ALP 12.2%
Incumbent MP
Curtis Pitt, since 2009.
Geography
Far North Queensland. Mulgrave covers the Queensland coast between Deeral and the southern suburbs of Cairns, including Gordonvale, Edmonton, White Rock, Woree and Bayview Heights. Mulgrave covers the Aboriginal Shire of Yarrabah and parts of the Cairns local government area.
History
The seat of Mulgrave has existed continuously since 1950. For most of that period it was dominated by the Country/National Party. Since 1989 it has been dominated by the ALP, although the seat has changed hands on a number of occasions.
The seat had been held by Country or National Party MPs continuously for the length of the party’s term in government from 1957 to 1989.
In 1989 the seat was won by the ALP’s Warren Pitt. He was re-elected in 1992 and briefly became a minister in the Labor government in early 1995, before losing his seat to the National Party’s Naomi Wilson at the 1995 election.
Wilson briefly served as a minister in 1998 before losing Mulgrave to One Nation’s Charles Rappolt at the 1998 election. Rappolt’s time in the Parliament was brief. He faced attacks over domestic violence allegations, and he resigned in late 1998.
At the 1998 by-election Warren Pitt won back Mulgrave, giving Peter Beattie a majority in the Legislative Assembly.
Pitt was re-elected in 2001. In early 2004 he was reappointed to the ministry. He served in the ministry until his retirement in 2009.
At the 2009 election Mulgrave was won by Pitt’s son Curtis Pitt. The younger Pitt has been re-elected four times. Pitt served as treasurer from 2015 to 2017 and has served as Speaker since early 2018.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Curtis Pitt is not running for re-election.
- Nicholas Daniels (Legalise Cannabis)
- Steven Lesina (Katter’s Australian Party)
- David Raymond (Independent)
- Peter Everett (Greens)
- Richie Bates (Labor)
- Terry James (Liberal National)
- Michael McInnes (One Nation)
- Leslie Searle (Family First)
- Ian Floyd (Independent)
- Yodie Batzke (Independent)
Assessment
Mulgrave is a safe Labor seat on paper, although Pitt’s departure might make Labor’s campaign more difficult.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Curtis Pitt | Labor | 14,254 | 49.9 | +1.8 |
| Gerry Vallianos | Liberal National | 7,341 | 25.7 | +2.9 |
| Attila Feher-Holan | Katter’s Australian Party | 3,395 | 11.9 | +11.9 |
| Francis Bartorillo | One Nation | 1,825 | 6.4 | -16.0 |
| Sue Cory | Greens | 1,772 | 6.2 | -0.5 |
| Informal | 1,256 | 4.2 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Curtis Pitt | Labor | 17,793 | 62.2 | +1.3 |
| Gerry Vallianos | Liberal National | 10,794 | 37.8 | -1.3 |
Booths in Mulgrave have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 62.5% in the south to 67.5% in the north.
Katter’s Australian Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11.1% in the north to 16.3% in the south.
| Voter group | KAP prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 11.1 | 67.5 | 3,670 | 12.8 |
| Central | 12.5 | 66.6 | 2,617 | 9.2 |
| South | 16.3 | 62.5 | 1,952 | 6.8 |
| Pre-poll | 12.2 | 61.1 | 15,132 | 52.9 |
| Other votes | 9.6 | 59.6 | 5,216 | 18.2 |
Election results in Mulgrave at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and Katter’s Australian Party.
@redistributed agreed. In my view, this will be the safest Labor seat to fall. Given that KAP are outright giving their preferences to the LNP (which I believe hasn’t ever happened before), the crime in Cairns being almost as bad as Townsville, and the loss of Curtis Pitt’s enormous personal vote.
LNP to narrowly get over the line thanks to KAP and One Nation preferences.
@Redistributed they would’ve lost to either the LNP or KAP on federal figures since it’s in Leichhardt in the north and Kennedy in the south.
Very happy to see LNP win Mulgrave
There is uncertainty as to whether who the final 2co is against if a recount determines it’s LNP vs KAP KAP will win. I hope they don’t I got some $ on the LNP
Either way Labor Loss
I noticed the ABC has this as ALP vs LNP. The 3CP involving KAP will matter more.
There’s a possibility that KAP comes from behind according to Ben Raue. This is because of split votes. Antony Green doesn’t call seats so soon if everyone’s primary vote is too low.
The result depends on whether preferences from ONP, Family First and the independents can push KAP ahead of Labor. ONP and FF normally put Labor almost last. Labor had KAP ahead of LNP on their HTV.
“In the Cairns-area seat of Mulgrave, the Labor and LNP votes are both very low and there is a prospect that the Katter candidate could catapult from third to win.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/27/devastating-losses-in-regional-queensland-show-labor-is-increasingly-being-consigned-to-the-cities
I would doubt Labor will win this seat… between lnp and
Kap. Line ball
Independent Yodie Batzke (who is of Aboriginal and Malaysian heritage and at least used to be a UAP member) has won the most votes in Yarrabah, an Indigenous community in the seat of Mulgrave where Labor usually does quite well. Batzke is on 37.1%, while Labor’s Richie Bates is on 30.7%, distantly followed by KAP’s Steven Lesina with 12.2%. All other candidates got under 10% of the vote, including the LNP’s Terry James (who got 4.5%), who is currently all but certain to become the new member for this seat after years of Labor rule.
My assumption is that Yodie Batzke (who again is of Aboriginal and Malay heritage but I would assume she also has other heritage given her surname) is from Yarrabah but I’m not sure. Either way it’s an enormous drop in the Labor vote there, with Labor suffering a whopping –46.7% swing against them in Yarrabah (the Labor primary vote in Yarrabah in 2020 was 77.4% and the Labor TPP there was 90.0%).
I wouldn’t rule out KAP getting a snowball effect from preferences via the other seven candidates.
i think LNP wil just hold this seat tbh
I agree John, but vs KAP on 2PP, not ALP.
Still no preference count on the ECQ website. They sure are taking their time with this one. Surely it can’t be that hard!!
@Rosco this seat had the most candidates. As you can see there are 10 candidates. But we know the LNP have won because KAP aren’t passing Labor on primaries.
but the danger for the LNP was that KAP could pass labor on One Nation and other minor candidates preferences pushing labor into third place and then overtake the LNP on labor preferences. I guess we will know soon enough.
This was definitely overshadowed with the US election (like Aspley & South Brisbane) but Mulgrave has been called as an LNP gain by the ABC.
@James finally. I called it ages ago but Antony Green seemed to think that there was a chance KAP would surpass Labor and therefore win, which clearly didn’t happen.
Most of this seat’s land area is in Kennedy federally (but 60% of the residents are in Leichhardt).
This seat will be interesting with opv. If it stays for then I’d say kap gain. Same with cook.
It would be interesting to know by how many votes labor beat kap to second too
The final results are here: https://results.elections.qld.gov.au/SGE2024/mulgrave/preference
KAP nearly made it into the final two – nearly.
A switch of 312 votes from ALP to KAP would have resulted in a very interesting finish.
LNP 10788 – 35.37%
ALP 10166 – 33.33%
KAP 9543 – 31.29%
KAP then favoured the LNP 55-45 in preferences.