South Brisbane – Queensland 2024

@Ben Raue thank you Ben, I only commented once about it I think because I didn’t want to go too off-topic, especially on an individual seat profile.

I won’t mention incumbency or sophomore surge as “surge” might be an overstatement.

Amy MacMahon’s 2PP margin is quite inflated. She won following LNP preferences. Add to that, Jackie Trad was in a lot of controversy back then. This might’ve surpressed the Labor primary vote.

Greens hold, with possible 2PP swing away.

@Votante as we saw with federal and council results this area is becoming a Greens stronghold similar to some inner-city parts of Melbourne (Brunswick, Carlton, Collingwood, Fitzroy, etc). And again it’s not small-l-liberal, this is probably the only hard left area in Queensland.

@NP, I sense the Greens primary vote will go up as Labor (whose candidate I think has an impressive CV) and LNP will sort of run dead. I don’t expect the Greens to lose this.

McMahon won’t win the primary vote in every booth this time. The LNP will also ensure the sitting member doesn’t have an easy time holding.

If I had to pick a seat in the state where Labor has a remote shot of increasing their primary vote. It will be this one.

@Daniel T the LNP didn’t win a single booth in The Gabba Ward at the BCC elections even with first preferences (the closest was Kangaroo Point) so I doubt they will at a state election. Again this is becoming a Greens heartland.

For McConnel however I would absolutely agree in fact I think the LNP will finish first in Cooper and McConnel but lose to the Greens on Labor preferences. Greenslopes could go to the Greens as well but I don’t think Bulimba will as Labor are still outpolling the Greens there (even federally).

Actually the closest booth in The Gabba was technically the Brisbane City Hall EVC. Also the LNP narrowly won the postal vote in The Gabba but I don’t think that will happen on the state level in South Brisbane.

Will likely be a grn v lib and grn to retain on lab preferences. Next election Labor could regain on lib preferences

Looks like the ALP will win this one according to ABC. I believe this is the first time that the Greens have ever lost a lower house seat that they won at a general election (they’ve lost seats they’ve gained at byelections or through defections before).

@JM from QLD except in Tassie and the ACT.

@Nether Portal, sorry you’re correct I should specified in IRV systems not Hare-Clark.

Labor will win South Brisbane. Yes it’s close on a 3cp basis due to the LNP postals being much better than polling day, but the remaining postals will not be as strong, absents won’t help them, and the one nation preferences won’t get the LNP into second.

According to the Guardian the Greens are not finished in this seat just yet. It’s mentioned as a ‘likely’ gain for Labor on the ABC website. But it still sits in the seats in doubt column.

In South Brisbane, they will be depending on One Nation preferences pushing the LNP into second place ahead of Labor, allowing them to win on Labor preferences.

The LNP is expected to do well on late vote-counting, a dynamic that will help the Greens in South Brisbane but hurt them in Maiwar. There is a possibility they could hold both seats, but it’s also possible the party could be wiped out of the parliament.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/27/devastating-losses-in-regional-queensland-show-labor-is-increasingly-being-consigned-to-the-cities

The ABC has a similar note on how the preferences will play out. I’ve noticed it has ALP ahead rather than a gain. I note that Maiwar is a Green retain at the moment.

Pre-election, I did sense a tightening of 2PP between Greens and ALP but it looks like I still overestimated the Greens.

Going by current numbers One Nation preferences will need to go somewhere around 80-85% to the LNP exclusively if they want to push Labor out of the 2PP. Going by historical trends and the nature of this seat being one of the Greenest in the city it’s probably more likely to be 65% leakage to LNP, 25% to Labor and 10% to the Greens, which would mean Labor narrowly holding on 2nd place and then beating the Greens comfortably on LNP preferences.

I guess it’s a game of wait and see, but if holds out to be a Labor win, then I guess QLD and Federal Labor can breathe a sigh of relief after yesterday’s loss.

I think the main thing is whether late arriving postals and absent votes will narrow the gap between Labor and LNP. This would be a bigger factor in determining who makes the 2PP.

Senator Murray Watt on Sky News and Wayne Swan on ABC last night appeared very optimistic about winning Grififth and Brisbane at the federal level.

It’s the same everywhere bar the nt and northern wa. Where they obviously have high aboriginal populations that vote labor. I’d expect wa labor to lose kalgoorlie Albany warren blackwood and dawesville. Maybe Murray wellington. And Geraldton. They’ll hold collie which is like the Gladstone of wa and likely bunbury for at least this election. Will likely hold pilbara and which is basically the Rockhampton of wa and Kimberley which is basically like cook.

Difference is the lnp decision to preference labor

Poll Bludger projection is ALP 32.5, LNP 30.7, so that’s a 1.8% gap LNP need to make up on 3% of One Nation votes (ie: get 60% more ON prefs than Labor) – difficult, but doable.

In 2020, ON prefs went 463 LNP 151 Grn 137 ALP (out of 751), so 62-20-18 as percentages. That’s only a 42% gap between LNP and ALP, but bear in mind there were three other candidates in 2020 excluded before ON and two of them were left-wing, so the gap here should be a few points higher. I don’t think the LNP can quite get there, but it’ll be close.

@Political Nightwatchman, you are quoting my own piece but that was written super early this morning – it seems like the door has closed now.

@Ben Raue

Thanks for the clarification.

@Ben Raue just wanting to clarify with your latest observation do you believe that it is looking more likely that Labor will win South Brisbane even when the postals and pre-poll count is complete?

Thanks.

Ben
am I right in thinking that the editorial policy of The Tally Room ensures that what the Guardian lets slip through is caught by the Editor of the Tally room even when the writer is the same person?
I know that I frequently self censor my own Tally Room
Comments to prevent the site deteriorating into a campaign forum.

What on earth are you talking about Andrew.

I haven’t been closely following the post-count today. I am just clarifying that the Guardian piece was from the start of the day and it is obviously not being constantly updated.

Algester and Stretton are two seats which had only four candidates in 2020, with ON coming fourth. Their preference flows:

Algester: 53.1 LNP, 25.9 ALP, 21.0 Grn
Stretton: 59.1 LNP, 23.7 ALP, 17.2 Grn

In the slightly more comparable (inner suburban) Cooper and Moggill, which had one other minor party / indie who came fifth:

Cooper: 58.6 LNP, 13.5 ALP, 27.9 Grn
Moggill: 64.9 LNP, 17.6 ALP, 17.5 Grn

No 60% LNP-ALP gaps anywhere there (although they seem to be larger in the inner suburbs for some reason), so this looks done unless the LNP do really well on postals / absents.

Ben
You missed that I was complimenting you on lack of editorial
Bias in your Editorial behaviour on The Tally Room.

Ah right. Well I also try to make sure my Guardian articles are of a high standard!

LNP are now only 2.1% behind the ALP on primaries

Well done to South Brisbane Labor despite all the odds ran a string positive progressive campaign delivered 50 cents fares $1300 off power bills free kindy free tafe free lunch limiting of the petrol prices with the highest miming royalties in the world. This stole the attention off the Greens and once the LNP learnt from there mistake in 2020 and preferences Labor they came back. Even if LNP might narrow the lead it’s very hard to see them getting 2nd from One Nation votes.

If greens can hold on LNP preferences they may be able to hold in 2028 given OPV will be in place and the LNP will just be saying Vote 1 LNP

“As the ECQ has ceased conducting indicative preference throws, the above preference count has been estimated based on election night preference flows”

LNP are now just 1.9% behind the ALP so id imagine once they distribute preferences the LNP will overtake the ALP and then Greens will retain on ALP preferences

Could this be the first time in history that the Greens want help from not just the LNP but also One Nation? They want One Nation preferences to flow to the LNP enough for them to overtake Labor (who the Greens obviously prefer over the LNP and One Nation) so then Labor preferences elect the LNP. It seems like the Greens want conservatives (One Nation) to preference other conservatives (the LNP) and the progressives (Labor) to preference other progressives (the Greens) so they can win. Just a thought.

Just looked at the results, John is right: the Greens are gonna win and the LNP will end up in the final count instead of Labor. Expect a big margin though, obviously bigger than any of Jonathan Sri’s margins in The Gabba Ward or the current margin with Trina Massey’s 10.8% margin.

LNP and the Greens aren’t quite where they need to be just yet. The rough distribution figure purported by scrutineers the other day of One Nation preferences breaks 0.65 LNP, 0.2 Labor and 0.15 Greens. When you split the current One Nation vote based on that distribution to the three parties, LNP still falls about 100 votes short of overtaking Labor. Still more counting to go, but its getting more likely that Labor stay in front of LNP and win from their preferences.

Just did a fresh calculation and the LNP are still around 150 votes short. The One Nation vote now needs to benefit LNP much better than expected and/or a bigger batch of LNP votes need to be found in the remaining count.

Kevin Bonham has a good write up on this. Based on preference flows from ON on election day the ALP are about 138 ahead of LNP on 3CP. Any remaining votes that come in will likely break evenly or only weakly favour the LNP.

LNP will be excluded and ALP will win on LNP preferences. STV is a strange system.

Latest batch of votes came through, the anticipated gap is even wider now between Labor and LNP (on 3CP). At around 184 by my estimate.

How likely was it that Jackie Trad made LNP voters tactically vote for the Greens or made Labor voters swing to the Greens in 2020?

Amy MacMahon may be the only Greens MP (state or federal), other than by-election winners, to not get a sophomore surge after a full first term.

@Votante LNP HTV cards preferenced the Greens above Labor in South Brisbane last time. This is also how the Greens got in in Richmond at the 2022 Victorian state election.

Votentate
Adam Bandt failed to gain a sophomore surge in 2013, having a 0.64% 2PP swing against him.
There is, of course, a resemblance to South Brisbane 2024 with Liberal Party altering preference advice to disadvantage Greens.

@Phil but Bandt improved his primary vote by 7%, whereas McMahon is down 3.5%.

The state seat however is a good example of no surge. Ellen Sandell has the distinction of having a primary vote swing against her at every election, and also a 2PP swing against her in 2018 (Another point that likens this QLD election to Victoria 2018 from the Green perspective).

Most other Greens I can think of got sophomore surges after their first full terms. Jenny Leong’s was surprisingly small in Newtown however (0.48% – but much better on 2PP, and depressed by “Keep Sydney Open”). So maybe this was more foreseeable in these ultra left Greens vs ALP seats. A warning for Max Chandler Mather

@Nether Portal – IIRC Greens would have still won Richmond 2022 on normal preference flows without the LNP HTVs (looking back at the numbers though it’s relatively close)

On the other hand they wouldn’t have ended up bringing Footscray, Preston and Pascoe Vale to marginal seat status.

And interestingly Ellen Sandell only got to 46.4% before 20% worth of Liberal preferences were thrown. Like Richmond, Greens probably get enough of those to hang on but another point against Sandell who’s the leader in Vic now – compared to Jenny Leong, Adam Bandt and Jamie Parker before he retired, she hasn’t really built a safe margin. Her state leadership has so far been neither here nor there and I do worry that whatever the voters of Melbourne find off-putting may surface statewide. But that’s for another thread.

we should be gald the did or Jackie Trad would have been prremier of qld

LNP are currently 120 behind labor.

@Darth Vader

*they are estimated to be.

We don’t know the actual preference distribution yet. Since these votes are only being drawn from a limited pool of 1,175 One Nation votes though, it’s going to be really unlikely to see the gap of 120 votes closed. ABC are operating under an assumption of ~67% LNP, 15% ALP and 17% Greens.

It’s been overshadowed by the US election but the ABC website has now called South Brisbane as a gain for Labor.

@PN thanks for reporting that here. I haven’t been looking at Queensland today (I briefly looked this morning but I’ve mostly been watching the US). For those wondering, Trump has basically won.

There really should be only one seat in doubt having had another look at the Queensland state election results (that seat being Aspley). KAP aren’t passing Labor in Mulgrave, it’s been weeks and they’re still not passing them. Aspley on the other hand is the new Bundaberg.

ECQ is quite conservative and won’t give preference flows. I guess ABC had to be cautious so not to call the wrong winner without knowing the correct 2CP.

The deadline for postal votes has passed. Mulgrave is trickier as there were so many candidates whilst South Brisbane had few.