ALP 14.5%
Incumbent MP
Peter Russo, since 2017. Previously member for Sunnybank 2015-2017.
Geography
Brisbane. Toohey covers southern parts of the City of Brisbane, specifically the suburbs of Sunnybank, Rocklea, Moorooka, Salisbury, Coopers Plains, Robertson, Macgregor, Nathan and Eight Mile Plains.
History
The seat of Sunnybank first existed from 1992 to 2001, and was restored at the 2009 election. The seat was renamed as Toohey in 2017.
Sunnybank was won in 1992 by the ALP’s Stephen Robertson. In 2001 he moved to the new seat of Stretton. He has served as a minister since 1999.
The ALP’s Judy Spence won the seat of Mount Gravatt in 1989. She defeated the former National Party MP. Spence became a minister in the Labor government in 1998, serving in the ministry until the 2009 election.
In 2009, Mount Gravatt was abolished and Spence won the new seat of Sunnybank.
Spence retired in 2012, and Labor candidate Meg Bishop was defeated by LNP candidate Mark Stewart. Labor’s Peter Russo defeated Stewart in 2015.
Russo was re-elected as member for the renamed seat of Toohey in 2017, and again in 2020.
Assessment
Toohey is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Russo | Labor | 14,591 | 50.4 | +5.8 |
| Warren Craze | Liberal National | 8,706 | 30.1 | -0.2 |
| Claire Garton | Greens | 3,636 | 12.6 | -2.1 |
| Nikolas Peterson | Legalise Cannabis | 1,072 | 3.7 | +3.7 |
| Claudia Roel | One Nation | 939 | 3.2 | -7.3 |
| Informal | 990 | 3.3 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Russo | Labor | 18,674 | 64.5 | +4.5 |
| Warren Craze | Liberal National | 10,270 | 35.5 | -4.5 |
Booths in Toohey have been divided into three areas: north-east, south-east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 61.6% in the south-east to 72.4% in the west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote just over 9% in the north-east and south-east, and 20.7% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 20.7 | 72.4 | 3,451 | 11.9 |
| South-East | 9.3 | 61.6 | 2,974 | 10.3 |
| North-East | 9.4 | 62.4 | 1,440 | 5.0 |
| Other votes | 11.8 | 64.2 | 11,415 | 39.4 |
| Pre-poll | 12.1 | 63.3 | 9,664 | 33.4 |
Election results in Toohey at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and the Greens.
Long term greens target, This is in Moreton if I am not mistaken.
This is indeed in Moreton. However, the large Chinese Australian community is one the Greens have not yet made significant inroads into. They’d need to win Miller first before mounting a serious challenge here.
The Greens have announced Melissa McArdle as their candidate, who ran in Moorooka Ward at the recent local government election.
I’m guessing she is related to former Caloundra MP, Mark McArdle?
@Daniel T I wouldn’t think so.
Safe ALP retain. I truly thought Peter Russo would’ve been made to stand aside this election for a younger up and comer. He’s never made the ministry in his almost 10 years in office. Not sure if that’s because he lacks the ambition or if he’s been overlooked on factional grounds.
I’m guessing she is related to former Caloundra MP, Mark McArdle?
Could be a fair guess.
Neither Mark McC nor Megan say anything about their early background on Wiki and The Greens site respectively, you’d expect them to highlight being born and bred Qlders if they were.
My guess, they’re both originally from Victoria and given the uncommon surname, yep, they’re related somehow.
I can see that the LNP have a younger candidate running in 2024. Perhaps this could be a game changer for them and a headache for the ALP as I notice that Miles was campaigning there.
Lineball, 13% swing, so only just an ALP retain. (There won’t be 20% swing in these seats like in regional seats)
For example I am only predicting a 7% swing to the LNP in Bullimba
Riawena/Kessels Rd seemingly used to be Bell St-like for the Greens, but BCC results in Moorooka tells me the Greens have started getting 20+% south of it too. This did not reflect in MacGregor/Runcorn/Calamvale however, so makes me wonder if the southern/southeastern boundaries of Moorooka Ward is the new demographic boundary.
Easy ALP retail. Main reasons being, 5 solid labor voting suburbs of Rocklea, Moorooka, Salisbury, Coopers Plains and Nathan.
The other suburbs (Sunnybank, Robertson, Macgregor and Eight Mile Plains) are usually 50/50 with a slight LNP lean under normal circumstances but rarely enough to engulf the strong tsunami of labor votes from Rocklea, Moorooka, Salisbury, Coopers Plains and Nathan. Another issue is the large Chinese vote in the Sunnybank, Robertson, Eight Mile Plains part of the seat. Since Scott Morrison blamed China for COVID, they seemed to have turned on-masse against the LNP and have lifted the labor vote as evident in both the city council election (with the LNP loss of the Calamvale ward) and the federal election (large swing to the ALP in Moreton). I might take a while for some of that vote to come back to the LNP if ever. I only expect a small swing here.
I’ve earmarked this for abolition
On what basis?
@Rosco Sunnybank is actually in Runcorn Ward, not Calamvale Ward. And the LNP got 53.0% of the TPP vote in Sunnybank at the BCC election earlier this year, though in Sunnybank Hills it was Labor who got 52.9% TPP.
Real talk there is an underlying defeceit in Brisbane and a large surplus in Logan so creating a seat in Logan and abolishing a Brisbane one is obvious solution. Toohey is about 12% under quota and abolishing it can spread to other districts