LIB 20.1%
Incumbent MP
Dan van Holst Pellekaan, since 2010.
Geography
Northern parts of South Australia. Stuart stretches from the northern fringe of Adelaide to the Northern Territory, Queensland and New South Wales borders, and west to Port Augusta. The largest town in the electorate is Port Augusta.
Redistribution
Most of Stuart’s boundaries remained the same. Stuart gained Laura and Gladstone from Frome and lost Blanchetown and Morgan to Chaffey. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 20.5% to 20.1%.
History
The electorate of Stuart was first created for the 1938 election. The seat was abolished in 1993 and restored in 1997. The seat was always held by Labor prior to 1993, and has been Liberal-held since 1997.
Stuart was held by two Labor MPs over a 51-year period until 1989, when the seat was won by Labor MP Colleen Hutchison.
In 1993, Stuart was abolished and merged into the neighbouring seat of Eyre, and Hutchison lost to the sitting Liberal MP, Graham Gunn.
Gunn had won Eyre at the 1970 state election. He served as Speaker of the House of Assembly from 1993 to 1996.
In 1997, Eyre was renamed back to Stuart, and Gunn shifted to the newly-named seat.
Gunn held Stuart at the 2002 election, and narrowly held on in 2006.
At the 2010 election, Gunn retired and he was replaced by the Liberal Party’s Dan van Holst Pellekaan. van Holst Pellekaan was re-elected in 2014.
Candidates
- Brendan Fitzgerald (Greens)
- Dan van Holst Pellekaan (Liberal)
- Khatija Thomas (Labor)
Assessment
Stuart would normally be considered a safe Liberal seat. The seat is a strong area for the Nick Xenophon Team (ranked seventh at the 2016 federal election) so SA Best could pose a threat.
2014 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Dan Van Holst Pellekaan | Liberal | 13,806 | 65.7 | +13.3 | 64.2 |
| Josh Vines | Labor | 5,051 | 24.0 | -11.7 | 23.2 |
| Sylvia Holland | Family First | 1,128 | 5.4 | +0.8 | 5.2 |
| Brendan Fitzgerald | Greens | 1,035 | 4.9 | FALSE | 4.8 |
| Others | 2.7 | ||||
| Informal | 550 | 2.5 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Dan van Holst Pellekaan | Liberal | 14,812 | 70.5 | +12.8 | 70.1 |
| Josh Vines | Labor | 6,208 | 29.5 | -12.8 | 29.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Stuart have been divided into three parts: central, east and Port Augusta.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 63.4% in Port Augusta to 73.5% in the centre.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 70.5 | 5,306 | 25.2 |
| Port Augusta | 63.4 | 4,779 | 22.7 |
| Central | 73.5 | 4,277 | 20.3 |
| Other votes | 68.4 | 6,707 | 31.8 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Stuart at the 2014 SA state election
My prediction: Liberal hold, especially with SA Best not running here.