 2022. They have no lead candidate and none of their (so far) announced candidates are previous JLN candidates. Leakage will be a big issue for them and could cost them from gaining any seats.
The Liberals will take a hit having lost Peter Gutwein and Sarah Courtney and now having a significantly weaker ticket. Still, they should easily get four seats. I think Labor’s vote will improve especially now that Janie Finlay has had three years to increase her vote but it won’t be enough for a third seat. Greens seem pretty disorganised with candidates this time but I think a Bass seat should be easy if there’s a swing towards them.
My prediction: 4 LIB, 2 LAB, 1 GRN
Hi Ben,
Please would you be able to update your Tally Room guide for the 2024 TAS Candidates with their profile links? ABC News Elections has recently added new links for Candidates and made some corrections to Candidates information. https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas/2024/guide/electorates.
e.g. BASS: IND. Tim Walker – https://www.facebook.com/councillortim/
e.g. BASS: IND. Mark Brown – https://www.brownforbass.com.au/
e.g. CLARK: IND. Ben Lohberger – https://www.benlohberger.com.au/
e.g. CLARK: IND. Stefan Vogel – https://www.facebook.com/StefanVogelPolitics/ – but his website is actually https://www.stefanvogel.com.au/
Please also kindly update Shooters, Fishers & Farmers – they have 11 candidates with individual links to profiles and photos listed under their main website https://www.sffptasmania.org/
Many thanks for your work and today’s post “The two Tasmanias”.
Sorry Sharon, my policy is people need to have their links ready to go when nominations close. It’s a big job to go back and update them a second time and it’s not my priority.
@Ben Raue can you update the featured guides though because it still has Dunkley on there? Also can you unlock the Tasmania 2024 page for comments?
Anyway, the 2024 Tasmanian state election in tomorrow. The Liberals are the favourites to win a historic fourth consecutive term in government.
Sorry what do you mean by “the featured guides”?
I am aware that the menus and electoral calendar still feature the early March elections. At some point I will archive them.
@Ben Raue yeah that’s what I meant.
Also can you unlock Tasmania 2024 please?
Yep sure.
Some thoughts on election eve
Liberals: they will take a hit because Gutwein and Sarah Courtney are not on the ballot this time. I expect 15%+ swing against and Bass having the biggest swing of all electorates. Michael Ferguson’s vote will bounce back up to a similar level as the 2018 election. I think Rob Fairs will be second elected and Simon Wood although low profile should be elected third as the only other incumbent Liberal. I don’t know who of the other Liberal candidates will be fourth. Julie Sladden is the most high profile but is controversial which doesn’t help. Maybe Sarah Quaile will as she’s the other woman on the ticket. I still think the Liberals will win four but am not confident on who is the final Liberal if so.
Labor: Michelle O’Byrne and Janie Finlay had similar primaries last time which helped Labor win the final seat instead of the Greens. With Finlay now an incumbent I expect her vote to improve. I think a third is out of reach but if they did get a third Geoff Lyons, Will Gordon or Adrian Hinds seem like the most likely. Hard to see them doing so badly they only get one especially with an even vote split for their top two candidates
Greens: They still suffer from having lower profile lead candidates in the northern electorates, but at least Cecily Rosol has run for previous elections. When in Launceston yesterday I saw Greens wobbleboarding along one of the busiest roads so they’re clearly trying. I think they’re more likely than not to win a seat.
JLN: I’m leaning towards JLN just missing out on a seat. They will have a leakage problem and I think that will see them lose out in a contest for the last two seats against the Green candidate and the fourth Liberal. Bass is not as strong for them as Braddon and Lyons
Others: Lara Alexander will struggle. I could see her maybe winning some women Liberal voters due to speaking out against sexism and the way she was treated by Rockliff and the party. Doesn’t help that the most high-profile Liberal woman is an anti-vaxxer that might turn off moderate voeters. That said Alexander is fairly conservative herself. Jack Davenport might take away some votes from the Greens but I doubt he’ll poll that well (only 4.4% primary as a lead candidate in 2021) and most of the votes will probably go back to the Greens once he’s excluded. The rest will get little bits of what’s remaining but will all be knocked out early.
I’m predicting a 4-2-1-0-0 (LIB, LAB, GRN, JLN, IND) result
less likely:
4-2-0-1-0
3-2-1-1-0
3-3-0-1-0
3-3-1-0-0
Liberals 3 and Labor 2 for sure – the other 2 seats are close.
I tip the Greens to sneak home in 1 seat. As for the last seat, I can’t see any Independent or Lambie candidate really standing out as capable of winning over disillusioned voters, so I tip Labor to take it in a close contest – taking its tally to 3.
Coming back to my predictions and I was right about the Liberal vote having a 15%+ swing against but didn’t anticipate it to be that bad. I was expecting little to no swing for Labor here so 29.8% is pretty good for them and sets them up well to get a third or even fourth seat next election. Greens did even better than I expected and easily won a seat. I was wrong about JLN in Bass and they really benefited from the Liberal vote crashing. Leakage here and in the other seats wasn’t as big a problem as I assumed it would be.
Independents also flopped here big time. I don’t know how much difference an extra year would’ve made but pushing Rockliff to call an early election was a bad move for Alexander and Tucker’s hopes of re-election.