ALP 12.2%
Incumbent MP
Curtis Pitt, since 2009.
Geography
Far North Queensland. Mulgrave covers the Queensland coast between Deeral and the southern suburbs of Cairns, including Gordonvale, Edmonton, White Rock, Woree and Bayview Heights. Mulgrave covers the Aboriginal Shire of Yarrabah and parts of the Cairns local government area.
History
The seat of Mulgrave has existed continuously since 1950. For most of that period it was dominated by the Country/National Party. Since 1989 it has been dominated by the ALP, although the seat has changed hands on a number of occasions.
The seat had been held by Country or National Party MPs continuously for the length of the party’s term in government from 1957 to 1989.
In 1989 the seat was won by the ALP’s Warren Pitt. He was re-elected in 1992 and briefly became a minister in the Labor government in early 1995, before losing his seat to the National Party’s Naomi Wilson at the 1995 election.
Wilson briefly served as a minister in 1998 before losing Mulgrave to One Nation’s Charles Rappolt at the 1998 election. Rappolt’s time in the Parliament was brief. He faced attacks over domestic violence allegations, and he resigned in late 1998.
At the 1998 by-election Warren Pitt won back Mulgrave, giving Peter Beattie a majority in the Legislative Assembly.
Pitt was re-elected in 2001. In early 2004 he was reappointed to the ministry. He served in the ministry until his retirement in 2009.
At the 2009 election Mulgrave was won by Pitt’s son Curtis Pitt. The younger Pitt has been re-elected four times. Pitt served as treasurer from 2015 to 2017 and has served as Speaker since early 2018.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Curtis Pitt is not running for re-election.
- Yodie Batzke (Independent)
- Nicholas Daniels (Legalise Cannabis)
- Terry James (Liberal National)
- Steven Lesina (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Michael McInnes (One Nation)
- Les Searle (Family First)
Assessment
Mulgrave is a safe Labor seat on paper, although Pitt’s departure might make Labor’s campaign more difficult.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Curtis Pitt | Labor | 14,254 | 49.9 | +1.8 |
| Gerry Vallianos | Liberal National | 7,341 | 25.7 | +2.9 |
| Attila Feher-Holan | Katter’s Australian Party | 3,395 | 11.9 | +11.9 |
| Francis Bartorillo | One Nation | 1,825 | 6.4 | -16.0 |
| Sue Cory | Greens | 1,772 | 6.2 | -0.5 |
| Informal | 1,256 | 4.2 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Curtis Pitt | Labor | 17,793 | 62.2 | +1.3 |
| Gerry Vallianos | Liberal National | 10,794 | 37.8 | -1.3 |
Booths in Mulgrave have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 62.5% in the south to 67.5% in the north.
Katter’s Australian Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11.1% in the north to 16.3% in the south.
| Voter group | KAP prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 11.1 | 67.5 | 3,670 | 12.8 |
| Central | 12.5 | 66.6 | 2,617 | 9.2 |
| South | 16.3 | 62.5 | 1,952 | 6.8 |
| Pre-poll | 12.2 | 61.1 | 15,132 | 52.9 |
| Other votes | 9.6 | 59.6 | 5,216 | 18.2 |
Election results in Mulgrave at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and Katter’s Australian Party.
ALP retain if Curtis Pitt stands again. Absolute toss-up if he isn’t.
How did Labor survive here in 2012? Yes, the conservative vote was split almost 50-50 between the LNP and KAP. Was that it? Or were there other factors?
Wil expect a swing from the ALP due to Dan andrews resignation
No Stew, this is Mulgrave in Queensland. The Victorian Mulgrave by-election has already occurred, and, as you said, there was a swing from the ALP.
@nicholas its a father son seat. warren pitt first contested in 1986 won in 1989 lost in 1995 again in 1998, retook the seat in the 1998 by election, passed it to his son curtis pitt in 2009. my guess is the personal vote held up.
@stew yep sure will i reckon around 10%. 😀
@Nicholas, yes in 2012 the vote was almost a three-way tie between ALP, LNP and KAP.
Queensland still had Optional Preferential Voting then, so the KAP and LNP basically took votes from each other and allowed Labor to win with like 34% of the vote and very minimal favourable preferences.
Ah, they had OPV! That makes more sense.
@nicholas Yea it’s the reason the nats and libs formed the lnp to stop that very problem
In 2012, there was OPV as Mark Mulclair mentioned. There was also momentum behind the newly-formed KAP as a non-Labor alternative to make gains in north and western QLD. Many KAP voters either didn’t send preferences or didn’t take them too seriously, perhaps because they thought KAP would win or as a rejection of the two-party duopoly.
I feel that typically second-generation MPs do quite well and have a strong personal vote given their surname but it might also be because they normally run in safe seats.
Father son must have been a factor in a personal vote in 2012 because excluding that election, this seat is actually a bellwether.
@bja I think the opv was a factor too. If it was for he would have lost from the combined KAP/LNP vote
–Candidate Update–
While researching information for Cook, I came across an independent for here.
IND (Yodie Batzke) who has set up a Facebook Page (Batzke2024Mulgrave – if you wish to search)
Yodie contested Cook (IND) at the 2020 State Election [3.86%], QLD Senate (UAP) at the 2019 Federal Election as no.3 on the ticket [Group 3.52%], Leichhardt (IND) at the 2010 Federal Election [2.13%]. Also backed the no campaign for the Voice Referendum.
Super close race and although I think Labor will win, I think it’ll be by 51% TPP. On 12%, the margin is quite inflated and if Curtis decides to retire at the last minute, this could easily fall to the LNP.
The LNP has not yet selected a candidate and much like Mackay, i think it’s a missed opportunity for them to capitalise on the expected gains in regional Queensland.
@PRP 50/50 given they are facing a 9% swing that isnt always uniform. miles is deeply unpopular outside of brisbane and i think this will go. the only seat north of brisbane they have any hope of holding is Gladstone. Maybe cook given the strong alp vote but i think thats gone too as i think the combined KAP/ONP/LNP will outweigh labor on the 2pp
Yes, very possible. Labor’s vote will be in freefall here – but just can’t work out why the LNP hasn’t got someone here yet?
One thing I note is that in 2012, the swing against Labor on 2pp was the lowest in Cook, then Mulgrave (for Labor-held seats).
(This may have been because of a combo of Katter and OPV though)
Maybe Labor still can retain one or both though I still expect them to fall.
@leon yes OPV and the fact KAP were in the mix did hurt the lnp with FPV the lnp should easily pick these up
I wonder how the LNP still don’t have a candidate for this seat? I’m starting to think this will be a very close Labor retain.
The Courier Mail says that Curtis Pitt will announce today that he won’t contest the election and will retire from parliament.
Makes this seat much more likely to go to the LNP now.
LNP retain with the loss of Curtis Pitt, KAP might do well too.
Agree NP, based on current polling I think Mulgrave and Rockhampton will be the two Labor seats that will be lost this time round even though they were retained at the 2012 wipeout election. Mackay is also another one that could potentially fall (it is probably line ball with the LNP having a slight edge to gain it).
Making up for these losses, I see Labor retaining a few other seats that were lost in the 2012 wipeout (mostly those in the Logan area like Waterford and Logan with the potential of also keeping seats like Algester, Ipswich and Stretton).
I’m not sure who Labor will put up. As far as I know, the Old Guard faction doesn’t really have anyone lined up for the seat, unlike they have in Mackay (Belinda Hassan)
According to The Cairns Post, Actor Aaron Fa’Aoso is set to become Labor’s candidate for Mulgrave. This’ll be a fascinating contest and until the LNP announce who they’re running, its anyone’s guess.
Aaron Fa’Aoso has been backed by Curtis Pitt, but I don’t think he’s been preselected yet. If he’s backed by Pitt (a Unity MP), I’d assume he’s been recruited into the Unity faction, so preselection would be easy in Mulgrave.
I thought Aaron lived in Cairns or the Torres Strait Islands.
Mulgrave contains suburbs of Cairns.
The LNP would have won Mulgrave and Rockhampton in 2012 under CPV. Under CPV KAP preferences would have comfortably elected the LNP in these two seats. It was the exhausted KAP preferences that allowed Labor to retain the two seats.
Interesting that ABC releases an article about Nepotism in politics and next day, we have the ultimate family battle revealed in Mulgrave (thanks to Cairns Post-Paywalled). Independent Yodie Batzke (Candidate Leichhardt 2010 IND Fed, Senate 2019 UAP Fed, Division 4 Local, Cook 2020 IND) is the Aunty of KAP Candidate Steven Lesina and Aunty of potential ALP Candidate [with backing of Curtis Pitt] Aaron Fa’aoso. Now that would be some family gathering after the election!
Yodie Batzke posted about the family connections six days ago.
Personalities, personalities! Voters want to know where candidates stand on policies. Like serious issues e.g abortion, a new State for North Queensland (including 10 senators) youth crime.
Labor has chosen former Cairns City councillor Richie Bates to run for Mulgrave. Miles reportedly opposed Fa’aoso’s candidacy, although there’s no reason given as to why.
Interestingly Bates and LNP candidate Terry James served together on the council under the “Cairns Unity” group.
Predicting an LNP gain now the Pitt family is out of the picture.
This will be harder for Labor to retain but not impossible