LIB 0.1%
Incumbent MP
Tom Kenyon (ALP), since 2006.
Geography
North-eastern Adelaide. Newland covers the suburbs of Banksia Park, Fairview Park, Forreston, Hope Valley, Kersbrook, Paracombe, Ridgehaven, St Agnes and Tea Tree Gully, and parts of Highbury, Houghton, Modbury and Vista. The seat also stretches east towards the Adelaide Hills.
Redistribution
Newland lost Surrey Downs and Redwood Park to Wright, and gained part of Modbury from Florey, Hope Valley Reservoir from Torrens, Paracombe from Morialta and Kersbrook and Forreston from Schubert. These changes flipped the seat from a 1.4% margin for Labor to a 0.1% margin for the Liberal Party.
History
Newland has existed as an electorate since since the 1977 election, and has alternated between Labor and Liberal members.
John Klunder won the seat for the ALP in 1977. He lost to the Liberal Party’s Brian Billard in 1979, and won the seat back in 1982. In 1985, he shifted to the seat of Todd, which he held until 1993.
Dianne Gayler won Newland for the ALP in 1985, and held it for one term until 1989, when she lost to the Liberal Party’s Dorothy Kotz.
Kotz was the first Member for Newland to serve consecutive terms in the seat, and ended up serving four terms. Kotz served as a minister in the Liberal governments of the 1990s, and retired in 2006.
In 2006, a 12.5% swing to the ALP saw Tom Kenyon gain the seat. He was re-elected in 2010 and 2014 despite swings to the Liberal Party at both elections.
Candidates
- Stephanie Stewart (Greens)
- Martin Leedham (Conservatives)
- Shane Bailey (Independent)
- Richard Harvey (Liberal)
- Rajini Vasan (SA Best)
- Sandra Williams (Dignity)
- Tom Kenyon (Labor)
Assessment
Newland is very close and could go either way. The Nick Xenophon Team polled almost 29% here at the 2016 Senate election.
2014 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Glenn Docherty | Liberal | 9,269 | 41.8 | +3.8 | 42.9 |
| Tom Kenyon | Labor | 9,473 | 42.8 | -0.5 | 41.2 |
| Kate Horan | Family First | 1,774 | 8.0 | +1.1 | 8.3 |
| Mark Nolan | Greens | 1,641 | 7.4 | -0.6 | 7.7 |
| Informal | 700 | 3.1 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Glenn Docherty | Liberal | 10,763 | 48.6 | +1.2 | 50.1 |
| Tom Kenyon | Labor | 11,394 | 51.4 | -1.2 | 49.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Newland have been divided into three areas: east, north-west and south-west.
The Liberal Party won over 60% in the east of the seat, while Labor won 51-52% in the north-west and south-west.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-West | 48.0 | 7,708 | 34.8 |
| North-West | 48.8 | 7,187 | 32.4 |
| East | 60.5 | 1,720 | 7.8 |
| Other votes | 50.6 | 5,563 | 25.1 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Newland at the 2014 SA state election
My prediction: Giving this to Labor given Keynon’s incumbency, and success in marginal seat campaigns.