LIB 7.1%
Incumbent MP
Steven Marshall, since 2014. Previously Member for Norwood 2010-2014.
Geography
Eastern suburbs. Dunstan covers the suburbs of College Park, Evandale, Firle, Hackney, Joslin, Kent Town, Marden, Maylands, Payneham South, Royston Park, St Morris, St Peters, Stepney, Trinity Gardens, Beulah Park and Kensington. Most of the electorate lies in the Norwood Payneham and St Peters council area, as well as part of the Burnside council area.
Redistribution
Dunstan lost Felistow and Glynde to Hartley and lost Dulwich and Rose Park to Bragg, while gaining Beulah Park, Kensington, Kensington Gardens and Kensington Park from Bragg. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 6.1% to 7.1%.
The electorate of Norwood was first created at the 1938 election. For most of that period, the seat has been held by the ALP. The Liberal Party has won the seat at only six elections, and the current member is the first Liberal to win the seat at multiple elections. Norwood was renamed Dunstan in 2014.
From 1938 to 1953, the ALP’s Frank Nieass and the Liberal and Country League’s Albert Moir alternated in the seat, switching back and forth over four terms.
In 1953, Moir was replaced by the ALP’s Don Dunstan. Dunstan served as Deputy Premier from 1965 to 1967, and then as Premier from 1967 to 1968 and from 1970 to 1979, when he retired from Parliament.
The ALP’s Greg Crafter won the March 1979 Norwood by-election. He lost the seat at the September 1979 general election to the Liberal Party’s Frank Webster.
That result was invalidated in court, and Crafter won the seat back at a 1980 by-election.
Crafter held the seat throughout the 1980s, until the 1993 election.
In 1993, the Liberal Party’s John Cummins won the seat, and held it until 1997.
Vini Ciccarello won Norwood back for the ALP in 1997. She was re-elected in 2002 and 2006.
The Liberal Party’s Steven Marshall won the seat at the 2010 election off Ciccarello.
Marshall was promoted to the Liberal Party frontbench in December 2011. In October 2012, he was elected deputy leader as part of a challenge to Liberal leader Isobel Redmond.
Redmond resigned in January 2013, and in February Marshall was elected as Liberal leader. Marshall led the Liberal Party to the 2014 election, winning re-election in his renamed seat of Dunstan. Marshall’s party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote, but failed to form government in a hung parliament. Marshall continued to lead the opposition until 2018, when he led the Liberal Party to power and became Premier.
- Steven Marshall (Liberal)
- Cressida O’Hanlon (Labor)
- Tony Holloway (Family First)
- Kay Moncrieff (Greens)
Assessment
Dunstan should be secure for Marshall in 2022.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Steven Marshall | Liberal | 10,517 | 47.0 | -3.4 | 49.0 |
| Matt Loader | Labor | 6,514 | 29.1 | -6.6 | 29.1 |
| Jack Noonan | SA-Best | 2,901 | 13.0 | +13.0 | 9.8 |
| Harriet De Kok | Greens | 1,892 | 8.4 | -2.7 | 9.1 |
| Ben Wilson | Dignity | 571 | 2.5 | +0.4 | 3.0 |
| Informal | 599 | 2.6 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Steven Marshall | Liberal | 12,566 | 56.1 | +2.5 | 57.1 |
| Matt Loader | Labor | 9,829 | 43.9 | -2.5 | 42.9 |
Booths in Dunstan have been divided into three areas: north-east, north-west and south.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.8% in the north-east to 59.5% in the north-west.
SA-Best did not contest the neighbouring seat of Bragg, which contributed a substantial part of the southern end of the electorate at the redistribution, which explains the much lower SA-Best vote and the fact that their vote has dropped in this electorate after the redistribution.
| Voter group | GRN prim | SAB prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 10.1 | 5.4 | 58.1 | 7,830 | 33.5 |
| North-East | 8.8 | 12.8 | 51.8 | 5,494 | 23.5 |
| North-West | 7.9 | 11.6 | 59.5 | 3,938 | 16.9 |
| Other votes | 9.0 | 11.6 | 59.0 | 6,078 | 26.0 |
Election results in Dunstan at the 2018 South Australian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor, SA-Best and the Greens.
It was reported in the Adelaide Advertiser there was a poll that had Steve Marshall behind 51 – 49 in this seat. The poll was commissioned by Utting Research which had Liberals 44, Labor 37, and Greens 12, and others 8. The poll was commissioned by the Shoppers union and apparently will put more resources in the seat to put pressure on Marshall.
Do I think he’s behind? Possibly. Will Marshall lose his seat on election night? Doubtful. Apparently Marshall was consider a chance of losing his seat last election before a poll on the eve of the election suggested he would hold.
Campbell Newman consistently was behind in Ashgrove in the polls. Marshall being Premier certainly has potential to win over some nervous nellies before the election to get over the line in his seat. And the poll would still have a margin of error that would also have to be taken into consideration. Marshall may not be loved as Premier but he’s not loathed like Newman was either.
Marshall has handled COVID well. Within the electorate there is a lot of angst re Planning and Heritage but I am not convinced that Labor will do any better. After all it is Labor’s bill we have inherited. The Greens would be far better so what we need is them in the Upper House to make reasonable amendments and also hopefully to bring in the Preservation of the Parklands, Adelaide as a Park City of the World. Tree Cover needs to be maintained and this is not happening under the currents government.
In 2018, the Liberals got about 52% 2PP in SA. Recent polling by YouGov has Labor ahead at 56% 2PP for the election. That’s a swing of 8%. ABC estimates the margin in Dunstan as 7.5%.
I don’t think we can be sure which way this seat will fall. Huge swings against governments can often sweep the leader out of their seat, even when they’re otherwise still fairly respected. John Howard experienced this – people didn’t actively hate Howard, the way they did Newman, but it was a strong swing, and it swept him out of his seat.
YouGov and Utting Research seem to agree, roughly. Is there any indication of a poll suggesting differently?
Electoral commission shows lib 51% there are not enough votes left to win now unless Labor got 52 to 53% on what remains. Think there is maybe 3000 left
ABC has projected Steven Marshall to retain. I know there has been speculation Labors canidate Cressida O’Hanlon could get a second crack at it as Marshall would likely quit politics and cause a bye-election. But so far Marshall has indicated publicly he would continue as the member for Dunstan in parliament.
I’m sorry but as much as I respect Antony Green. I don’t know how you can say this is a done deal with still 1/5 of the vote outstanding with an unknown amount of postals yet to count. I am not conceding this seat. Marshall is only up 51/49 and while **Most** of the time the trends continue. It isn’t 100% consistent, If he expands it further when it reaches 90% then I’d understand but it isn’t impossible for Labor to win most of the remaining votes.
I could also say the same thing about some of the seats that were called for Labor. 1/3 of the seats still have 20-30% of votes to be counted and it is disrespectful to voters to call the seats. Because someday there will be a time where a seat is forced to be uncalled (Like the Wentworth-by-election was)
Daniel
It is plainly obvious the trends from previous elections have continued for this election, given it is the first one where no significant covid elimination policies were in place. Postal votes will continue to favour the L/NP as their older voter base continue to come back to favour them. It’s not like WA where older voters voted for Labor in droves, tipping Nedlands, Churchlands and Warren-Blackwood narrowly over.
Daniel, also the full turnout is never 100%, the maximum is normally 90-95% so at 80% most vote (>90%) is already counted.
The Wentworth by-election was “uncalled” because postal votes (and pre-polls?) were far more Liberal leaning than election day votes.
In the case of Dunstan, many/most of the postals and pre-polls are in. Any outstanding declaration votes will probably go much the same way as the declaration votes already counted. That’s why the ABC can project the result. It’s not disrespectful to the voters (who will all have their votes counted), it’s basic election science.
Yes the seat is close but declaration votes have shown a trend roughly 53% to Marshall. He is now on roughly 51%…The outstanding votes are probably less than 3000.. Labor to win need to make up the gap about 200 …then gain a majority of what remains so they need 1700 from 3000 which is close to 60% of the vote…not possible
Mick – I wouldn’t quite say “not possible”, but it’s certainly improbable.
Basically, the question is about the sources of the delayed votes. If they’re ones that were sent later, it might be that there was a substantial swing in the last few days. I’m not saying that’s the case, but stranger things have happened.
Antony Green called it because the chance of it flipping now is small enough that it’s a safe call.