ALP 3.9%
Incumbent MP
Les Walker, since 2020.
Geography
North Queensland. Mundingburra covers southern parts of Townsville, covering the suburbs of Heatley, Cranbrook, Aitkenvale, Mundingburra, Gulliver, Douglas, Annandale, Stuart, Roseneath, Wulguru, Idalia and parts of Vincent.
History
The seat of Mundingburra has existed since 1992, and has been won by the ALP at all but one general election. The ALP’s hold on the seat was broken at the 1996 by-election, when it was won by the Liberal Party, and again when it was won by the LNP in 2012.
The seat was first won in 1992 by Ken Davies, who had previously won the seat of Townsville in 1989 before moving to the new seat of Mundingburra. He won re-election in 1995 by only 16 votes.
The result in Mundingburra ended up in court, and a by-election was called in 1996. The by-election was won by Liberal candidate Frank Tanti. This resulted in the ALP government losing its majority and the National-Liberal coalition forming a minority government.
At the 1998 election, Tanti lost the seat to the ALP’s Lindy Nelson-Carr. Nelson-Carr was re-elected in 2001, 2004, 2006 and 2009. She was appointed to the ministry in 2007.
Nelson-Carr retired in 2012, and the LNP’s David Crisafulli won the seat with a 16.8% swing. Crisafulli only lasted for one term, losing in 2015 to Labor’s Coralee O’Rourke with a 13% swing. O’Rourke was re-elected in 2017, and retired in 2020.
Labor’s Les Walker replaced O’Rourke in 2020.
- Janelle Poole (Liberal National)
- Michael Pugh (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Les Walker (Labor)
Assessment
Mundingburra is a marginal Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Les Walker | Labor | 10,839 | 38.2 | +6.8 |
| Glenn Doyle | Liberal National | 9,170 | 32.3 | +6.2 |
| Alannah Tomlinson | Katter’s Australian Party | 3,448 | 12.2 | -1.7 |
| Jenny Brown | Greens | 1,953 | 6.9 | -0.8 |
| Ian Bowron | One Nation | 1,323 | 4.7 | -12.0 |
| Susan Jackson | Legalise Cannabis | 1,307 | 4.6 | +4.6 |
| Martin Brewster | United Australia | 320 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Informal | 945 | 3.2 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Les Walker | Labor | 15,295 | 53.9 | +2.8 |
| Glenn Doyle | Liberal National | 13,065 | 46.1 | -2.8 |
Booths in Mundingburra have been divided into three parts: east, north and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 52.4% in the west to 57.7% in the north.
Katter’s Australian Party came third, with their vote ranging from 10.9% in the east to 12.6% in the north, and 12.9% on the pre-poll vote.
| Voter group | KAP prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 11.0 | 52.4 | 3,256 | 11.5 |
| North | 12.6 | 57.7 | 3,136 | 11.1 |
| East | 10.9 | 56.5 | 3,117 | 11.0 |
| Pre-poll | 12.9 | 53.2 | 11,094 | 39.1 |
| Other votes | 11.9 | 53.1 | 7,757 | 27.4 |
Election results in Mundingburra at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and Katter’s Australian Party.
Police officer Janelle Poole has been preselected as the LNP candidate. It make sense with the LNP pushing the law and order theme. The last two elections its been predicted the LNP would gain Mundungburra on law and order. There was no Labor incumbent last election and the LNP still couldn’t get it done. So commentators should be weary of over inflating the issue as a vote changer.
I know Les Walker has got himself in some controversy. But my guess is he will still be the canidate. As David Crisafulli found out himself losing Mundungburra in 2015, its a Bell weather seat. And if the change of government happens on the night. You would think the seat would be a good chance of changing if the swing is on. I will wait for my prediction in this seat closer to the election though.
KAP have announced their candidate for this seat as Michael Pugh. Seems to be involved in managerial roles and an outdoor enthusiast. Full article here: https://kap.org.au/kap-candidate-promises-to-put-mundingburra-back-on-track/
@Political Nightwatchman, LNP made a smart call there and that forced the KAP to announce early. I think Les will weather the personal storm now that he’s been acquitted of charges and resuming his parliamentary roles. Whether this can counter-act if there is a swing against ALP generally is to be seen and 2024 is his sophomore year. I was very bullish in 2020 thinking this would fall but underestimated the collapse in ONP. I still think this seat has a chance to fall but can see Les holding on.
This seat as well as neighbours, Townsville and Thuringowa, were touted as first losses or most at risk in 2020. The collapse of the ON vote in 2020 helped Les Walker here.
Since KAP and ONP’s primary vote can fluctuate wildly and preferences can flow in any direction, it’s anyone’s game. Previously, ONP took a huge chunk out of LNP’s primary vote. For Labor or LNP to win here or a similar seat, they need to win primary votes off KAP/ONP. I see Les Walker having some path to victory but it’s narrow and LNP is hoping to be third time lucky.
I think this seat is toast for Labor. All three Townsville seats are due to the mass panic over youth crime, which has turned into hysteria from an incessant media campaign. And I can’t imagine Walker has done good things for his image in the community by attracting trouble more than once while enjoying the local nightlife.
Labor could retain this seat if voters are convinced not to vote for the LNP cause the party leader was a one term member here who went carpet bagging to Broadwater soon after
@Cable
I don’t think that will be a factor in deciding this seat. I remembered that state election campaign in 2015. And I was hearing on the grapevine that David Crisafulli would lose his seat. The LNP were trying to save him, but they suggested all hope was lost. When Campbell Newman then as Premier flew up to North Queensland to campaign, but then was given orders to immediately turn the plane around and go back to Brisbane. It looked like in North Queenslanders eyes he was abandoning them and Crisafulli was finished.
This seat is as good as gone for Labor with a swing of 10-12% TPP. I think Janelle wins here 58% TPP. This could be a seat though that’s abolished in a future redistribution.
Can shed some suburbs north of the river to top up thuringow and Townsville.can move further south into Burdekin
Arts of Townsville will suggest a rename to Ross after the river
Was the abode of Tom Atkins a Queensland character. He held this seat
From 1944 to 1977 and shifted his views from left close to communist to Tory Tom who voted for Pat Field as a senate replacement ” yes, I am a Labor man and I.will vote against Gough Whitlam “
Tom Aikens.
Was a disciple of Fred Patterson, went over to the dark side after Paterso left Qld Parliament.
As it turned oiut, Albert Field was a far more appropriate choice than Mal Colston, but it took Labor 23 years to admit it.
The LNP might get 50% on first preferences here same goes for in Barron River, Thuringowa and Townsville.