GRN 5.3% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Amy MacMahon, since 2020.
Geography
Central Brisbane. South Brisbane covers suburbs in on the south side of the Brisbane River in central Brisbane, specifically West End, Highgate Hill, Kangaroo Point, East Brisbane, South Brisbane, Woolloongabba and Dutton Park.
History
The seat of South Brisbane has existed continuously since 1860. The seat had been won by the ALP at almost all elections from 1915 until 2020, when it was won by the Greens.
The seat was once held by Premier Vince Gair from 1932 to 1960. He was expelled in 1957 and formed the Queensland Labor Party, and later served as a Democratic Labor Party Senator from 1964 to 1973.
The ALP held the seat from 1960 to 1974. The seat was held by the Liberal Party for one term from 1974 to 1977 and has been held by the ALP since 1977.
Jim Fouras won the seat in 1977, and held it until 1986, when he lost ALP preselection to Anne Warner. He later held the seat of Ashgrove from 1989 to 2006, serving as Speaker from 1990 to 1996.
Warner had previously won the seat of Kurilpa in 1983, but her original seat was abolished in 1986. She served as a minister in the Goss government until her retirement in 1995.
Anna Bligh won South Brisbane in 1995. Bligh became a minister in the new Beattie government in 1998. In 2005, she became Deputy Premier, and succeeded Peter Beattie as Premier in 2007. She won another term as Premier in 2009.
In 2012, Anna Bligh led the ALP to a massive defeat, with the party losing all but seven seats. Bligh held on in South Brisbane by a 4.7% margin, after a swing to the LNP of over 10%.
Bligh resigned from her seat immediately after the election. Labor’s Jackie Trad won the following by-election by a slim 1.7% margin. Trad was re-elected in 2015 and 2017.
Trad was elected deputy leader of the ALP immediately after the 2015 state election, and thus became Deputy Premier. She served in a number of portfolios, but primarily as Minister for Transport until 2017, and as Treasurer from 2017 to 2020. She was forced to resign from her ministerial roles in May 2020 due to an investigation by the Crime and Corruption Commission into her role in the construction of a new school in her electorate. She was cleared by the investigation in July 2020.
Trad lost her seat in 2020 to Greens candidate Amy MacMahon.
- Marita Parkinson (Liberal National)
- Barbara O’Shea (Labor)
- Richard Henderson (One Nation)
- Amy MacMahon (Greens)
Assessment
The Greens’ margin in this seat is not insurmountable, particularly if the LNP changed their preference policy to favour Labor.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Amy MacMahon | Greens | 12,631 | 37.9 | +3.5 |
| Jackie Trad | Labor | 11,471 | 34.4 | -1.6 |
| Clem Grehan | Liberal National | 7,616 | 22.8 | -1.5 |
| Rosalie Taxis | One Nation | 573 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| John Meyer | Independent | 441 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| John Jiggens | Independent | 398 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Marcus Thorne | United Australia | 206 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 882 | 2.6 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Amy MacMahon | Greens | 18,450 | 55.3 | +8.9 |
| Jackie Trad | Labor | 14,886 | 44.7 | -8.9 |
Booths in South Brisbane have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
The Greens won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56% in the east to 59.2% in the centre.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | GRN 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 16.8 | 58.4 | 4,147 | 12.4 |
| East | 22.7 | 56.0 | 3,944 | 11.8 |
| Central | 19.6 | 59.2 | 866 | 2.6 |
| Pre-poll | 23.2 | 55.4 | 13,841 | 41.5 |
| Other votes | 25.1 | 53.4 | 10,538 | 31.6 |
Election results in South Brisbane at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs Labor) and primary votes for the Greens, Labor and the Liberal National Party.
@Ben Raue thank you Ben, I only commented once about it I think because I didn’t want to go too off-topic, especially on an individual seat profile.
I won’t mention incumbency or sophomore surge as “surge” might be an overstatement.
Amy MacMahon’s 2PP margin is quite inflated. She won following LNP preferences. Add to that, Jackie Trad was in a lot of controversy back then. This might’ve surpressed the Labor primary vote.
Greens hold, with possible 2PP swing away.
@Votante as we saw with federal and council results this area is becoming a Greens stronghold similar to some inner-city parts of Melbourne (Brunswick, Carlton, Collingwood, Fitzroy, etc). And again it’s not small-l-liberal, this is probably the only hard left area in Queensland.
@NP, I sense the Greens primary vote will go up as Labor (whose candidate I think has an impressive CV) and LNP will sort of run dead. I don’t expect the Greens to lose this.
McMahon won’t win the primary vote in every booth this time. The LNP will also ensure the sitting member doesn’t have an easy time holding.
If I had to pick a seat in the state where Labor has a remote shot of increasing their primary vote. It will be this one.
@Daniel T the LNP didn’t win a single booth in The Gabba Ward at the BCC elections even with first preferences (the closest was Kangaroo Point) so I doubt they will at a state election. Again this is becoming a Greens heartland.
For McConnel however I would absolutely agree in fact I think the LNP will finish first in Cooper and McConnel but lose to the Greens on Labor preferences. Greenslopes could go to the Greens as well but I don’t think Bulimba will as Labor are still outpolling the Greens there (even federally).
Actually the closest booth in The Gabba was technically the Brisbane City Hall EVC. Also the LNP narrowly won the postal vote in The Gabba but I don’t think that will happen on the state level in South Brisbane.