ALP 8.8%
Incumbent MP
John Hill, since 1997.
Geography
Southern Adelaide. Kaurna covers the southern coast of Adelaide from Christies Beach to Aldinga Beach.
Redistribution
Kaurna lost Old Noarlunga and the balance of Noarlunga Downs to Mawson, and parts of Christies Beach to Reynell. The ALP’s margin increased from 8.6% to 8.8%.
History
Kaurna has existed since the 1993 election. The electorate was won by the Liberal Party in 1993, and has been held by the ALP since 1997.
Lorraine Rosenberg won the seat for the Liberal Party in 1993, despite the seat on paper being a notional Labor seat.
John Hill won the seat for the ALP in 1997. He served as a minister in the Labor government from 2002 to 2011, and was re-elected at the 2002, 2006 and 2010 elections.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP John Hill is not running for re-election. The ALP is running Chris Picton. The Liberal Party is running Ben Caudle. The Greens are running Maureen Cullen.
- Maureen Cullen (Greens)
- Ben Caudle (Liberal)
- Kym (Richo) Richardson (Independent)
- Layla Nahavandi (Family First)
- Chris Picton (Labor)
Assessment
Kaurna would be considered safe in most circumstances.
2010 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
John Hill | ALP | 10,353 | 49.4 | -10.5 |
Trisha Bird | LIB | 7,036 | 33.6 | +12.9 |
Yvonne Wenham | GRN | 1,771 | 8.5 | +1.0 |
James Chappell | FF | 1,176 | 5.6 | -1.2 |
Marie Nicholls | DEM | 365 | 1.7 | -0.4 |
Jason Wuttke | FREE | 254 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
2010 two-party-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
John Hill | ALP | 12,290 | 58.6 | -13.3 |
Trisha Bird | LIB | 8,665 | 41.4 | +13.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The ALP won a majority in all three areas, ranging from 56.2% in the south to 61.5% in the north.
The Greens came third, with their vote ranging from 6.9% in the centre to 10.3% in the south.
Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of ordinary votes |
Central | 6.85 | 58.98 | 5,799 | 42.77 |
South | 10.34 | 56.18 | 4,169 | 30.74 |
North | 8.60 | 61.53 | 3,592 | 26.49 |
Other votes | 10.29 | 58.70 | 4,421 |
Kym Richardson (used to be the federal MP for Kingston, 2004-07) is running here as an inderpendent. Check out his content-free “website” for the obvious typo in the last sentence (he also spells the name of the electorate wrong).
http://www.kaurna.com.au/
Google his name and you’ll find Facebook and Youtube pages, but nothing approaching a proper website. (Also, news articles about his misadventures as an ex-MP). He’s got no chance.
My prediction: Labor retain, and Kym Richardson to come fourth or fifth.
Prediction: ALP Retain