LNP 14.1%
Incumbent MP
James Lister, since 2017.
Geography
Southern Queensland. Southern Downs cover rural areas stretching along the Queensland-NSW border. Major centres include Warwick, Stanthorpe, Millmerran, Texas, Inglewood and Goondiwindi. Southern Downs covers Goondiwindi and Southern Downs LGAs and parts of Toowoomba local government area.
History
The seat of Southern Downs was created at the 2001 election.
Southern Downs in 2001 was won by Lawrence Springborg, who had been a National Party MP since 1989, first for Carnarvon and then for Warwick.
Springborg had previously served briefly as a minister in the final months of the Borbidge government in 1998.
Springborg became leader of the National Party in 2003, and led the party to the 2004 and 2006 elections.
He stepped down as leader in 2006, but returned to the party’s leadership in 2008.
Later in 2008 he led the Nationals into a merger with the Liberal Party, forming the Liberal National Party. He led the LNP into the 2009 state election. He served as deputy leader of the LNP from 2009 to 2011, and served as Minister for Health in the Newman government from 2012 to 2015. Springborg again served as LNP leader from 2015 to 2016.
Springborg retired at the 2017 election, and the LNP’s James Lister was comfortably elected in Southern Downs. Springborg went on to be elected unopposed as Mayor of Goondiwindi in 2020, and Lister was re-elected in Southern Downs in 2020.
Assessment
Southern Downs is a safe LNP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| James Lister | Liberal National | 16,285 | 51.6 | +10.4 |
| Joel Richters | Labor | 8,198 | 26.0 | +9.1 |
| Rosemary Moulden | One Nation | 3,182 | 10.1 | -10.3 |
| Malcolm Richardson | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 1,398 | 4.4 | +4.4 |
| Tom Henderson | Greens | 1,309 | 4.1 | -0.2 |
| Deborah Waldron | Legalise Cannabis | 1,189 | 3.8 | +3.8 |
| Informal | 756 | 2.3 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| James Lister | Liberal National | 20,229 | 64.1 | |
| Joel Richters | Labor | 11,332 | 35.9 |
Booths in Southern Downs have been divided into four areas: Warwick, north, south and west.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 56.5% in Warwickt to 67.3% in the south.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 6.7% in the south to 12.9% in the north.
| Voter group | ON prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 12.9 | 65.7 | 2,697 | 8.5 |
| South | 6.7 | 67.3 | 1,722 | 5.5 |
| Warwick | 12.4 | 56.5 | 1,679 | 5.3 |
| West | 10.1 | 64.5 | 1,590 | 5.0 |
| Pre-poll | 9.8 | 62.4 | 16,296 | 51.6 |
| Other votes | 9.9 | 68.1 | 7,577 | 24.0 |
Election results in Southern Downs at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and One Nation.
Another candidate for a future rename to avoid a clash with the local government area of the same name. In the meanwhile, this is another seat that will never change to Labor even if Jack the Ripper was the local LNP candidate.
Yep – this seats name should be changed. But in other news, a total sleeper – easy retain for the LNP.
Courier Mail seems to be concerned that this seat won’t be as safe as it used to be https://www.couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=CMWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.couriermail.com.au%2Fnews%2Fqueensland%2Fwarwick%2Ffind-out-who-in-the-running-for-seat-of-southern-downs-at-2024-state-election%2Fnews-story%2Fbbdcabc2ad01ae2edf6e4f1c69b797d2&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=LOW-Segment-2-SCORE
They won’t change the name unless the lga ceases to be in the division
@Caleb who else would be able to win this? One Nation? Labor is never winning this. This is one of those places that Labor has never done well, never in history.
LNP retain easily. Another one that will be 70%+.
Up until the mid 1950s the seat regularly swapped between Labor and the country party. Only since the late 50s has been solely with the nats
@Dave
Not sure of boundaries in 40s 50s prior to the split
Alp won Warwick once
Alp won Condamine with Mr Diplock
Carnarvon all so won
Think won Lockyner too
But they were rare pickings here… This area was for the most part anti labor