LIB 3.7%
Incumbent MP
Paul Caica (ALP), since 2002.
Geography
Western suburbs of Adelaide. Colton covers the suburbs of Fulham, Fulham Gardens, Grange, Henley Beach, Henley Beach South, Kidman Park, Lockleys, Glenelg North and West Beach.
Redistribution
Colton shifted south, losing Seaton to Lee and gaining West Beach and Glenelg North from Morphett and the airport from West Torrens. These changes flipped the seat from a marginal Labor seat with a 1.5% margin to a Liberal seat with a 3.7% margin.
History
Colton has existed since the 1993 election, and is the only seat to have always been held by the sitting government since that time.
Steve Condous, the lord mayor of Adelaide, won the seat in 1993 for the Liberal Party. He retained the seat by a narrow margin in 1997.
In 2002, Condous retired and was replaced by the ALP’s Paul Caica. Caica was re-elected in 2006, and was then promoted to the ministry. Caica served in the ministry until early 2013, and won a fourth term in 2014.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Paul Caica is not running for re-election.
- Paul Petherick (Greens)
- Jassmine Wood (SA Best)
- Matt Cowdrey (Liberal)
- Ted Evans (Dignity)
- Angela Vaughan (Labor)
Assessment
This seat has changed quite substantially, and this gives the Liberal Party a head start. They are also aided by the absence of the sitting MP. Having said that, Labor could certainly win this seat. The Nick Xenophon Team polled 22.6% here in the Senate in 2016, which was their fourth-lowest vote.
2014 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Joe Barry | Liberal | 10,363 | 44.7 | +4.7 | 49.4 |
| Paul Caica | Labor | 10,394 | 44.8 | -1.5 | 39.6 |
| Andrew Payne | Greens | 1,584 | 6.8 | -1.4 | 7.5 |
| Kym Mckay | Family First | 859 | 3.7 | +0.2 | 3.5 |
| Informal | 656 | 2.7 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Joe Barry | Liberal | 11,262 | 48.5 | +2.2 | 53.7 |
| Paul Caica | Labor | 11,938 | 51.5 | -2.2 | 46.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Colton have been divided into three areas: east, north and south.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, with 53% in the east and 57% in the south. Labor polled 52.2% in the north.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 57.1 | 7,299 | 31.6 |
| North | 47.8 | 5,090 | 22.0 |
| East | 53.0 | 4,907 | 21.2 |
| Other votes | 53.8 | 5,838 | 25.2 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Colton at the 2014 SA state election
Colton’s bellwether record goes back much further than 1993 – its predecessor, Henley Beach, which covered much of the same territory, voted for a government MP since 1970.
Can’t see the trend breaking now, unless Xenophon wins a few seats (this isn’t really prime NXT/SA Best territory, so even if he runs a candidate here, he or she is unlikely to win) and makes a deal with the other (i.e. party that loses Colton) side.
Those Glenelg North/West Beach booths, which were in safe Liberal Morphett last time, should also see more vigorous campaigning.
High profile Liberal candidate
My prediction: Voting with the state since 1970, Colton shouldn’t break this record, although, like with everything in life, there’s a first time for everything. Liberal, because why not?