ALP 11.3%
Incumbent MP
Lee Odenwalder, since 2010.
Geography
Northern fringe of Adelaide. Most of the population lies in the Elizabeth area, along with the suburbs of Hillbank, Salisbury Park, Surrey Downs, Fairview Park, Yatala Vale and Upper Hermitage and parts of Salisbury Heights, Greenwith and Golden Grove.
Redistribution
Little Para shifted to the north and west, losing Fairview Park and Upper Hermitage to Newland, and gained Elizabeth South from Taylor and Elizabeth Park from Napier. The ALP’s margin increased from 6.7% to 11.3%.
History
The electorate of Little Para was a renaming of the former electorate of Elizabeth in 2006, which had existed since 1970. The electorate has mostly been won by Labor MPs, apart from a period of independent rule in the 1980s.
John Clark won the seat in 1970, and then the ALP’s Peter Duncan won Elizabeth in 1973.
Duncan served as Attorney-General from 1975 to 1979, and resigned from Elizabeth in 1984 to run for the federal seat of Makin. He served as a federal minister from 1987 to 1990, and held Makin until 1996.
The 1984 by-election was won by Elizabeth mayor Martyn Evans, running as an independent Labor candidate. He was re-elected as an independent at the 1985 and 1989 elections, and rejoined the ALP in 1993. He served as a minister in the dying days of the Labor government in 1992 and 1993.
Evans resigned from Elizabeth in 1994 to run for the federal Bonython by-election. Evans went on to serve as a Labor frontbencher from 1996 to 2001. At the 2004 election, Bonython was abolished and Evans ran unsuccessfully for the federal seat of Wakefield.
Lea Stevens was elected at the 1994 by-election. She won re-election in 1997, 2002 and in 2006 for the renamed electorate of Little Para. She served as a minister in the Rann government from 2002 to 2005.
Stevens retired in 2010, and Little Para was won by the ALP’s Lee Odenwalder.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Lee Odenwalder is running for re-election. The Liberal Party is running Damien Pilkington. The Greens are running Samantha Blake. Family First are running Lloyd Rowlands. Dignity for Disability are running Scott Whelan.
- Lee Odenwalder (Labor)
- Lloyd Rowlands (Family First)
- Damien Pilkington (Liberal)
- Scott Whelan (Dignity for Disability)
- Samantha Blake (Greens)
Assessment
Little Para is a safe Labor seat.
2010 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Lee Odenwalder | ALP | 10,332 | 47.5 | -8.4 |
Franz Knoll | LIB | 7,583 | 34.9 | +10.4 |
David Somerville | FF | 2,205 | 10.1 | +1.2 |
Paul Sharpe | GRN | 1,612 | 7.4 | +2.7 |
2010 two-party-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Lee Odenwalder | ALP | 12,313 | 56.7 | -10.6 |
Franz Knoll | LIB | 9,419 | 43.3 | +10.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas: central, north, south and east.
The ALP won a majority in three out of four areas, ranging from 56.2% in the south to 67.4% in the north. The Liberal Party won a 55.4% in the east of the seat, which has a much smaller population.
Family First came third in the electorate, with a vote ranging from 9.1% in the east to 11.2% in the centre.
Voter group | FFP % | GRN % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of ordinary votes |
Central | 11.17 | 7.30 | 64.66 | 6,393 | 33.85 |
South | 10.90 | 6.68 | 56.22 | 5,585 | 29.57 |
North | 9.96 | 5.87 | 67.42 | 5,454 | 28.87 |
East | 9.13 | 6.04 | 44.61 | 1,457 | 7.71 |
Other votes | 10.86 | 8.21 | 59.24 | 4,750 |
My prediction: Labor retain.