Tasmania 2024

i think the libs will do marginally better then te 14 seats predicted. i think the independants will get squeezed out by the parties. im predicting 17 liberal. 4 lambie. 10 labor 4 greens

@John would that be considered a landslide victory?

Also are they really only predicting 14 seats for the Liberals? I’d say it would be more than that given they’re the favourites to win.

Given that the new Parliament will have 35 seats, then 17 is just short of a majority (18 required). 17 would be in line with current polling, which shows the Liberals well ahead but still short of 50% primary vote.

With 17 seats, the Liberals should easily form a minority government with confidence and supply likely to be granted from any conservative leaning crossbenchers (either independents or JLN members).

@NP the predictions from the unnnamed poll says 14 liberal 4 lambie 4 greens 4 independents 9 labor. however given the last election those 4 independents were elected labor or liberals who got kicked out i reckon they will get squeezed out and the majors will get them back.

Does anyone know if with the Robson Rotation the rotation cycle includes the order of party columns from left to right on the paper?
If not would there be a small % of votes that go to the column on the far left by those who may legitimately do a 1-7 but on the 1st column?

There’s no way that no independents get elected. The worst case scenario for IND is only Kristie Johnston getting elected. Also I wouldn’t rely on the projections from that recent poll saying 8% JLN in Franklin gives them a seat. They could easily be beaten out by O’Byrne or one of the Labor, Liberal or Green candidates and are particularly susceptible to leakage.

I think the Liberals have to get a majority for it to be any sort of landslide. 17 seats would still be an overperformance compared to the polling though and I really don’t see there being no independents elected, especially in Clark. Johnston should get re-elected at the bare minimum.

@John Kristie Johnston was elected as an independent not as a party member in 2021.

@Cameron the party columns are in the same order. It’s just the candidates within each party column that are rotated. As for the second question, not sure if anyone has looked into the benefit of having the first column in Hare-Clark elections before.

The current independents are:
Johnston – elected in Clark as an independent
O’Byrne – elected in Franklin for Labor
Tucker – elected in Lyons for Liberals
Alexander – elected in Bass for Liberals

other potential strong candidates are:
Craig Garland – conspiracy theorist serial candidate in Braddon who has repeatedly gotten results of 6-11% in state & federal elections
Sue Hickey – former speaker who lost her seat (in Clark) last election after quitting the Liberals, but got 10% and would have been re-elected if parliament was 35 seats then

Johnston is almost certain to retain her seat. O’Byrne and Hickey seem like pretty strong chances. Tucker and Garland seem like they at least have some chances. No one seems to think Alexander has much of a chance though.

It would be a hard ask for the Libs to get to 17 – they will not win more than 2 in Clark and 3 in Franklin so that leaves them having to get a combined 12 – 4 of 7 in each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons.

From here on the mainland it would seem that Lara Alexander has no chance.

It would also seem from past records that your Craig Garland voter would be the same as your JLN voter so they might cancel each other right out especially as they have less than full tickets.

@redistributed I don’t think I’ve spoken to anyone down here that rates Alexander’s chances either.

From the parts of Lyons I’ve been in during the campaign (Brighton, Oatlands, Midland Highway and Meander Valley) Tucker has very little presence. I think he will struggle. Garland did still poll 7.84% in Braddon 2022 when JLN also got 9.87% so they seem to have enough of a variance in voterbase not to cannibalise each other.

@redistributed given they got 3 in each of bass braddon and lyons and 2 in each of clark and franklin in 2021 it would not be unreasonable with the expanded house for them to achieve that.

2024 is a very different time to 2021. Rockliff is nowhere near as popular as Gutwein and there are a lot more non-major party candidates on the ballot paper with a serious chance of being elected.

Rockcliff doesn’t have the pull-factor or personal appeal like Gutwein or Hodgman did. There’s no Covid or hard border factor that helped the incumbents at various state/territory elections in 2020 and 2021. There’ll be a statewide swing away from the Liberals but it’ll go to the micro parties and independents.

The Liberals have a pathway to at least 15 seats albeit a narrow one. 15 is a big ask. It depends on them winning at least 3 seats in Braddon, Bass and Lyons. Clark is fairly left-wing (the Greens’s best seat) and there are independents with a chance (Johnston and Hickey). Ditto for Franklin except it is a bit more moderate than Clark. I see the Liberals getting 2 in Clark and 3 in Franklin.

I expect JLN to win one in Braddon – JL’s home turf, and possibly a second in Bass or Lyons.

Each poll has had a lot of variance which makes this way harder to predict than 2018 or 2021 but here goes

guesses are done as LIB-LAB-GRN-JLN-IND

Bass: 4-2-1-0-0
Braddon: 4-2-0-1-0
Clark: 2-2-1-0-2
Franklin: 3-2-1-0-1
Lyons: 3-2-1-1-0

INDs are Johnston, Hickey and O’Byrne

total is 16-10-4-2-3

Would probably mean Liberal minority on those numbers but not everyone on the crossbench will be easy for the Libs to deal with so it’s not a done deal.

@Zachary
Bass 3 lib 1 jln
Braddon 3 lib 1 ind Garland
Clark agreed
Franklin liberals won’t get 3
Lyons alp 3 libs 3
These are my guestimates

@Mick If Liberals only get 2 in Franklin who would you give the other seat to? Also in Lyons with Labor and Liberals both getting a third, which of JLN and Greens would miss out for you?

well we’ve got 10 hours until we start getting an idea of who might be forming government after this chaotic campaign

Zachary I like your assessment, I did a little analysis myself these past few weeks including looking into preference flows and who is more likely to be eliminated/exhausted early in the recount race.

My analysis is based on 2021 election data only so I haven’t attributed any swings for this year but with a smaller quota this time, this would happen:

Bass – Libs fill 1st 4 quotas before any other candidate elected.

Braddon – Libs again fill 1st 4 quotas before any other candidate gets to a quota

Clark – ALP, LIB & GRN all get a quota on 1st count, IND get 4th seat, ALP & LIB are the only groups able to win the last 3 seats, 2021 it would have been LIB 2, ALP 1

Franklin – ALP 2, LIB 2, GRN 1 on 1st count, Then it would take until the last counts to get ALP their 3rd seat, LIB would gain their 3rd in the first few recounts, the last seat would be a real toss-up for ALP & LIB. Most likely ALP.

Lyons – ALP & LIB get 2 each on 1st count, Lib get their 3rd, ALP 3rd, then LIB 4th

This would give LIB 18 seats with the 2021 count. They would need it to be similar to this for them to get a majority.

Preference flow strengths in Clark are also interesting.

When a candidate is exhausted, the amount of preferences that stay within the party will determine who gets the 7th seat in Lyons, Franklin and Clark this time.

In Clark, flow strength are like this:

ALP Exhausted, average flow to ALP – 88.94%
LIB exhausted, average flow to LIB – 91.46%
GRN Exhausted, av flow to GRN – 84.45%
IND to IND – 2727%

This shows preference discipline within the LIB ticket is the strongest, however as the recent article put on this website this week about preference flows, the LIB gain from the exhausting of themselves only. Basically no-one else on the ticket has preferences that flow in the LIB direction. This gives the advantage to ALP in the later counts.

As always, here’s ChatGPT’s blurb:

“The 2024 Tasmanian state election, held today, features a highly anticipated showdown between the incumbent Liberal government, led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff, vying for a historic fourth term, and the Labor opposition, under the leadership of Opposition Leader Rebecca White. In addition to the major parties, minor parties like the Greens, the Jacqui Lambie Network, and various independents are also in the running. Notably, Tasmania stands as the sole state with a Liberal government. This election, called a year early as a snap decision, promises to shape the political landscape of the state for years to come.”

@votante agreed i think shell get one in each bass braddon and lyons i think shell fall short in franklin.

@zachary il second your prediction

Polls close in just over one hour from now.

Definitely Liberals 3 and Labor 2 – the last 2 seats look close.
I tip Lambie’s party to come through in 1 seat, with a candidate who did really well in an overlapping seat at the last Federal election. The last seat could go in any direction, but I feel that it’ll go to Labor, due to having White as leader.

Definitely will result in Liberals leading on the raw numbers of MPs. But given how hostile the Libs have been against Lambie, I’m personally tipping a Labor ‘traffic-light’ minority with Labor, JLN, Greens. Labor is definitely exceeding my expectations, although they were quite low to begin with.

Oops – my comment was meant for the electorate of Lyons

In most seats the JLN seem to have pretty even numbers between their candidates. Is that where they might come unstuck with 3 person teams?

I think the Liberals will govern in a minority.

I don’t see Kristie Johnston backing Rockliff, So who will back him? If JLN backs them and they win 2 and the Libs manage to get to 15, then that is still 1 short. The maths is difficult for any side without Kristie Johnston and she is not conservative at all. she won’t back the Liberals. I would bet $100 (sarcasm) to anyone here who thinks she will.

This election was clearly a referendum on the proposed AFL stadium. Had the Liberals taken the stance of upgrading the existing AFL stadiums at a lower cost, they might’ve retained a majority.

@Daniel T she may work with the Liberals and the JLN might win some seats, but the Liberals are the largest party so as Antony Green pointed out, on the current numbers Labor could not form a cabinet.

@Ian it’s hard to get a majority under Hare-Clark with 35 seats.

Listen to what Antony’s saying. He says the Liberals will likely get 14 or 15 seats. The JLN are also projected to win two seats. The Liberals have a big advantage.

Agree Ian – at a time when ‘cost of living’ is the main focus, the Liberals had their priorities messed up in some way, and most of the lost vote has gone to minor parties (mainly JLN, with the Greens gaining support in the southern parts of the state).

Labor did not benefit from the loss of Liberal support, and their vote has remained steady (possibly gone backwards slightly in the two northern districts, Bass and Braddon but increased in Clark).

The Greens will not win a seat in Braddon.

I am projecting a Liberal minority government. Congratulations Jeremy Rockliff for a historic fourth term!

From what I gather, the most likely outcome is

15 Lib, 10 Lab, 5 Green, 2 Ind (Johnston and O’Byrne) and 3 JLN.

I think it would be a very hard sell for the JLN to side with Labor (10 seats) vs the Liberals (15 seats), especially considering at least some of the JLN candidates seem fairly conservative. At least one is openly pro-stadium and IIRC another was a conservative mayor. That’s 18/35 there.

Johnston or even O’Byrne wouldn’t need any formal agreement with the Libs/JLN, just promise supply and confidence and not to bring the government down on a whim.

Mathematically speaking, 15 LIB with 2 or 3 JLN and possibly an independent or two would be the easiest to achieve but it would diminish the “independence” of JLN and the independents and would be more unstable than the previous government with confidence and supply from the two ex-Libs.

The other possibility is that Labor cobbles together an alliance with the Greens and either JLN or independents. This could spell doom for Labor at the next federal and state elections given northern Tasmania’s dislike of the Greens. I also find it unfathomable that the Greens and JLN would be on the same page despite their anti-establishment stance.

I’m not being prophetic but I note that it is not uncommon for breakthrough minor parties that have gotten multiple MPs elected out of the blue but have then fallen apart with resignations within a term. Examples include UAP, One Nation and SFF. I’m mentioning this as it could happen to JLN. Coincidentally JL was a defector from UAP/PUP.

All we know about the federal prospects in Tassie is that Lyons would be gained by the Liberals and it would be safer than Bass but not safer than Braddon.

I might just be hoping for a chance is Tasmania, but I genuinely don’t see how it is feasible for JLN (who the ABC is now projecting has definitely won two seats) to side with the Liberals. Jacqui has said they done a “crap job” and they’ve also made up a fake website spreading what Lambie has said is disinformation about her party. It would be very strange if JLN sided with the Libs which is why I think an ALP -JLN-GRN coalition or more likely agreement would be formed.

The Australian is reporting that Miriam Beswick and Rebekah Pentland, two of the Lambie Network’s three MPs, are set to quit the party.

That might be a record – shortest time between an election and defection.

The JLN is failing just like SA Best in South Australia and the Territory Alliance in the Northern Territory. The only successful regionalist party in Australia has been Katter’s Australian Party in Queensland. SA Best were predicted to win a few seats and won none and TA went out after one election. Similarly One Nation collapsed after the 1998 and 2017 state elections in Queensland but since they exist elsewhere I won’t count them as regionalist. This is very different from other Western countries where regionalist parties win seats.

Western countries with regionalist parties in their national legislatures (with the number of seats held by those parties as a combined total):

* Australia: two seats, two parties
* Canada: 32 seats, one party
* France: 18 seats, 15 parties
* Germany: one seat, one party
* Italy: two seats, two parties
* South Africa: one seat, one party
* Spain: 27 seats, seven parties
* UK: 13 seats, two parties

*I define “regionalist” as parties that don’t exist in other states and advocate regionalist policies, which are not necessarily separatist or nationalist policies. I exclude Northern Irish parties from this because Northern Ireland has different parties to Great Britain. Similarly, in Denmark, the parties are different in the Faroe Islands and Greenland to those in Denmark itself. I also won’t include the Christian Social Union in Bavaria since it’s essentially the Bavarian state affiliate of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany).

In Belgium most if not all parties are grouped as Dutch, French or German-speaking.