LIB 25.3%
Incumbent MP
Nick McBride, since 2018.
Geography
South-eastern parts of South Australia. MacKillop stretches from the mouth of the Murray River to the border with the seat of Mount Gambier at the south-eastern corner of the state. The seat covers Bordertown, Naracoorte, Penola, Keith, Millicent and Tintinara.
Redistribution
MacKillop expanded north, gaining the Southern Mallee council area and the remainder of the Coorong council area from Hammond. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 25% to 25.3%.
History
The electorate of MacKillop was created in 1993, as a renaming of the former seat of Victoria, which had existed continuously since 1965.
William Rodda won Victoria at the 1965 election for the Liberal and Country League, and held the seat until his retirement in 1985.
The Liberal Party’s Dale Baker won Victoria in 1985. Baker served as Liberal leader from 1990 to 1992, but didn’t lead the party to an election.
Baker was re-elected to the renamed seat of MacKillop in 1993, but four years later lost the seat to independent candidate Mitch Williams.
Williams joined the Liberal Party in 1999, and was re-elected as a Liberal MP at the next four elections. Williams served as Liberal Party deputy leader from 2010 to 2012.
Williams retired in 2018, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate Nick McBride.
- Nick McBride (Liberal)
- Mark Braes (Labor)
- Dayle Baker (Family First)
- Jonathan Pietzsch (Nationals)
- Pam Giehr (One Nation)
Assessment
MacKillop is a very safe Liberal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Nick Mcbride | Liberal | 11,346 | 54.8 | -10.2 | 55.6 |
| Tracy Hill | SA-Best | 3,902 | 18.8 | +18.8 | 19.1 |
| Hilary Wigg | Labor | 2,022 | 9.8 | -4.9 | 10.0 |
| Richard Bateman | Australian Christians | 1,799 | 8.7 | +1.1 | 8.0 |
| Jon Ey | Independent | 1,142 | 5.5 | +5.5 | 4.8 |
| Donella Peters | Greens | 492 | 2.4 | -3.3 | 2.4 |
| Informal | 882 | 4.1 |
2018 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Nick Mcbride | Liberal | 13,995 | 67.6 | 67.8 | |
| Tracy Hill | SA-Best | 6,708 | 32.4 | 32.2 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Nick Mcbride | Liberal | 15,519 | 75.0 | -1.7 | 75.3 |
| Hilary Wigg | Labor | 5,184 | 25.0 | +1.7 | 24.7 |
Booths in MacKillop have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 67.5% in the south to 79% in the centre.
SA-Best came second, with a primary vote ranging from 15.1% in the centre to 22.2% in the south.
| Voter group | SAB prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 18.8 | 78.4 | 6,518 | 27.6 |
| South | 22.2 | 67.5 | 6,071 | 25.8 |
| Central | 15.1 | 79.0 | 5,005 | 21.2 |
| Other votes | 19.6 | 76.7 | 5,982 | 25.4 |
Election results in MacKillop at the 2018 South Australian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Liberal vs SA-Best), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, SA-Best and Labor.
This in the news today:
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/liberal-mp-considering-quitting-party-becoming-an-independent/news-story/60f3038b1ff4e828791a7eac30be11f4
Will be interesting if anything comes of this, considering the current hold the minority Marshall government has.
As mentioned in Kavel post, Nick McBride has decided to stay with team Liberal.
Nats running in a number of rural seats this time, wonder if they can capitalise on Liberal disunity
Well it seems all murmuring over the past 2 years has come to fruition, Nick deciding to pull the pin and become an independent. Surprised he didn’t do this at the election, but I guess he saw his best chances at re-election with the Liberals.
Relevant article: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-06/nick-mcbride-quits-liberal-party/102568026
This leaves the Liberals with just 15 seats, their lowest mark since 2006 Election, and since the mid-70’s as the current Liberal Party iteration.
@Politics_Obsessed will be interesting in 2026 what happens here considering he’s defected.