Mount Ommaney – Queensland 2024

This seat could come down to the wire, but I expect the margin will be enough for Labor to retain (roughly 2% is my guess).

It’s an area the LNP do exceptionally well at in both Council and to a lesser extent, Federally.

Labor’s Jess Pugh will be part of their recovery in Opposition and I’d expect will be in Shadow Cabinet.

This seat will be interesting one because in the past its a traditional bell weather seat. Yes, the margin is 12.6% and yes Labor is polling worse in the regions then in Brisbane. But when the pendulum swings it swings. The LNP found that out in the Queensland election in 2015, in the seat of Bundaberg, despite holding the seat with a 19% margin. The seat had been a traditional Labor seat, and there has been significant time between Dr Death issue with voters.

The LNP have selected canidates in similar seats of Mansfield, Aspley, and Springwood. But they haven’t chosen one yet for Mount Ommaney. Makes you wonder if their enthusiasm is wavering for this seat despite the strong position on the statewide polling. This seat will be a intriguing one to watch out for on election night.

PN, On the issue of Bundaberg, that is still a conservative-leaning seat, It always leaned right relative to the state. Although Labor would’ve held in 2006 without Dr Death, it probably still would’ve been marginal and would’ve been lost in 2009. So the seat has certainly trended away from Labor and they will struggle to win it in future outside of strong wins.

I wouldn’t read too much about late candidate selection, it actually could indicate they are looking for a stronger candidate to take on this seat, so finding the right candidate is important if this seat is going to be close.

Someone better ring Steven Miles about the recent poll and encourage him to step down as he was the wrong choice for leader.

I actually know someone who is still registered to vote in this seat despite living here in Melbourne.

@Daniel T one can change leaders, but not the electorate. Sometimes leadership changes don’t do anything and they may even make it worse. If they change now Queensland Labor will be seen as unfit to govern and unstable internally and Labor’ll be destroyed in October. Dare I say they may only hold as few as five seats if they change leaders again.

It’s official: Labor seriously cannot win the election. It will be an LNP landslide and Labor will struggle to win 10 seats. 57% TPP statewide is very high. That’s what Michael Gunner got when he won a big landslide in 2016, and it was what Mark McGowan got in his first big landslide in 2017.

Maybe my predictions weren’t so stupid after all.

By the way, 57% TPP for the LNP is a 10.2% swing to the LNP.

Strong candidate selected by the LNP yesterday, small business owner Lisa Baillie.

The LNP have announced female candidates in over 60% of seats and over 40% in target seats. Has to be a first.

They’re taking every seat seriously from what I can see.

I still expect Labor to retain this, but could be one of the biggest swings against Labor (as it was in 2012).

PRP, I believe the Labor margin is inflated given that the suburbs in this seat seem to be somewhat conservative leaning similar to suburbs like Padstow and Revesby in Sydney. The overlapping council ward (Jamboree) is also traditionally seen as safe for the LNP.

Based on these factors, together with a strong candidate for the LNP (who is probably in a similar mould to former MP Tarnya Smith, also a business owner) makes this seat a likely pickup and corresponding loss for Labor.

At the Fed election Labor got 46% in QLD and still won all the booths within Mount Ommaney, and got double digit swings in a lot of the booths. Labor actually didn’t win a lot of the booths here even in the 2007 election. So I do think this area may be drifting towards Labor. As of right now I’d predict Labor to win here, but if the polls continue to worse Libs will win here.

Possible LNP gain. The Labor margin is somewhat inflated as they over-performed in 2020. Labor suffered a huge swing at the Inala by-election just next door in early 2024.

I’m putting this as an LNP gain.

From what Drake said there must be massive pro Labor
Demographic change. Look at the booth map 60/40 everywhere… alp retain unless boundaries change at a subsequent election

I remember reading commentary that after the Brisbane floods, some of the riverside suburbs became less desirable.

That might explain the pro-Labor trend here perhaps?

@Mark Mulcair areas like Mt Ommaney (Centenary Suburbs) definitely haven’t become less desirable, especially with the boost in property prices with interstate migration. Have a look at areas like Chelmer, Yeronga and Graceville, they got smashed by the floods but property prices are soaring.

As for the Electorate, this is an absolute toss up. Jess Pugh seems to be very popular, but the LNP candidate is also high profile. I went through this electorate yesterday, lots of signs out for both candidates, probably about equal numbers along the main roads. Pugh had multiple billboards, and Baillie had a trailer with her signs. There were also signs up for Bailie at businesses inside the local shopping centre (including one very well placed sign right as you exit woolworths). Interestingly, while Jess’ signs were Labor red, there was no mention of Labor (instead, there was the qld parliament logo).

I really don’t know what will happen here. Definite toss-up for me.

Possibly but in Brisbane, being Riverside tends attract premium property prices rather than Coastal. This area has a lot of McMansions and is quite CALD by Brisbane standards.

@Nimalan that’s because there aren’t really many surf beaches in Brisbane it’s mudflats and mangroves. The surf beaches are on the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast and on the islands adjacent to South East Queensland (Bribie, Moreton, North and South Stradbroke are the main ones).

BCC’S riverside suburbs are closer to the CBD and major universities (UQ, QUT, Griffith) and have more infrastructure than the coastal suburbs.

Most of BCC’S riverside suburbs are closer to the CBD and major universities (UQ, QUT, Griffith), closer to the Pacific Motorway (to access the GC) and have more infrastructure than the coastal suburbs.

Over 3 elections from 2015 to 2020 the sitting mp managed a cumulative swing of over 26% there must be a personal vote there. The margin is currently 12% a swing of 10% at this election would not surprise. On balance this will be close with maybe a slight advantage to labor

@ Nether Portal
Totally agree, SEQ has limited surf beaches only the places you correctly mentioned which is why the Gold Coast/Sunshine Coast will become better for the LNP with time as the population grows but the amount of surf beaches is the same.

LNP have been parking campaign trailers in bike lanes, obstructing cyclists in this area. https://youtube.com/shorts/crQ-YKZETbo?si=tcyaHBlZf7iH6hov

That’s not a bike lane – the yellow bike symbol indicates a Bicycle Awareness Zone (BAZ), which advises drivers that bikes and cars share the road.

If it was a bike lane, it would have a white bike symbol inside the lane, and a “bike lane” sign. And even then, if it’s accessibly by car, and there are no yellow lines or “no parking” signs accompanying it, you can park in a bike lane.

The LNP were allowed to park there.

Labor is gone here.

I’m still having this as a tossup but more leaning Labor. A result either way wouldn’t shock me.

Something tells me that Darra will swing hard, likely due to the cost of living issue.