LIB 2.6%
Incumbent MP
Corey Wingard, member for Mitchell since 2014.
Geography
Southern Adelaide. The seat covers Sheidow Park, Trott Park, Old Reynella, Seaview Downs, Dover Gardens, Seacombe Heights, Seacombe Gardens and Sturt, and parts of Darlington, Bedford Park, Clovelly Park, Mitchell Park, Oaklands Park and Warradale.
Redistribution
Black primarily replaced the seat of Mitchell, while also taking in southern parts of Bright. The seat gained Sheidow Park, Trott Park, O’Halloran Hill and parts of Darlington from Mitchell, and gained Marino and Hallett Cove from Bright. The seat also gained small areas from Fisher and Davenport. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 1.2% to 2.6%.
History
The seat of Mitchell existed from 1970 until 2018, and was dominated by the ALP for most of that time.
Ronald Payne held the seat from 1970 until 1989, when he was replaced by another Labor MP, Paul Holloway.
In 1993, Holloway lost the seat to the Liberal Party’s Colin Caudell. Holloway was appointed to the South Australian Legislative Council in 1995, serving until 2011. Caudell went on to serve as a minister in the Rann government.
After one term, Caudell lost in 1997 to the ALP’s Kris Hanna. Hanna was re-elected in 2002, but in 2003 resigned from the ALP and joined the South Australian Greens.
Hanna was planning to run for re-election as a Green in 2006, but resigned from the Greens in February 2006, running for re-election as an independent.
At the 2006 election, the ALP’s Rosemary Clancy polled over 40% of the primary vote, with Hanna second on 24%, but Hanna benefited from very strong preferences and won the seat with 50.6% of the two-party-preferred vote.
At the 2010 election, Hanna increased his primary vote to 28%, and the ALP vote fell to less than 34% thanks to a 9% swing. Despite the shift in primary votes, Hanna lost due to an increased Liberal primary vote. Hanna fell into third place by a 149-vote margin, and Labor’s Alan Sibbons won the seat with a 2.1% margin over the Liberal candidate.
Sibbons held the seat for one term, and lost in 2014 to Liberal candidate Corey Wingard.
Candidates
- Randall Wilson (Labor)
- Lionel Zschech (Conservatives)
- Rob De Jonge (Independent)
- Dami Barnes (Greens)
- Anastasia Svetlichny (Dignity)
- David Speirs (Liberal)
Assessment
Black is very marginal.
2014 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Corey Wingard | Liberal | 7,995 | 36.6 | +8.1 | 42.5 |
| Alan Sibbons | Labor | 7,309 | 33.5 | -0.7 | 36.0 |
| Kris Hanna | Independent | 4,006 | 18.4 | -9.4 | 8.8 |
| Simon Roberts-Thomson | Greens | 1,473 | 6.8 | +1.6 | 7.8 |
| Barbara Bishop | Family First | 1,034 | 4.7 | +0.4 | 4.3 |
| Others | 0.6 | ||||
| Informal | 711 | 3.2 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Corey Wingard | Liberal | 11,161 | 51.2 | +3.6 | 52.6 |
| Alan Sibbons | Labor | 10,656 | 48.8 | -3.6 | 47.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Newland have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas ranging from 50.3% in the south-west to 52.1% in the north.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 52.1 | 7,578 | 30.4 |
| South-West | 50.3 | 6,142 | 24.6 |
| South-East | 51.4 | 4,958 | 19.9 |
| Other votes | 53.6 | 6,250 | 25.1 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Black at the 2014 SA state election
My prediction: Likely Liberal hold.