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Greens have done really well here, is there another seat where there vote is higher?
@SpaceFish – I believe the Greens have polled over 20% in Heysen at least once, they did in 2022 and I have a vague memory they also did in 2014. They’ve come second there a few times.
Back to Dunstan, the demographics here suggest it is likely a LIB v GRN contest and I feel a teal will do well in this area.
I thought Greens did better in Unley but double checked and it was 18.7% – slightly below their Dunstan by-election performance. With Unley still being Liberals held, Greens have more cause to challenge than a traditional Liberal seat with a Labor incumbent.
James is right about Heysen and that remains the Greens best prospect of a gain. It’s also an area where it will be hard for Greens to outcompete a teal (same is true for Unley tbh)
Greens cracked 20% in federal Adelaide (and 23% 3CP) in 2022 but have not been able to get it together for the state seat. In 2025 they explicitly focusing on Sturt and preselected a uni student, and they announced Adelaide with the same time and energy that they announced a bunch of other SA candidates. IIRC the 2022 state candidate was a late replacement too.
All that to say it’s not clear where or even if Greens will be able to get their first lower house seats (not counting serial party hopper Kris Hanna’s brief stint as a Green MP)