LIB 10.4%
Incumbent MP
Martin Hamilton-Smith (IND), since 1997.
Geography
Southern Adelaide. Waite covers the suburbs of Brown Hill Creek, Clapham, Hawthorn, Kingswood, Lower Mitcham, Lynton, Mitcham, Netherby, Pasadena, Springfield, St Marys, Torrens Park, Urrbrae, Westbourne Park as well as parts of Belair, Daw Park, Leawood Gardens and Panorama.
Redistribution
Waite lost St Marys, Pasadena, Panorama, Clapham and the remainder of Colonel Light Gardens to Elder, and gained Crafers West from Heysen, and Coromandel Valley, Eden Hills, Blackwood, Craigburn Farm, Hawthorndene and Glenalta from Davenport. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 11.4% to 10.4%.
History
The electorate of Waite has existed since 1993, when it mostly replaced the abolished district of Mitcham.
Mitcham had existed since 1938. The seat was held by Robin Millhouse from 1955, originally from the Liberal and Country League. He left the LCL in 1973 to join the Liberal Movement, and eventually served as the first Democrats member of Parliament from 1977 to 1982.
The 1982 Mitcham by-election was won by the Democrats’ Heather Southcott, but she lost the seat later that year at the general election to the Liberal Party’s Stephen Baker.
Baker held Mitcham until 1993, and then the renamed seat of Waite at the 1993 election. Baker served as Treasurer and Deputy Premier in the Brown government from 1993 until 1996, when both Brown and Baker were deposed from the Liberal Party leadership. Baker announced his retirement in late 1996, stepping down at the 1997 state election.
Martin Hamilton-Smith has held Waite since 1997. Hamilton-Smith led the Liberal Party from 2007 to 2009, and briefly served as deputy leader in 2010. Hamilton-Smith came within one vote of winning the leadership back in 2012, and was re-elected as a Liberal in 2014.
Hamilton-Smith resigned from the Liberal Party later in 2014 to sit as an independent, while also taking a ministry in the Labor minority government.
Candidates
- Cathi Tucker (Dignity)
- John Duncan (Conservatives)
- Cathy Hutchesson (Labor)
- Graham Davies (SA Best)
- Sam Duluk (Liberal)
- Brendan White (Greens)
Assessment
This is a hard seat to predict. Hamilton-Smith has held the seat for a long time, but it’s hard to predict how much support he would’ve lost thanks to his support of the Labor government. Duluk is the incumbent MP for a large part of the seat’s new territory, but has only represented the area since 2015. The seat was a good area for the Nick Xenophon Team in 2016, so SA Best could also be a factor here.
2014 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Martin Hamilton-Smith | Liberal | 12,585 | 54.8 | -0.1 | 53.0 |
| Rebekah Huppatz | Labor | 6,239 | 27.1 | -1.3 | 26.6 |
| Simon Hope | Greens | 2,639 | 11.5 | -1.4 | 15.1 |
| Steve Edmonds | Family First | 868 | 3.8 | +0.5 | 4.0 |
| Cathi Tucker | Dignity for Disability | 652 | 2.8 | +2.8 | 1.2 |
| Others | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 575 | 2.4 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Martin Hamilton-Smith | Liberal | 14,106 | 61.4 | -0.7 | 60.4 |
| Rebekah Huppatz | Labor | 8,877 | 38.6 | +0.7 | 39.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Waite have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 53.5% in the centre to 67.2% in the north.
The Greens vote ranged from 10.3% in the north to 19.5% in the centre.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 19.5 | 53.5 | 6,403 | 27.9 |
| South | 16.1 | 59.8 | 5,558 | 24.2 |
| North | 10.3 | 67.2 | 5,409 | 23.6 |
| Other votes | 13.6 | 59.9 | 5,568 | 24.3 |
Election results in Waite at the 2014 SA state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
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My prediction: Likely Liberal hold, especially with the Xenophon tide receding and Hamilton-Smith retiring.