LNP 4.5%
Incumbent MP
Mark Robinson, since 2017. Previously Member for Cleveland 2009-2017.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Oodgeroo covers northern parts of Redland council to the east of the City of Brisbane. It covers the suburbs of Wellington Point, Ormiston and Cleveland, as well as North Stradbroke Island.
History
The seat of Cleveland was first created in 1992. It was held by the ALP continuously from 1992 to 2009, when it was won by the LNP. The seat was renamed as “Oodgeroo” in 2017.
Darryl Briskey was elected to Cleveland in 1992. He had first been elected as Member for Redlands in 1989. He held Cleveland from 1992 to 2006.
Phil Weightman succeeded Briskey as Member for Cleveland in 2006. He held the seat for one term, and in 2009 was defeated by the LNP’s Mark Robinson.
Robinson was re-elected in Cleveland in 2012 and 2015, and has won two further terms since the seat was renamed Oodgeroo in 2017.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Mark Robinson is not running for re-election.
- Amanda Stoker (Liberal National)
- Irene Henley (Labor)
- Justin Sheil (One Nation)
- Callen Sorensen Karklis (Greens)
Assessment
Oodgeroo is a marginal LNP seat. An independent candidate polled over 20% in 2020. If such an independent emerged in 2024, it’s plausible they could overtake Labor and challenge the sitting MP.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mark Robinson | Liberal National | 12,083 | 40.9 | -11.6 |
| Irene Henley | Labor | 8,231 | 27.8 | -6.0 |
| Claire Richardson | Independent | 6,349 | 21.5 | +21.5 |
| Ian Mazlin | Greens | 1,575 | 5.3 | -8.4 |
| Douglas Chapman | One Nation | 984 | 3.3 | +3.3 |
| Kirstyn Marriott | Informed Medical Options | 341 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Informal | 894 | 2.9 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mark Robinson | Liberal National | 16,105 | 54.5 | -2.8 |
| Irene Henley | Labor | 13,458 | 45.5 | +2.8 |
Booths in Oodgeroo have been divided into three areas. Polling places on Stradbroke Island have been grouped together, while those on the mainland were split into Cleveland in the south and Wellington Point in the north.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.3% in Cleveland to 57.1% on Stradbroke Island.
Independent candidate Claire Richardson came third, with over 40% on Stradbroke Island and 16-18% in the two mainland sub-areas.
| Voter group | IND prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Cleveland | 17.9 | 51.3 | 3,713 | 12.6 |
| Wellington Point | 16.3 | 52.8 | 2,375 | 8.0 |
| Stradbroke Island | 41.4 | 57.1 | 979 | 3.3 |
| Pre-poll | 22.4 | 55.3 | 14,148 | 47.9 |
| Other votes | 20.6 | 54.7 | 8,348 | 28.2 |
Election results in Oodgeroo at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and independent candidate Claire Richardson.
Mark Robinson has announced he won’t be recontesting his seat of Oodgeroo at the next election. Setting for a preselection showdown between former Liberal senator Amanda Stoker and former federal Mp Andrew Laming.
It was reported LNP sources suggested they were confident the rank and file would back Stoker. Robinson suggested he would like a woman to replace him an obvious sign he is supporting Stoker. Stoker it was reported has moved into the electorate recently.
Apparently Andrew Laming has withdrawn from the pre-selection in the Queensland state seat of Oodgeroo according to the Australian. It looks like former senator Amanda Stoker is set to return to politics in the state arena. Stoker is regarded highly in the LNP ranks and it will be interesting if she has to serve her apprenticeship on the backbench first or be given a senior front bench position straight away. It could something in the middle such as a junior portfolio to begin with.
The 4.5% margin is modest and there will be no incumbent. But my guess Labor will be more concerned about trying to retain neighboring seat of Redlands rather then looking to pick up Oodgeroo. Election is a year away but my guess is LNP retain.
LNP moderate powerbrokers and the McGrath camp are doing everything they can to deny Stoker here. Hobbs will be fully backed by those factions and they’ve calculated that the local Laming camp will fall behind it and by their candidate being a Anglican priest that they can pull some other conservatives. It also helps the state parliamentary wing are still annoyed by Stoker’s comments about Frecklington. They tend to put ego before supporting a strong candidate.
Hobbs is trying to do the whole I’m one of you and not factionally aligned thing while throwing out he is warrior against socialism and represents traditional values, aka throwing out bones to the conservative membership.
On the other side, I’m informed that the outgoing state member and current Federal member are both backing Stoker and she is generally popular with the regular membership. The McGrath and moderate camp can’t stack the vote as easily as a senate preselection.
Amanda Stoker wins LNP preselection for Oodgeroo.
“Former Senator Amanda Stoker has secured preselection in the safe LNP seat of Oodgeroo, setting her up for a run at the 2024 Queensland election.
Ms Stoker beat ordained Anglican priest Daniel Hobbs in the head-to-head preselection battle in the bayside seat.
Former Bowman MP Andrew Laming had considered a run for Oodgeroo but pulled out a few weeks ago.
Ms Stoker received 65 votes to Mr Hobbs’ 48”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/amanda-stoker-preselected-for-qld-lnp-seat-of-oodgeroo/news-story/88f0d3dbfcd216c94cc338483f20f1b4
Breaking: Amanda Stoker has just won preselection for Oodgeroo.
Speculation in a Courier Mail article that Stoker will be made a minister assuming she wins Oodgeroo, and could become leader if the LNP lose the election. I can see her Sky News shtick playing well amongst all the financially comfortable retirees around Cleveland, but not across the state as a whole.
this is a bit of a Parachute move for LNP & could possibly lose the seat, especially if the independent candidate from the last election Claire Jenkinson decides to recontest this seat.
after looking at her wiki page she may be too controversial to win Oodgeroo.
Claire Richardson could stir things up if she recontests. The stars are probably more aligned this time. The seat is somewhat teal-ish and disaffected moderate liberals may want to look for a new home.
In 2020, she ran against a sitting member and also contended with Labor’s popularity. This seat has a large elderly cohort and higher-than-median population who were drawn to Labor for the hard border and Covid measures.
Easy retain for the LNP with Amanda Stoker likely in contention for an early call up to cabinet. I can’t see how Crisafulli denies her a spot in cabinet with her experience and clout in the party. Could be wrong.
Amanda Stoker losses in 2028 if she turns to be the same Amanda Stroker we have seen in the past. She definitely will make premier Crisafullis life difficult. Labor won’t unseat her in 2028 but a climate-backed teal or independent will defeat her if she is toxic.
Sky News and co will do everything they can to protect her and will even go out their way to attack Crisafulli if they have to. But in the end. they will lose.
It doesn’t seem like Claire Richardson is going to run again, her vote4claire email doesn’t seem to be accepting messages.
Hey all so I’m the Greens candidate for Oodgeroo and Irene Henley is recontesting for Labor. We have no word about any other candidates so far aside from us and Stoker in the LNP. It’s going to be a tough race but I’m pushing hard on cost of living relief, the Toondah PDA issue, and the Birkdale White Water rafting issue. Also just a heads up Claire Richardson is not running again we found out several months ago. Happy to post updates all regardless any of our politics.
Without an independent in the race I wonder if the tealish/local vote could fall behind the Greens here in the same way that it did in the Brisbane divisions at the 2022 federal election. Big difference of course being that this election will see the LNP sweep into power rather than out, but it’s worth considering they might make the TCP given the combined factors of Labor suffering a landslide, Stoker being the candidate and a locally-focused Greens campaign opposing development in Toondah Harbour and Birkdale.
And best of luck @Callen thanks for the info.
Poll Bludger shows 4 candidates in the order of LNP, Labor, Greens, One Nation
suprisingly this seat has a perfect seat quota of 35,000
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/LA.htm?s=Oodgeroo
@laine doubtful the federal election the coalition was in govt that had built up problems over 3 terms and people wanted change but couldn’t bring themselves to vote Labor notionally it was a Labor seat however on 2pp. This is a state election where people blame the incumbent Labor govt for their problems and will vote for their political opponents in the lnp
Far right candidate for lnp
@mick I say not. Conservative yes but doesn’t seem extreme to me. If the independent challenges again could get screwy
This is one of the most intriguing seats when it comes to the redistribution what are everyone’s though should redlands move up to south Street and the edge of cleveland and then oodgeroo take in the restoration birkdale and thorneside and then have capabala move south or should capable take I the rest of birkdale and then move oodgeroo south?
@John I’m mostly confused as to why Cleveland and Straddie are in the same seat. Shouldn’t Straddie be in Redlands so there’s not a massive gap?
@Nether Portal I think it’s because the harbour the ferries depart from is in Cleveland. Similar situation in Hervey Bay and Maryborough, K’gari/Fraser Island is in Hervey Bay because the main departure point is River Heads.
@np because access to straddle is via qld which is in oodgeroo.
Via cleveland.hence why I’m considering moving the boundary up to cleveland border so in a future redistribution they may move both into redlands
@Laine @John so why not put Cleveland in Redlands?
@np at the moment it just won first it’s like 10000 voters or .25% of a seat. And of the 3 redlands seats redlands is 7% over quota already and oodgeroo like 10% under already. But I want to do a counter clockwise shift instead of the logical clockwise one.
The Courier Mail showed me their exit polling for Oodgeroo on the polling booth last week (now published on their website): 52 (LNP) 24 (ALP) 11 (Green) 4 (PHON) and 7% who chose not to respond or were undecided. Stoker according to these figures is on track for the LNP to secure a sixth term in office since 2009. It was a Labor seat from 1992 – 2009 for 17 years. By 2028 the seat will have been LNP for 19 years depending on the performance of MP Amanda Stoker this could be a seat to watch in years to come if a swing towards a future incumbent LNP state government develops gradually, especially if asset sales come up again or social issues like abortion come about.
Sorry typo; I meant a swing that gradually develops against an incumbent LNP state government depending on their performances during the 2024 – 2028 parliamentary term. Also to note is the changing demographics as more migrants from interstate from the southern states move in plus immigrants from overseas, an aging largely conservative population and a younger demographic that is more progressive. If the LNP stir up the Toondah issue again (which was Labor’s mistake on a state level but corrected by the federal ALP) and aren’t careful on the Birkdale White Water issue it could cost them votes considerably in future especially if a TEAL were to ever challenge in years to come like 2020. A TEAL would have won in 2020 if it wasn’t for the Covid – 19 pandemic factor that year. A TEAL won the Mayoralty with 67% of the vote in the 2024 RCC election. Despite the considerable conservative vote locally TEALs are gradually doing better here.