Denison – Tasmania 2010

Incumbent MPs

• Michael Hodgman (LIB), since 2001. Previously MLC for Huon 1966-1974, federal Member for Denison 1975-1987, state Member for Denison 1992-1998.
• Grame Sturges (ALP), since 2002. Minister for Infrastructure.
• David Bartlett (ALP), since 2004. Premier of Tasmania.
• Lisa Singh (ALP), since 2006. Minister for Corrections and Consumer Protection and Minister for Workplace Relations.
• Cassy O’Connor (GRN), since 2008*.

*O’Connor filled a casual vacancy caused by the resignation of Greens leader Peg Putt, who had been Member for Denison since 1993.

Geography
Denison covers the suburbs of Hobart on the western shores of the Derwent River. The seat covers Hobart and Glenorchy LGAs as well as northern parts of Kingborough LGA. The seat includes the Hobart CBD and is by far the most compact seat in Tasmania.

Redistribution
The redistribution enlarged Denison by extending the southern border to the Huon Highway.

History
Denison was first created as a state electorate in 1909, when Tasmania moved to a system of proportional representation with each district electing six members. Denison has always had the same boundaries as the federal electorate of the same name.

The seat first elected four Anti-Socialists and two Labor MPs in 1909. The 1912 election produced an even split of 3 Labor and 3 Liberals, which was maintained at the next four elections. At the 1925 election, the ALP won four out of six seats, as part of ALP’s first majority government in Tasmania, led by Premier Joseph Lyons.

Denison reverted to a 3-3 split in 1928, before the Nationalists won a 4-2 split as part of their landslide win in 1931. The 1934 election saw the ALP recover and they won 3 seats in Denison, alongside two Nationalists and one independent, George Carruthers, who supported an ALP minority government.

The ALP won a more decisive victory in 1937, which saw 4 Labor MPs elected in Denison. This was maintained in 1941, and an independent won a seat off the ALP in 1946, producing a 3-2-1 split. The 1948 election saw three Labor, one Liberal and two independents win seats in Denison.

One of those independent seats was won back by the Liberal Party in 1950, and the 1955 and 1956 elections saw a result of 3 Labor and 3 Liberal MPs in Denison. These two elections produced identical results where the two parties won three seats each in all five districts. This took place despite the ALP winning approximately 7% more than the Liberals at both elections. This ended with the House of Assembly being increased to thirty-five seats at the 1959, when an independent won the seventh seat in Denison.

The Liberal Party won a 4-3 majority in 1964 and 1969, which helped end the Labor government which ruled Tasmania from 1934 to 1969. Denison’s seventh seat went back to the ALP in 1972, when Labor won a majority in Tasmania, but the ALP government managed to win a majority in 1976 despite the Liberals winning the seventh seat in Denison.

The 1979 election gave the Labor government of Doug Lowe a 20-15 majority, including four seats in Denison. The result, however, was invalidated later in 1979 due to violations of campaign spending laws, and a by-election was held in early 1980, which saw two key events that shaped Tasmanian politics. Along with three Labor and three Liberal MPs, the seventh seat was won by Norm Sanders of the Democrats. In addition, internal conflict in the ALP saw the party’s Left hand out how-to-vote cards putting Deputy Premier Neil Batt fourth on their ticket, which led to the introduction of Robson Rotation.

The 1982 election was a landslide for the Liberal Party, who won a 19-14-2 majority in the House of Assembly. Sole Democrats MP Norm Sanders was re-elected in Denison along with four Liberals and two Labor MPs. This was the only time during the period of Denison electing seven MPs that either major party failed to elect at least three MPs in Denison. Director of the Tasmanian Wilderness Society Dr Bob Brown also won 8% of the vote as an independent.

Sanders resigned from Parliament in late 1982 at the height of the Franklin Dam campaign, and Brown won Sanders’ seat on a countback of votes from the previous election.

At the 1986 election Brown was reelected as a “Green Independent”, alongside three from each of the major parties. This pattern of 3 Labor, 3 Liberal and 1 Green was maintained until the reduction in the size of the House of Assembly in 1998, with Brown being succeeded by Peg Putt in 1993.

After two periods of minority governments with the balance of power being held by the Greens, the Labor and Liberal parties agreed to cut the number of seats at the 1998 election from 35 to 25, with each district electing five MPs. The 1998 election saw the ALP and Liberal Party lose a seat in Denison, with Peg Putt surviving as the only Tasmanian Greens MP.

The 2002 election saw the reelection of the Labor government led by Denison MP Jim Bacon, and it saw the Liberal Party reduced to a sole seat in Denison, alongside one Green and three Labor MPs. This result was maintained at the 2006 election.

Candidates

• Group A
  • Andrew Wilkie (IND), former intelligence whistleblower and Greens federal candidate for Bennelong (2004) and Tasmanian Senate (2007).
• Group B (ALP)
  • David Bartlett (ALP)*, Premier of Tasmania
  • Lisa Singh (ALP)*, Minister for Corrections and Consumer Protection and Minister for Workplace Relations.
  • Graeme Sturges (ALP)*, Minister for Infrastructure.
  • Madeleine Ogilvie (ALP)
  • Scott Bacon (ALP), son of former Premier Jim Bacon.
• Group C (LIB)
  • Elise Archer (LIB), Hobart City Alderman.
  • Jenny Branch (LIB), Glenorchy City Alderman.
  • Matthew Groom (LIB), son of former Premier Ray Groom.
  • Matt Stevenson (LIB)
  • Richard Lowrie (LIB), Glenorchy City Alderman.
• Group D (GRN)
  • Cassy O’Connor (GRN)*, Greens lead candidate, sitting MP.
  • Helen Burnet(GRN), Deputy Mayor of Hobart
  • Kartika Franks (GRN)
  • Penelope Ann (GRN)
  • Peter Cover (GRN)
• Group E (SA)
  • Melanie Barnes (SA)

Political situation
The Greens will safely retain their single seat, so O’Connor shouldn’t have trouble winning re-election. At least one seat will go to a Liberal candidate, although none of the Liberals stand out clearly as the candidate who will win that seat. The ALP should comfortably retain two seats, leaving the seat of Graeme Sturges as possibly vulnerable. Sturges has been gaffe-prone over recent years and was the last candidate elected in 2006.

Both the Liberals and Greens, while aiming to win a second seat, will suffer from a lack of stand-out candidates. None of the Liberals are particularly high-profile or stand out as vote-getters. While O’Connor shouldn’t have trouble retaining the seat held before her by Peg Putt and Bob Brown, the high Greens vote in 2006 was largely driven by Peg Putt, who was the only candidate to win a full quota in primary votes. While Helen Burnet managed to win election as the directly-elected Deputy Mayor of the City of Hobart in 2009, this probably doesn’t make up for the loss of Putt.

Andrew Wilkie does not appear to have much of a chance of winning a seat. He will probably have an impact on the Greens primary vote, but most of that will flow back to the Greens in preferences.

2006 result

Booth breakdown
The ALP won their highest numbers in the Glenorchy area, while both the Liberals and Greens performed stronger in the City of Hobart. The ALP won the most votes in every Glenorchy booth, while in Hobart the ALP won 11, the Greens won 13 and the Liberals won 4. The Greens won the sole booth in Kingborough LGA.

Booths have been divided into six suburb areas. The ALP won four of these areas. The ALP won over 60% in Glenorchy, Claremont and Moonah. In New Town and Lenah Valley, the ALP came first with 44% to 26% each for Greens and Liberals. The area around the centre of Hobart was won by the Greens, who polled over 40%. In Sandy Bay and surrounding areas the ALP came third, with the Liberals winning on 36%.