ALP 3.1%
Incumbent MP
Scott Stewart, since 2015.
Geography
Central Townsville. The seat covers the Townsville CBD and the suburbs of Castle Hill, Garbutt, Mount Louisa and Bohle, as well as Magnetic Island and Palm Island.
History
The seat of Townsville has existed continuously since 1970, and previously existed from 1878 to 1960.
The seat has been dominated by the Labor Party for most of the twentieth century, although Labor domination has occasionally been punctuated by Coalition victories.
The ALP had held the seat for all but three years from 1915 to 1960, but after the seat was restored in 1972 it was won by the Liberal Party’s Norman Scott-Young. He held it until 1983.
The 1983 election was triggered by the breakdown in the coalition between Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s National Party and the Liberal Party, and a majority of Liberal MPs lost their seats, including Scott-Young.
Ken McElligott won Townsville for the ALP, but three years later lost to the National Party’s Tony Burreket.
Burreket lost to the ALP’s Ken Davies in 1989. In 1992, Davies moved to the neighbouring seat of Mundingburra. He retained Mundingburra by a bare 16-vote margin. The result was overturned in the courts in 1996. The ALP decided to replace Davies as the ALP candidate, and he ran as an independent. The Liberal Party won the race, and resulted in the ALP losing its parliamentary majority and the National-Liberal coalition forming a new government.
Geoff Smith was elected to Townsville for the ALP in 1992, and held it for two terms until 1998. He was succeeded in 1998 by Mike Reynolds. Reynolds served as a minister from 2004 to 2006 and as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 2006 to 2009, when he retired.
Mandy Johnstone was elected to Townsville in 2009 for the ALP. In 2012, Johnstone was defeated by LNP candidate John Hathaway.
Hathaway was defeated in 2015 by Labor’s Scott Stewart, and Stewart was re-elected in 2017 and 2020.
- Margie Ryder (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Alan Butt (One Nation)
- William Tento (Family First)
- Scott Stewart (Labor)
- Wesley Newman (Independent)
- Adam Baillie (Liberal National)
- Benjamin Tiley (Greens)
Assessment
Townsville is a marginal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Scott Stewart | Labor | 10,289 | 36.2 | +2.6 |
| John Hathaway | Liberal National | 9,508 | 33.4 | +2.5 |
| Joshua Schwarz | Katter’s Australian Party | 3,204 | 11.3 | +11.3 |
| Tom O’Grady | Greens | 2,366 | 8.3 | -2.5 |
| Clive Clarkson | One Nation | 1,293 | 4.5 | -15.4 |
| Samara Grumberg | Animal Justice | 554 | 1.9 | +2.0 |
| Toni Mcmahon | Informed Medical Options | 534 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Greg Dowling | United Australia | 520 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Clynton Hawks | North Queensland First | 157 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 1,484 | 5.0 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Scott Stewart | Labor | 15,099 | 53.1 | +2.7 |
| John Hathaway | Liberal National | 13,326 | 46.9 | -2.7 |
Booths in Townsville have been divided into four areas. Polling places on offshore islands have been grouped together, with the remainder split into centre, south and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 54.1% in the centre to 61.6% on the islands. Labor only polled 50.9% in the pre-poll vote.
Katter’s Australian Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 5.8% on the islands to 14% in the west.
| Voter group | KAP prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 11.0 | 54.1 | 3,900 | 13.7 |
| West | 14.0 | 56.9 | 2,340 | 8.2 |
| South | 11.5 | 54.7 | 1,972 | 6.9 |
| Islands | 5.8 | 61.6 | 1,457 | 5.1 |
| Pre-poll | 12.0 | 50.9 | 11,822 | 41.6 |
| Other votes | 10.4 | 52.9 | 6,934 | 24.4 |
Election results in Townsville at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and Katter’s Australian Party.
With these Townsville seats, you just don’t know anymore, everyone writes off Labor every time, I think the LNP will at LEAST win 2/3 of them in the CBD, Labor will probably hold 1 of them, that one I don’t know. But the LNP flipping all 3 CBD Townsville seats in 1 stroke after they were expected to gain them in 2020 despite the federal result a year before will be very challenging, unless they win more than 50 seats.
If LNP or Labor is in minority, I suspect it’s because the LNP failed to win all Townsville seats and only 1-2.
Thompson may have unfortunately romped home last year in Herbert, but that 3% swing he got would leave these Townsville seats on a knives edge if that swing to the LNP was repeatedly in this region.
If the LNP win all 3 Townsville seats + Caloundra, Nicklin, Hervey Bay, Bundaberg and a couple of other regional seats, Labor’s only hope would be to gain Everton (especially if Mander retires) and both Clayfield and Chatsworth.
Leaning all 3 seats LNP with low confidence, and that says allot, the LNP should be taking these seats in landslides because of the youth gangs up here and the government’s lack of action and justice.
The Townsville Bulletin reports that business owner Adam Baille has been preselected as the LNP candidate for Townsville. This seat will be key and will be among the most targeted in the campaign.
Given the nature of the election and the fact that there was a swing to the LNP in the Townsville-based federal seat of Herbert in 2022 (which is now safer for the Gold Coast than every Gold Coast seat, with the exception of Fadden if you count the by-election), I’m predicting that the LNP will win this seat with a TPP of about 54%, maybe more.
@Nether Portal I don’t think the LNP will get this seat with Margaret Strelow on the Ballot as she took a good chunk of both LNP & Labor votes back in 2017.
@claeb shouldnt this be in the rockhampton thread?
Joanne Lynam seems to be the ONP candidate for this seat. She is a speaker and author who describes herself as a “change advocate for inclusion and diversity.”
As someone who lives here, the odds of Scott Stewart holding on are near zilch. Walker and Harper even less likely. Even if Labor somehow win the election, they will lose this seat.
@AA you’re joking right?
@SCart I’m surprised Labor still holds this actually. I thought they would’ve lost it in 2017 or 2020 or even held it in 2015.
@Nether Portal nope not joking. https://qld.onenation.org.au/turning-the-tide-empowering-change-in-townsville
@AA well I’ll be damned…
Looking closer, it seems like she’s got some gripes with the NDIS. She’s gone public to the media with these complaints. Wonder if this is a reason behind running.
I think Labor’s ability or luck beginning 2015 will run out in 2024. There was hype and speculation about Labor losing all three Townsville seats in 2020 and even in 2017 if I recall correctly. Didn’t eventuate.
” I thought they would’ve lost it in 2017 or 2020 or even held it in 2015.”
@Nether Portal, this was a Beattie-Bligh Labor seat. Unsurprisingly Labor regained it in 2015.
@Nether Portal If it weren’t for COVID, they would’ve at least lost Townsville and possibly the other 2 as well. Townsville/NQ and CQ are more less similar to Florida politically (tropical location on a peninsula that used to be a government kingmaker, but since the late 2010s has generally been a safe haven for the conservative side of politics). Surprising considering that Herbert is among the youngest electorates nationwide.
@SCart It’s young, but that’s due to the two major industries in Townsville – the army base and mining. Phil Thompson is literally the perfect candidate for Herbert. The other problem is that Townsville isn’t just Herbert, it’s also Dawson and Kennedy.
In terms of the three ALP State seats, THE Townsville issue is crime. It’s been handled woefully by the sitting State Members who’ve basically taken the line that “there’s nothing to see here”. In particular having the Member for Mundingburra charged with assault and banned from Townsville’s Safe Night Precinct (multiple times) sends entirely the wrong message.
@Mark Yore also handing out “Forensics for Dummies” during Police Rememberance week and wasting police time.
But at the same time, Lavarack Barracks has been here for decades, and yet the surge for the LNP only started in 2019.
@Scart The LNP surge in Townsville is down to three things 1) the additional troops that were based in Townsville – sitting at just over 15,000 now including family; 2) Phillip Thompson’s nomination as the LNP candidate (ex 1RAR, Timor and Afghanistan, Young Australian of the Year, OAM, married to an Indigenous woman); 3) the long-term shift away from the ALP amongst Defence personnel, which is more properly considered as a shift away from Defence personnel by the ALP.
@Mark Yore But at the same time, Ryan has a large military base and a large university (just like Townsville/Herbert) and has consistently trended the other way for 2 decades.
@Mark Yore that doesn’t necessarily explain why the LNP did so well in Townsville in 2022, even though defence personnel are more likely to vote for the Coalition than they are Labor. It reflects a wider trend across the city.
And yes, although the vast majority of Townsville is in the seat of Herbert, a small part of it is indeed within the seat of Dawson which also covers Mackay and the Whitsunday Coast. However, looking at polling place results for Dawson there seems to be a similar trend in the Townsville booths in Dawson as there is in Herbert. I will note however the swings in the Dawson suburbs wasn’t as big as it was in the Herbert suburbs.
At the Annandale and Annandale East polling places in Dawson, the LNP had small swings to them at both polling places. There was a moderate swing against the LNP in Oonoonba, also in Dawson, while in Wulguru, again, also in Dawson, there was a small swing against the LNP. However, all four of those aforementioned booths recorded LNP majorities. The swing against the LNP in Dawson was not because of the retiring member factor: there is no such thing as a retiring member factor when the retiring member is George Christensen.
I think the crime wave will most likely hurt Labor here.
They have a very high No Vote in the seat of Herbert for the Voice (76%) which is only slight less than Groom home to Toowoomba even though Townsville had significant amount of support of SSM (62%) whilst the latter had a Narrow No Vote. I think the crime wave did play some of roles for the high No Margins there.
The swing here could be huge. The statewide swing against Labor on a TPP basis is –9.2% while on primaries it’s –12.6%. This provides an opportunity for the LNP to sandbag all three Townsville seats plus at least one of the Cairns seats (Barron River definitely, maybe Cairns too and potentially Mulgrave which isn’t actually in Cairns but it’s only just south of Cairns). Ipswich West could potentially be sandbagged too along with a bunch of regional seats (Bundaberg, Cook, Hervey Bay, Keppel, Mackay, Maryborough, Mirani and Rockhampton).
If the 9.2% swing was uniform the LNP would have a TPP vote of 56.08% in Townsville, but I expect it to be higher than that (my guess is somewhere between 60% and 65%).
@Scart Gallipoli Barracks in Ryan has a population of around 5,000. Lavarack Barracks is just over 7,000. But that isn’t the end of the story for Townsville – there’s another 8,000 Air Force and Navy personnel as well, so Townsville has more than three times the military presence as Ryan. Another issue is that the number of attached spouses is lower in Ryan compared to Townsville. Also the University of Queensland is much bigger than James Cook University and also tends to trend a bit more left than JCU.
@Nether Portal I’m less confident of the LNP retaining Ipswich West, although we’ll get to see how much of the protest vote is willing to return for a second round. I’d be more interested to see how much effort the ALP puts into their second-tier seats and where the boundary line falls.
@Mark Yore I’m sure the LNP would retain Ipswich West, at least in 2024. I’m predicting maybe 54% TPP in Ipswich West, slightly higher than at the by-election.
KAP have chosen their candidate here, Margie Ryder. She’s a former Townsville Councillor who lost in 2020. (Source: Townsville Bulletin 16/5/24 – I haven’t linked due to Paywall.)
GAWN – Like all three Townsville seats Labor holds – they’ll fall like dominos quickly. Not even a contest this time.
With the Townsville Mayor (formerly of One Nation) under Scrutiny, the PHON vote could tank in these 3 seats although this would benefit LNP & KAP.
I think Troy Thompson has been distanced from One Nation for so long that his controversies won’t have any effect on their vote.
Updated prediction:
LNP: 60.5% (+13.5%)
ALP: 39.5% (–13.5%)
The LNP primary will be around 46.2%. Labor may only get 20.6%, or possibly even less at this point.
More realistic than my other shit but still a huge swing. The swing could be up to 16%, and it will be over 10%.
Perhaps @Scart could make a better prediction though as a resident of this seat.
@Nether Portal That seems roughly in the ballpark. Will say though, I predict Townsville will be more Labor leaning than Mundingburra or Thuringowa, because:
1. Scott Stewart is more liked than Harper or Walker are because he isn’t a complete fuckwit like they are.
2. Townsville has a (slightly) more teal-ish disposition than the other two, it’s slightly richer and more educated than Mundingburra or Thuringowa, and looking at the results in Herbert in 2016 v 2022, the swings are much larger (usually double digit) in the working-class western suburbs like Kirwan and Kelso than in richer areas near the CBD like North Ward and Belgian Gardens.
@Scart thanks.
So which one will be the safest for the LNP do you think?
Probably Thuringowa
Thuringowa will be the first to fall to the LNP, and the safest LNP seat.
KAP’s Margie Ryder could poll at least 10.74% & Greens Candidate Benjamin Tiley at least 5.1% from looking at Townsville’s Council Election
@Caleb council elections aren’t always reliable but that sounds about right, maybe a bit lower for the KAP though, this isn’t Mundingburra or Thuringowa.
The best scenario for labor in Townsville, Mundingburra & Thuringowa is that they lose all three seats with a 4.9 to 5.1 swing, worst case it’s a 14.9 to 15.8 swing against them.
This will be one of the first LNP gains called on Election night. Absolutely no chance Labor holds this.
@ Nether Portal
Good to look at Indigenous voting in the Townsville Region for example Palm Island and see if there are any trends.
@Nimalan results on Palm Island:
Primaries:
* Scott Stewart (Labor): 51.4% (+1.1%)
* Margie Ryder (KAP): 22.0% (+15.1%)
* Adam Baille (LNP): 13.9% (–13.6%)
* Benjamin Tiley (Greens): 4.3% (–0.2%)
* Wesley Newman (Independent): 3.8% (+3.8%)
* William Tento (Family First): 2.8% (+2.8%)
* Alan Butt (One Nation): 1.8% (+0.3%)
TPP:
* Labor: TBC (–64.4%)
* LNP: TBC (–35.6%)
So there was clearly a big swing against the LNP on Palm Island but it didn’t really benefit to Labor. Instead, it mostly went to Labor. I would assume on TPP that Palm Island will have a small swing to the LNP purely just from the KAP vote increasing. I imagine KAP also courted Labor voters but mostly LNP voters. KAP have a long history of being supportive of Aboriginal rights and being economically similar to the old Labor Party but socially conservative on issues such as abortion. KAP opposed the Voice because it was too city-centric.
91.4% of Palm Island is Indigenous.