ALP 3.2%
Incumbent MP
Aaron Harper, since 2015.
Geography
Far North Queensland. Thuringowa covers southern and western suburbs of Townsville, including Thuringowa Central, Condon, Rasmussen, Kelso and Kirwan.
History
The seat of Thuringowa has existed since 1986. The seat has been won by the ALP at all but two elections, with One Nation interrupting the Labor hold on the seat in 1998 and the LNP winning in 2012.
Thuringowa was won in 1986 by Labor MP Ken McElligott, who had been first elected in Townsville in 1983. He served as a minister in the Goss government from 1989 to 1991 and again from 1995 to 1996.
At the 1998 election, McElligott was defeated by One Nation’s Ken Turner. Turner, like every other One Nation MP elected at the 1998 election, soon left the party, becoming an independent in 1999.
Labor candidate Anita Phillips defeated Turner in 2001. She served one term before stepping down in 2004 to run for the federal seat of Herbert, unsuccessfully.
Craig Wallace retained the seat for Labor in 2004 and was re-elected in 2006 and 2009. Wallace served as a minister from 2006 to 2012.
In 2012, Wallace was defeated by LNP candidate Sam Cox. Labor suffered a 22% swing on primary votes, and dropped to third place behind Katter’s Australian Party.
Labor came back in 2015, with Labor candidate Aaron Harper defeating Cox with a 12% swing. Harper was re-elected in 2017 and 2020.
Assessment
Thuringowa is a marginal Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Aaron Harper | Labor | 10,922 | 36.8 | +4.6 |
| Natalie Marr | Liberal National | 9,022 | 30.4 | +9.2 |
| Julianne Wood | Katter’s Australian Party | 4,780 | 16.1 | +0.5 |
| Jeni Alexander | One Nation | 2,907 | 9.8 | -10.4 |
| Heidi Hardisty | Greens | 1,476 | 5.0 | -0.6 |
| Michael (Blu) Turner | United Australia | 547 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Informal | 1,182 | 3.8 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Aaron Harper | Labor | 15,790 | 53.2 | |
| Natalie Marr | Liberal National | 13,864 | 46.8 |
Booths in Thuringowa have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55.2% in the centre to 59% in the south.
Katter’s Australian Party came third on the primary vote, with a primary vote ranging from 14.3% in the north to 17.0% in the south.
| Voter group | KAP prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 17.0 | 59.0 | 3,608 | 12.2 |
| Central | 15.3 | 55.2 | 2,946 | 9.9 |
| North | 14.3 | 57.7 | 2,113 | 7.1 |
| Pre-poll | 16.9 | 51.9 | 12,912 | 43.5 |
| Other votes | 15.2 | 51.0 | 8,075 | 27.2 |
Election results in Thuringowa at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party, Katter’s Australian Party and One Nation.
If Labor rN 3rd this would be a kap gain. Kap will win as soon as they make the 2cp against liberal or labor
Thoughts on the likelihood of KAP running second? I’ve done up a model thats got primary votes at:
ALP – 26.1%
LNP – 37.1%
GRN – 5.5%
ONP – 9.7%
KAP – 20.2%
OTH – 2.3%
Which, assuming the same distribution as last time, results in:
ALP – 31.0%
LNP – 40.0%
KAP – 29.0%
And
ALP – 39.1%
LNP – 60.9%
This assumes KAP flows go 72% LNP, 28% ALP, which is a guess. They’ve just announced they’re preferencing LNP second, the first time they’ve ever preferenced, so theres no data on what ramifications that decision might have. Last time the flows were 53% LNP, 47% ALP, so I’m assuming many people ignore the recommendation + the ONP and GRN to KAP that would go to ALP. Thoughts on this? And the chance that KAP wins?
If kap finishes second they will likely win. But I don’t think they can this election tbh I think it’s just a bridge too far.