LIB 7.7%
Incumbent MP
Duncan McFetridge (IND), since 2002.
Geography
Western Adelaide. Morphett hugs the Adelaide coastline from West Beach to Somerton Park, and includes inland areas around Glengowrie. The seat also covers most of the Glenelg area.
Redistribution
Morphett shifted south-east, losing Glenelg North and West Beach to Colton and part of Somerton Park to Gibson, and gaining Park Holme from Elder and Plympton Park, Camden Park and part of Plympton from Ashford. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 12.9% to 7.7%.
History
The electorate of Morphett has existed since the 1977 election. The seat was won at that first election by the ALP, but has been Liberal-held since 1979.
Terrence Groom held the seat from 1977 to 1979, and was succeeded by the Liberal Party’s John Oswald.
Oswald held the seat for over twenty years. He served as a minister in the mid-1990s, and then as Speaker of the House of Assembly from 1997 to 2002, when he retired.
Duncan McFetridge has held Morphett since the 2002 election. McFetridge served on the Liberal frontbench until January 2017. McFetridge lost Liberal preselection in May 2017, and subsequently resigned from the Liberal Party to sit as an independent.
Candidates
- Mark Siebentritt (Labor)
- Monica Kwan (Dignity)
- Simon Jones (SA Best)
- Duncan McFetridge (Independent)
- Chris Crabbe (Greens)
- Stephen Patterson (Liberal)
Assessment
Morphett would ordinarily be seen as a reasonably safe Liberal seat, but the sitting MP’s disendorsement and independent candidacy will complicate matters. He could win the seat himself, or his preferences could be decisive between the major parties. McFetridge splitting the Liberal vote could also create space for Nick Xenophon’s SA Best party. The Nick Xenophon Team polled relatively poorly in Morphett in 2016, ranking 43rd out of 47 seats, but they still managed 22.8% after the exclusion of minor parties, and such a vote could be enough to be in play in a four-horse race.
2014 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Duncan Mcfetridge | Liberal | 12,164 | 57.7 | +3.1 | 52.3 |
| Tim Looker | Labor | 5,973 | 28.3 | -3.7 | 32.4 |
| Matthew Carey | Greens | 2,128 | 10.1 | +0.9 | 10.2 |
| Bob Randall | Family First | 808 | 3.8 | +0.3 | 4.1 |
| Dignity for Disability | 0.7 | ||||
| FREE Australia | 0.3 | ||||
| Informal | 547 | 2.5 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Duncan McFetridge | Liberal | 13,264 | 62.9 | +2.4 | 57.7 |
| Tim Looker | Labor | 7,809 | 37.1 | -2.4 | 42.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Morphett have been divided into three areas: north-east, south-east and south-west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 52.6% in the north-east to 63.1% in the south-west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-West | 11.2 | 63.1 | 6,760 | 29.4 |
| South-East | 9.4 | 55.2 | 6,175 | 26.9 |
| North-East | 8.7 | 52.6 | 4,044 | 17.6 |
| Other votes | 10.9 | 58.3 | 6,003 | 26.1 |
Election results in Morphett at the 2014 SA state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
My prediction: Normally a safe Liberal seat, Morphett might be the hardest seat to predict in 2018 – a long serving member turned Independent, SA Best… this one’s doing my head in!
Likely Liberal hold, unless McFeteridge’s preferences leak enough to help Labor. Bear in mind, Morphett was Labor in 2006, when the Liberals were at their worst, so if Labor gain this, they will definitely win statewide with a majority.
Oops, should have said Morphett was Liberal-held in 2006, even when Labor won in a huge landslide.