ALP 0.1%
Incumbent MP
Robert Skelton, since 2020.
Geography
Sunshine Coast hinterlands. Nicklin covers Nambour, Yandina, Cooroy, Mapleton and Kenilworth.
History
The seat of Nicklin has existed since 1986. The seat was dominated by the National Party until 1998, when the seat was won by an independent.
The seat was first won in 1986 by Brian Austin of the National Party. Austin had held the inner-Brisbane seat of Wavell since 1977, and moved after his seat was abolished.
Austin had been elected as a Liberal at the 1977, 1980 and 1983 elections, but defected to the Nationals following the 1983 election.
Austin was forced to retire in 1989, and the seat was won by Liberal candidate Bob King. However the result was declared void, and the 1990 by-election was won by the National Party’s Neil Turner.
Turner served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 1996 to 1998, and in 1998 lost his seat to independent Peter Wellington.
Wellington won in 1998 with Labor and One Nation preferences. His vote helped prop up a minority Labor government, although only for a few months until a by-election gave Peter Beattie’s government a slim majority.
Wellington won re-election six times.
Wellington won Nicklin in 1998 with a 5.7% margin. This margin grew to a peak of 29.6% in 2004, but shrunk after that.
Wellington retired in 2017, and the seat was won by the LNP’s Marty Hunt. Hunt held the seat for one term, losing narrowly in 2020 to Labor’s Robert Skelton.
- Phillip Eschler (Family First)
- Rob Skelton (Labor)
- Sue Etheridge (Greens)
- Rebecca McCosker (One Nation)
- Steve Dickson (Independent)
- Marty Hunt (Liberal National)
- Melody Lindsay (Legalise Cannabis)
Assessment
Nicklin is one of the most marginal seats in Queensland and will undoubtedly be in play. Skelton will be hoping to benefit from a new personal vote that could protect him from a small anti-Labor swing.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Marty Hunt | Liberal National | 11,255 | 38.0 | +6.3 |
| Robert Skelton | Labor | 10,214 | 34.5 | +9.3 |
| Sue Etheridge | Greens | 3,702 | 12.5 | +0.1 |
| Michael Cardinal | One Nation | 1,900 | 6.4 | -14.6 |
| Riccardo Bosi | Independent | 1,387 | 4.7 | +4.7 |
| Allona Lahn | Informed Medical Options | 1,190 | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| Informal | 1,138 | 3.7 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Robert Skelton | Labor | 14,866 | 50.1 | +5.4 |
| Marty Hunt | Liberal National | 14,782 | 49.9 | -5.4 |
Booths in Nicklin have been divided into four areas. Polling places in Nambour have been grouped together, with the remainder divided into north, south and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of four areas, ranging from 50.3% in the south to 54.6% in Nambour. The LNP won 50.2% in the west, but also won the pre-poll vote and other vote categories.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.8% in the west to 15.3% in the north.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Nambour | 13.1 | 54.6 | 2,494 | 8.4 |
| South | 14.6 | 50.3 | 2,411 | 8.1 |
| North | 15.3 | 54.0 | 2,074 | 7.0 |
| West | 12.8 | 49.8 | 1,320 | 4.5 |
| Pre-poll | 12.1 | 49.6 | 12,446 | 42.0 |
| Other votes | 11.6 | 48.8 | 8,903 | 30.0 |
Election results in Nicklin at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
If there was one seat that was the biggest shock on election night that changed hands it was this seat. I know from a good source that Labor didn’t put any resources into this seat before the election. It was reported Labor sent out scrutineers from head office the next day after the election when it looked like Labor were in a chance of winning.
So why was this seat overlooked? Because there was a presumption that One Nation voters would just return to the LNP fold. But Pauline Hanson comments being against the border closures alienated elderly voters that were most at risk with the pandemic. And with the LNP giving mixed signals on the border closures those votes instead went to the incumbent Labor government as Annastacia Palaszczuk was more trusted on the issue.
I read the previous LNP member Marty Hunt said he would contest the seat. But there has been no mention from the LNP of a candidate. This seat would have been likely won by Labor in the Peter Beattie years if independent MP Peter Wellington hadn’t been the member. The fact Wellington held it all those years and also the Sunshine Coast known to be conservative probably created a false narrative that the seat was unwinnable for Labor.
Why does Frank Nicklin get a seat named after him but not other premiers such as Joh? Joh was much more significant as he served even longer than Nicklin. A think a seat of Goss as well is needed.
Nicklin is almost close to 0% chance of Labor holding, even if they got Kevin Rudd to run here. Labor will only win this again when they get Beattieslides of 2001 and 2004. This seat isn’t “safe-safe” but you can’t expect Labor to hold or win in a tight statewide election, and if the next couple of QLD elections are tight, (especially if the LNP narrowly win in 2024 which seems likely) and then a tough re-election in 2028 if the LNP turn out unpopular, but Labor will rather target seats like Clayfield, Everton and Chatsworth and try to sandbag the fraser coast seats of Maryborough and Hervey Bay.
Joh was a kleptocratic little toad who had protesters beaten up, rigged elections and resigned in disgrace. I and many others would be aghast at him having anything named after him, except perhaps a sewer.
It’d be nice to name Goss’ old seat of Logan after him though. It doesn’t cover any of the major centres of the eponymous city, and Patrick Logan was infamously cruel and abusive to convicts.
Former LNP MP for Nicklin Marty Hunt has been preselected to recontest the seat of Nicklin. Hunt had indicated in the media he intended to recontest the seat when he lost it in 2020. Incumbent Labor MP for Nicklin Robert Skelton has got a very difficult task holding his seat on the current state wide polling. LNP won’t win government if they don’t regain a seat like Nicklin. Particularly when other seats such as (Hinchinbrook, Noosa, Mairwar etc) have a forcefield around them through minor parties and independents.
Easy gain for the LNP with a double digit swing. Rob Skelton has had a very underwhelming first (and only) term in office and was extremely lucky to win in 2020.
Skelton signs out on main roads (not just private property), which is before the election has been called…
Also Purdie has them out in Ninderry.
Skelton’s business cards are turning up in a lot of shop counters as well.
Steve Dickson decided to nominate here for some reason. His previous independent campaign went nowhere even with a bit of media attention, but I’m still surprised nobody even knew this time around until nominations closed.
Lnp gain
Prediction – LNP scores a double-digit swing. The Labor margin is overly inflated due to the pandemic election.
@votante Labor margin? You mean the 84 votes?
@John Rather condescending. A margin is a margin, no matter how small, to paraphrase the great Dr Seuss
@John, I meant the 2PP is inflated. This is mainly LNP territory.
Which they’ve won a grand total of….*checks notes*…..once, since 1995.
Daniel T June 19, 2023 at 2:06 am
Why does Frank Nicklin get a seat named after him but not other premiers such as Joh?
There was a scandal over that when it happened back in Joh’s time, result was ECQ took over naming of Electorates.
Prior to that, Nicklin had been Nambour, and all other State Seats were named for locations.
Bonney [now Clayfield] was named for Bonney Avenue, Clayfield, which was named for pioneer aviator Lore Bonney, now there’s a Gold Coast Seat named for her.
It’s got out of hand now, I’ve got to look up seats like Cooper, Maiwar, McConnell, Miller, because the names are meaningless.