ON 9.0% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Stephen Andrew (KAP), since 2017.
Geography
North Queensland. Mirani covers regional parts of Queensland from the southern edge of Mackay to the outskirts of Rockhampton. The seat covers parts of Isaac, Mackay and Rockhampton local government areas, and the towns of Mount Morgan, Dysart and Middlemount.
History
The seat of Mirani has existed since 1912. Apart from the period 1935-1947, the seat was held by MPs who belonged to the Country Party, National Party and Liberal National Party until 2015, when Labor won the seat before losing to One Nation.
Jim Randell held the seat for the National Party from 1980 until 1994. His resignation triggered the 1994 Mirani by-election.
Ted Malone won the 1994 by-election for the National Party. He joined the merged Liberal National Party in 2008. Malone was elected to his first full term in 1995 by a solid 59% margin, before dropping to a slim 53-54% in 1998 and 2001.
Malone increased his margin to 60.6% in 2004, but lost support in 2006.
The most recent redistribution in 2009 favoured Labor, and Mirani became a notional Labor seat. Malone held on by a slim margin of 50.6% in 2009, and then gained a swing of over 10% in 2012. While Malone had served as a shadow minister before the 2012 election, he moved to the backbench when the LNP won power in 2012, before becoming an Assistant Minister in late 2012.
Malone retired at the 2015 election, and Labor’s Jim Pearce won the seat with a 16% swing.
Pearce only held Mirani for one term, losing in 2017 to One Nation’s Stephen Andrew. Andrew was re-elected in 2020.
Stephen Andrew was disendorsed by One Nation in 2024, which led to him quitting the party and joining Katter’s Australian Party in September 2024.
- Stephen Andrew (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Susan Teder (Labor)
- Patricia Martin (Family First)
- Glen Kelly (Liberal National)
- Brett (Beaver) Neal (One Nation)
- Maria Carty (Greens)
Assessment
Andrew holds Mirani by a substantial margin, but a small swing to the LNP could see One Nation fall into third and lose.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Shane Hamilton | Labor | 9,412 | 32.0 | -4.8 |
| Stephen Andrew | One Nation | 9,320 | 31.7 | -0.4 |
| Tracie Newitt | Liberal National | 8,123 | 27.6 | +0.7 |
| Jason Borg | North Queensland First | 1,200 | 4.1 | +4.1 |
| Ben Watkin | Greens | 715 | 2.4 | -1.9 |
| Nick Byram | Civil Liberties & Motorists | 342 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Tepepe Borg | United Australia | 329 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Informal | 1,146 | 3.7 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Stephen Andrew | One Nation | 17,363 | 59.0 | +4.2 |
| Shane Hamilton | Labor | 12,078 | 41.0 | -4.2 |
Booths in Mirani have been divided into three areas. Polling places on the outskirts of the Mackay area have been grouped, and the remainder were split into north and south.
One Nation won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.6% in Mackay to 65.1% in the north.
The LNP came third, with a primary vote ranging from 24.8% in Mackay to 30.7% in the south.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ON 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 26.7 | 65.1 | 4,582 | 15.6 |
| South | 30.7 | 56.5 | 2,241 | 7.6 |
| Mackay | 24.8 | 51.6 | 2,020 | 6.9 |
| Pre-poll | 24.8 | 58.0 | 13,316 | 45.2 |
| Other votes | 33.0 | 59.7 | 7,282 | 24.7 |
Election results in Mirani at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (One Nation vs Labor) and primary votes for Labor, One Nation and the Liberal National Party.
If the LNP win it will be counted as a “gain” by everyone but if KAP or One Nation win it depends on who you ask. All the official sources will say “win”. Also, the ABC uses “hold” not “retain”.
Steven Andrew has a petition on his site re poisons used to control Fire Ants
Presumably some Agrichemicals Giant supplies these products, it’s being heavily promoted in Brisbane.
Could that have been an issue in his parting of the ways with Hanson?
yea KAP and others would be win or gain since but ONP would be hold or retain. since its technically a One nation seat
Would be kap win from onp as listed result
im still wondering why they drew this and burdekin across 4 lgas tbh
5 in burdekins case
The Mt. Morgan/Wowan,Dululu part was in Fitzroy, created in 1992, abolished in 2009. Stephen Ambrose has his office in Sarina, 400 odd kilometre drive from Mt Morgan.
The ways of the ECQ are indecipherable, I was living in Nerimbera in 1974, 8 miles SE of Rocky, it was in Dawson, a Mackay seat, 240 miles away, and most of it uninhabited scrub.
@john yeah I meant the other way around lol
KAP have revealed their HTV cards. Andrew recommends putting the LNP 4th, followed by Labor 5th and Greens 6th, but Robbie Katter and Shane Knuth provide two different recommendations depending on whether or not the voter wants to preference Labor or the LNP higher. Nick Dametto only provides one recommendation and has the LNP in 3rd, Labor 4th, with LCQ in 5th and the Greens in 6th.
likely to not alienate voters from either side from voting for them. Hill and Tragear draw voters from both sides wheras Hinchinbrook the labor vote is so low theres no point
Due to the KAP leader’s pledge to roll back abortion laws, the Greens have preferenced the KAP below both ALP and LNP, and accused Labor of “absolute pure hypocrisy” for continuing to preference KAP above the LNP despite the KAP leader’s pledge to repeal abortion laws. They also criticised Labor for allowing Labor MPs a conscience vote on any anti-abortion bills. The Greens say they have “an ironclad guarantee” that all Greens MPs would vote against any anti-abortion bill.
I wonder whether there will be significant numbers of ALP voters in northern QLD electorates with KAP candidates who ignore HTV cards and start preferencing LNP over KAP due to KAP’s pledge to roll back abortion rights, especially considering not many voters will see an ALP HTV in these electorates in the first place.
Interestingly, One Nation has recommended preferences to the LNP over KAP in Mirani, probably as a revenge against MP and KAP candidate Stephen Andrew who quit One Nation and runs against it after being having been disendorsed as a One Nation candidate. It means the LNP can end up winning Mirani on One Nation preferences.
In spite of this, One Nation still recommends preferences to KAP over the LNP in other electorates with KAP candidates.
Due to the One Nation HTV cards I’m gonna say LNP gain here.
I did find out about the ONP HTV cards a week or so ago, but their supporters don’t really follow them that well and their primary vote will nosedive here compared to the 2020 results anyway, so I still think Andrew will hold. Personally speaking I put One Nation last and know other people who did as well, primarily because of how they treated him. I actually ran into Glen Kelly along with Colin Boyce at prepoll the other day and he didn’t seem that bad, so if it turns out he gets elected then it’s fine.
It’ll probably be closer than 2020 though, maybe 54-46 on the TPP.
One Nation won’t push the LNP over the line by themselves. LNP will likely finish in the top two with or without One Nation’s preferences. This isn’t 2017 or 2020; the ONP vote will be in single digit percentages.
If Labor finishes third in the 3PP vote, they will elect Andrew.
@Laine do you mean the notional TPP or the actual TCP? I think the notional TPP (LNP vs Labor) will be a lot higher than in 2020 but the actual TCP would be close.
@Nether Portal Yeah TCP, KAP v LNP. The notional TPP will most likely be >60% even if the election is a bit closer than expected. Susan Teder is just completely invisible.