Braddon – Tasmania 2021

Incumbent MPs

• Shane Broad (Labor)*, since 2017.
• Anita Dow (Labor), since 2018.
• Felix Ellis (Liberal), since 2020.
• Roger Jaensch (Liberal), since 2014.
• Jeremy Rockliff (Liberal), since 2002.

*Ellis filled a casual vacancy caused by the resignation of Joan Rylah on 17 August 2020. Rylah had replaced Adam Brooks in 2019.

Geography
Braddon covers the West Coast and North-West of Tasmania, including the islands to Tasmania’s northwest. The seat covers West Coast, Burnie, Central Coast, Circular Head, Latrobe, Devonport and Waratah/Wynyard councils. The seat’s largest centres are the towns of Devonport and Burnie.

Redistribution
Braddon expanded to take in the remainder of the Latrobe council area, including Port Sorell, from Lyons. This change increased the Liberal vote by 0.4% and slightly reduced the Labor vote.

History
Braddon was first created for the 1956 election, sharing a name and boundaries with the federal electorate of Braddon. This replaced the seat of Darwin, which had previously covered northwestern Tasmania since the introduction of proportional representation in 1909.

The ALP won four seats and the Anti-Socialists two in Darwin at the 1909 election. The ALP and Liberals divided the seats equally 3-3 at the 1912 and 1913 elections. The Liberals lost one of their three seats in 1916 and 1919, and in 1922 the Liberals were reduced to one seat, with the Country Party winning two.

From 1925 to 1955 the ALP and the Nationalist/Liberal parties split the seats in Darwin 3-3 with two exceptions. The Nationalists won a 4-2 majority in 1931 and the ALP won a 4-2 majority in 1941. A 3-3 split was repeated in the new seat of Braddon in 1956.

The ALP won a 4-3 majority in 1959 and 1964 after Braddon gained a seventh seat. The Liberals lost one of their three seats to an independent in 1969, and that seat went to the ALP in 1972, giving them a 5-2 majority. The ALP again won 4-3 majorities in 1976 and 1979, and the Liberals gained 4-3 majorities in 1982 and 1986.

The ALP lost one of their three seats to Green independent Di Hollister in 1989, while the Liberals maintained their four seats. The Liberals gained a 5-1-1 majority in 1992, and reverted to a 4-2-1 majority in 1996.

The Liberal vote collapsed in 1998 when Braddon’s seats were cut to five, and the Liberals lost two of their seats, as did Greens MP Di Hollister. The ALP gained a third seat, for a 3-2 split. This result was maintained in 2002, 2006 and 2010. It was the only seat at the 2002 and 2006 elections where the Greens failed to elect an MP.

In 2010, the ALP lost their third seat to the Greens. Two Labor sitting MPs were re-elected, while Steve Kons retired and his seat was won by the Greens’ Paul O’Halloran. On the Liberal side, Jeremy Rockliff was re-elected, while sitting Liberal MP Brett Whiteley was narrowly defeated by fellow Liberal Adam Brooks.

There was a 13% swing to the Liberal Party in 2014, while Labor lost 17% and the Greens lost 6%. 7% of the electorate voted for the Palmer United Party (at the time represented in the Senate by Jacqui Lambie). The Greens lost their sole seat, while Labor also lost one of their two seats. The Liberal Party doubled their representation from two to four.

The Liberal Party lost one of their four seats in 2018, with Labor regaining their second seat.

Candidates

• Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
  • Brenton Jones
  • Kim Swanson
• Labor
  • Shane Broad*
  • Amanda Diprose
  • Anita Dow*
  • Justine Keay
  • Michelle Rippon
• Liberal
  • Adam Brooks
  • Felix Ellis*
  • Lara Hendricks
  • Roger Jaensch*
  • Jeremy Rockliff*
  • Stacey Sheehan
• Greens
  • Darren Briggs
  • Maureen Corbett
  • Tammy Milne
  • Emily Murray
  • Phill Parsons
• Ungrouped
  • Craig Garland
  • Liz Hamer
  • Matthew Morgan

Assessment
This is one of the strongest electorates in Tasmania for the Liberal Party. The Liberals need to retain their three seats to have a shot at regaining a majority. This is the strongest part of the state for Jacqui Lambie – it’s hard to see her party winning a seat but this would be the best chance.

2018 result

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into six areas. Polling places in the Circular Head, Waratah/Wynyard and West Coast LGAs were divided into North West and South West. Polling places in Devonport and Latrobe council areas have been grouped into one group. Polling places in Burnie and Central Coast council areas have been grouped together separately.

Booths on King Island have been grouped together, with those in the sparsely populated west of the electorate’s mainland split between North West and South West.

The Liberal Party topped the poll in every area, with a vote ranging from 49.4% in Burnie to 59.9% in Devonport-Latrobe.

The Labor vote ranged from 22.1% on King Island to 34.7% in Burnie.

The Jacqui Lambie Network came third, with a primary vote ranging from 5.5% on King Island to 7.8% in the south-west.

Election results in Braddon at the 2018 Tasmanian election
Toggle between primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor Party and the Greens.

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