Pumicestone – Queensland 2024

Is this seat a toss-up? I don’t see a preselected LNP candidate yet. There might be internal LNP polling telling them to go for low-hanging fruit elsewhere.

It’s normally Labor leaning but it changed hands every election from 2012 to 2020. No party has held it for more than a term since 2012.

Labor picked up this seat thanks to a retiring LNP member and Bribie Island and Ningi-Sandstone Point residents swinging hard to Labor. It might’ve been due to the elderly LNP voters who supported Labor’s hard border during the pandemic. The aforementioned areas have large elderly populations and a high median age. It’s the demographic that was most fearful of Covid.

Out of the seats Labor gained last state election its definitely Labor’s best chance of retaining. My guess Labor holds unless the LNP get a sizable win in the polls. And I’m not talking about the LNP’s win in 2012 62.8% -37.2% two party preferred range, but more like polling in the 54 – 46 two party preferred range. It should be noted the previous seat of Caboolture was held by Labor despite the swing against the Goss government in 1995. It was lost by Labor to One Nation in 1998.

But if the LNP wins through minority government which Paul Williams has suggested is the most likely outcome on current polling. I can see Labor holding this seat with the member negating some of the swing against her with the sophomore surge. The current 5.3% buffer certainly helps, but it’s by no means impregnable.

It was reported in the Courier Mail LNP ran a letterbox and advertising campaign that the state government was considering building a desalination plant on Bribie Island. Labor have accused the LNP running a ‘scare campaign’ and have ruled out building it there. The fact that Labor has ruled it out probably shows there is still some vulnerability there.

It was reported in the Courier Mail the LNP have preselected 22-year-old environmental advocate Ariana Doolan for the seat of Pumicestone. I do question the wisdom of the LNP preselecting a 22 year old for Pumicestone. It makes me question how serious the LNP are on winning the seat. The seat is at a margin of 5.3% which is certainly in striking distance.

When a 22 year old from either Labor or LNP is preselected they usually are for a unwinnable seat. So they can gain some experience and the party can see how effective they are as a candidate. So they can run for a more winnable seat down the track. For example Peter Dutton ran as a 19 year old against Tom Burns in his safe Labor seat of Lytton. At the 1989 Queensland state election.

I agree, this is a puzzling move from the LNP, especially in such a demographically old electorate. It should be noted that according to her recently-removed social media, Doolan is also an electoral officer in the Queensland Parliament, presumably for some LNP MP, so this has all the hallmarks of an insider appointment.

One can only suppose that the LNP have written off the seat of Pumicestone and potentialiy the next State election. We currently have and incompetent State Government and an incompetent local member who does not even live in the electorate of Pumicestone.
Yet the party endorses a 22 year old as the candidate for the next state election. I personally know of a number of conservative voters that are now in a quandary of who to vote for. I for one will not vote for a 22 year old to represent me and I suspect there are many who share my sentiments.

Rob Dawson,

I think Wyatt Roy wants to have a word with you 🤓

I think if someone is willing to serve and does it diligently and decently then age doesn’t matter, our country as well as many others would be better served when a variety of people of different walks of life come together. The more diverse the legislature, the more it accurately reflects society.

As for this particular candidate, the choice seems a little odd. I wouldn’t think there would be too many environmental advocates in the LNP.
I would’ve thought seats like Maiwar, McConnel or Cooper would be a better fit.

@Wilson
This might be considered duty to the party, in the UK it’s extremely common for MPs to have previously run in seats they can’t win to prove their worth to the party.

Agree Daniel and KT, having a younger candidate does not necessarily mean the party has ‘written off’ the seat. Wyatt Roy (Longman 2010) was considered a questionable choice due to his youth and inexperience, but he benefitted from a minor ‘gaffe’ made by then Labor MP Jon Sullivan.

Other successful or nearly successful young candidates include Neil Symes (Queensland State MP for Lytton who benefitted from the 2012 LNP landslide) and Declan Martin (Labor candidate for the Victorian state seat of Brighton, 2018) who came within 1000 votes or 1% of winning.

I’m in my 20s and I have a very strong bias to vote for candidates who are around my age, regardless of political affiliation. My age group is grossly underrepresented in parliament, and it shows in both discourse and decisions. The reasons are understandable, but it doesn’t change the fact.

Doolan is a staffer for LNP MP Andrew Powell, who holds the neighbouring seat of Glass House.

It is strange for the LNP to run a 22-year old in a seat that they pretty much must win to form government. It is also very strange for that 22-year old to have a history of working in a climate action NGO (something about reducing CO2 emissions in education?) given the LNP’s general approach to climate policy. I have to wonder if she was the only nominee for preselection or something, but it would be strange if they struggled to find potential candidates for this sort of seat.

I see her as a good candidate who can win this seat. I predict she’ll easily win this marginal seat in what everyone predicts will be a landslide for the LNP. If she wins I think she’ll become the first ever Gen Z to be elected to the Queensland Parliament and possibly the youngest conservative MP in the country, along with being one of the youngest MPs in the country overall.

As for her climate change policies, she would appeal well to teal/small-l-liberal voters. Greens voters are more extreme on climate action and of course are more extreme on social and economic policies, the Greens are a left-wing to far-left party, even compared to other green parties around the world they’re considered one of the wokest. Teals on the other hand support more climate action but are also more centrist or centre-left and tend to be small-l-liberals.

LNP has committed to a 75% cut in emissions. It’s not like she’s running for federal LNP and will sit in the same room as Gerard Rennick and Matt Canavan. A problem about her is not her age but rather she might be a career politician in the making, or as @Wilson put it – an insider appointment.

A potential One Nation comeback, following their 2020 crash, could be a wildcard factor. The older than median population may turn to One Nation post-COVID. This could split the conservative vote.

@Votante potentially, but I think the swing to One Nation would likely be small and One Nation voters will preference the LNP over Labor and the Greens anyway. Pauline Hanson even confirmed that One Nation would preference the LNP over Labor and the Greens in every seat in 2024.

Also, people kept saying that in NSW in 2023 the Liberal vote would be split between teals and One Nation, and that One Nation and the teals would see a big surge in their vote. However, One Nation still only got like 2% of the statewide vote (a small increase), only gained one Legislative Council seat (despite their Legislative Council vote decreasing) and only finished second in one seat: the safe Labor seat of Cessnock, which is working-class and One Nation traditionally does better there than anywhere else in NSW (plus the Nationals candidate for Cessnock was disendorsed after the close of nominations). As for the teals, although a few finished second in some Sydney seats, none of the independent candidates that actually called themselves “teals” were elected.

I have a different view to many on this thread, but I think a 22-year old environmentally conscious candidate is advantageous for the LNP in an older electorate. It is also an electorate that loves their environment and would appreciate a candidate from the centre right who puts these issues front of mind.

Labor MP Ali King works hard and has built up a solid following after just one term and if she does somehow hold onto Pumicestone, would be on the frontbench. I do think the LNP win here by 2-3% with a swing of about 9/10% after preferences.

Elderly people can get very excited about young people getting in & having a go in society (it’s very cute). So stranger things have happened!

What a great opportunity to get some fresh young blood into our parliament. After leading a petition to get a footpath built along Beachmere road l found little help from our sitting member whereas the LNP through Andrew Powells office offered to print up fliers for free. Ali won’t even respond to my emails or arrange to meet with me. In the end the state govt flicked the job to Moreton Bay Council who don’t have the funds . I am hoping for a change rvanyon to make the building of less than a kilometre of footpath happen

After actually meeting the LNP’s candidate Ariana Doolan I am now convinced she is more than competent to be the local MP. Extremely mature, appears quite intelligent and has appropriately moderate views. I wish her the best of luck.

Something does nor ring right for lnp gain here… alp mp is hard working should have won this in 2017. Possibly an upset alp retain
This is the vibes I get from reading the posts of others

Something does nor ring right for lnp gain here… alp mp is hard working should have won this in 2017. Possibly an upset alp retain
This is the vibes I get from reading the posts of other
s

Possible alp retain

That’s an interesting take, I think the number of older people (who voted Labor last time because of COVID, but will swing to the LNP because of crime) in this electorate will flip it back to the LNP. The Labor MP is very hard working, but the LNP candidate seems quite popular.

Final Prediction: LNP Gain, fairly safe margin. Ariana Doolan will become first Gen Z in QLD Parliament.

Not certain lnp win

I remember myself at.age 20. I thought I knew everything of course I did not. I would not have had the maturity to be a mp. This is me now looking back aged in my 60s

LNP gain. 2PP possibly in the mid-50s. As mentioned above, the Labor margin is over-inflated thanks to Covid.

Would not Ali King get a swing to her courtesy of being in first term as mp.
So margin > 6%

LNP gain.

I agree, LNP gain here. Margin will be between 6% and 9%.

The results here are quite shocking.

LNP flopped the election day vote. Labor won every election-day booth on Bribie Island and nearly all on the mainland. The one exception was Toorbul, a small booth near the mouth of the Elimbah Creek, which was 59% LNP 2PP.

What killed Labor was the pre-poll votes. The Bribie Island EVC at Bongaree had over 13000 votes cast, and it had a 54% LNP 2PP. And the Pumicestone Returning Officer in Caboolture had just under 3000 votes cast, with a 56% LNP 2PP.

That’s what gave the LNP a narrow victory here, one they will hope Ariana Doolan can build up while in parliament.

@James this is also the only seat in Moreton Bay that was gained by the LNP.

This seat is entirely within Longman federally.