Lyons – Tasmania 2018

Incumbent MPs

• Guy Barnett (LIB), since 2014.
• Rene Hidding (LIB), since 1996.
• David Llewellyn (ALP), since 2014. Previously Member for Lyons 1986-2010.
• Mark Shelton (LIB), since 2010.
• Rebecca White (ALP), since 2010.

Geography
Tasmania’s largest seat by area, Lyons includes parts of every region of the state. The seat stretches from the outskirts of Devonport and Launceston in the north to the outskirts of Hobart in the south, as well as the central highlands and the east coast of Tasmania.

History
Lyons was first created for the 1986 election, sharing a name and boundaries with the federal electorate of Lyons. This replaced the seat of Wilmot, which had previously covered central Tasmania since the introduction of proportional representation in 1909.

Wilmot tended to favour conservative parties, and the conservative parties held the district by a 4-2 margin for the first five elections under proportional representation. At the 1922 election, the Nationalists lost two of their four seats to the Country Party.

In 1925, the ALP won a third seat for the first time, while the other Country Party seat was won by an independent. The major parties each won three seats in 1928, before the Nationalists returned to a 4-2 majority in 1931. The fourth Nationalist seat was lost to an independent in 1934, and Wilmot produced a 3-3 split in 1937. The ALP won a 4-2 majority once only, in 1941, before Wilmot reverted to a 3-3 split between the ALP and the Liberal Party at the 1946, 1948, 1950, 1955 and 1956 elections.

When a seventh seat was added in 1959, the ALP won a fourth seat. The Liberals and ALP maintained at least three seats each from 1959 until 1989, with the major parties competing over the seventh seat. The ALP won a 4-3 majority in 1959, 1964, 1972, 1976 and 1979, with the Liberals winning four seats in 1969, 1982 and the renamed seat of Lyons in 1986.

The 1989 election saw the ALP lose their third seat to independent Green Christine Milne. This 4-2-1 split was maintained in 1992. As part of the swing away from the Liberal government in 1996, the ALP regained its third seat off the Liberals.

The reduction in numbers in Lyons in 1998 saw Milne’s seat and one of the three Liberal seats eliminated, producing a 3-2 split for the ALP. The 2002 election saw the Liberals lose yet another seat to Greens candidate Tim Morris. The ALP won three seats, alongside one Green and two Liberals. This result was maintained in 2006.

In 2010, the ALP lost their third seat to the Liberal Party. Labor MPs David Llewellyn and Heather Butler both lost their seats, which went to the ALP’s Rebecca White and the Liberal Party’s Mark Shelton.

The Liberal Party gained a third seat in 2014 off the Greens, with Tim Morris losing his seat after twelve years in parliament.

Candidates

• Jacqui Lambie Network
  • Michael Kent
  • Chris Reynolds
  • Bob Vervaart
• Liberal
  • Guy Barnett*
  • Rene Hidding*
  • Jane Howlett
  • Mark Shelton*
  • John Tucker
• Labor
  • Jenna Butler
  • Darren Clark
  • Gerrard Gaffney
  • Janet Lambert
  • Rebecca White*
  • Kylie Wright
• Greens
  • Fraser Brindley
  • Lucy Landon-Lane
  • Glenn Millar
  • Hannah Rubenach-Quinn
  • Garry Whisson
• Shooters, Fishers & Farmers
  • Matthew Allen
  • Shane Broadby
  • Carlo Di Falco
  • Andrew Harvey
  • Wayne Turale
• Ungrouped
  • Tennille Murtagh
  • Kim Peart

Assessment
The Liberal Party is defending three seats – which is possible but not easy. Labor won three seats in this electorate as recently as 2006. The Greens will also be helping to make a comeback.

2014 result

Booth breakdown

Lyons was divided into three parts:

• Central – Break O’Day, Central Highlands, Glamorgan/Spring Bay, Northern Midlands and Southern Midlands council areas.
• North – Kentish, Latrobe, Meander Valley and West Tamar council areas.
• South – Brighton, Derwent Valley, Sorell and Tasman council areas.

The electorate tends to get more right-wing as you move north – Labor and Liberal were neck-and-neck in the south, while the Liberals more than tripled the Labor vote in the north.

The Liberal Party topped the vote in all three areas, with a vote ranging from 41% in the south to 60.5% in the north.

The Labor vote ranged from 17.3% in the north to 38.4% in the south.

The Greens vote ranged from 9.8% in the centre to 13.7% in the north.

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