Mirani – Queensland 2024

@redistributed not only would it hurt them in both hill and Hinchinbrook which are both safe lnp seats 2pp. Traegar is a lot closer on 2pp terms so they’d probably still hold onto that the only issue for Robbie katter is it would probably kill his ambitions for Kennedy once bob retires and may actually lose him Kennedy as well

@John

It no longer becomes a bargaining chip for Labor preferencing KAP. If KAP think they can get Labor preferences by default. And not preference Labor. Labor have past form. Nick Xenophon announced his then SA-Best party wouldn’t be preferencing the major parties and giving split preferences at 2018 SA election. So Labor returned the favor.

@well libs will be referencing kap over Labor so what’s Labor gonna do?

Steven Miles just forgot the name of Labor’s candidate for Mirani in a press conference. It’s Susan Teder, by the way.

Also, there will be another leader’s debate according to 9 News’ Instagram page.

In Mirani I would put onp last and the lnp second last. This would probably ensure a Kap win here

Why would Steven Miles be visiting Mirani twice in two days? Does he know something that no one else does?

@redistributed I doubt it given the Labor candidate is a nobody who even Miles himself couldn’t name earlier today. I haven’t seen a single piece of campaign material from them either.

Labor were never winning here so it probably doesn’t matter that he can’t name her, but man that’s a bad look.

By my math this seat could end up being abolished anyway

Miles could be putting the acid on Katter for a preference swap in Mirani.
LNP got ON up in 2020, it’s a poor man’s seat, so I wouldn’t write noname [ALP] off if a deal can be done.

@Gympie how can Labor win this? One Nation and KAP preferences will go to the LNP, Labor’s vote will drop by double digits and the Greens won’t do well here. One Nation and KAP are preferencing the LNP.

And as John said the maths says this might be abolished in 2028 anyway.

A preference swap between alp and kap would be a good idea. I assume kap wishes to maximise their candidate ‘s chances of winning the seat which I would rank as reasonably high. Labor would get something out of this if they had a chance however remote of winning the seat
It could also deny the lnp of victory here. What does kap gain from preferencing the lnp? Zilch

It would only work if it were a one way ‘deal’ with Labor directing their preferences to the Katter’s over the LNP, which has always been the case anyway. If Andrew directed his preferences to Labor his support would collapse and he would have 0 chance of making the TCP.

@ laine surely voters will assess the probabilities of each outcome.

Kap dual ticket?

Mirani Ballot Draw
1. Stephen Andrew – Katter’s Australian Party
2. Labor
3. Family First
4. LNP
5. PHON
6. GREENS
#qldvotes #QldVotes2024 #qldpol #auspol #StrongCrossbench

Incumbent MP Stephen Andrew has drawn top position in the ballot, which will work in his favour. My prediction is that the seat will become a KAP vs LNP contest, with KAP winning comfortably on favourable One Nation, Labor and Greens preferences.

@joseph is there any official htv for this seat? Onp have said they would preference lnp in every seat? Either way I predict this seat to face abolition at next redistribution. If kap grab it it will be lost forever so maybe it’s not in their interest to preference katter

And technically donkey voting is at most 1% of the vote so unless there is <400 votes determining the seat or if he makes 2cp its a moot point.

Donkey vote is a great idea for Kap. There is a sort of non aggression pact between kap and onp. In any case it is a good idea to deny the lnp a seat

@John No HTV cards have been made public as of yet. One Nation only said they would preference the LNP above Labor and the Greens, nothing about above any other parties. And if for some reason they decided to preference the LNP above the Katter’s, it would be because of the bad blood they have with Andrew, not because the seat might get abolished next redistribution and that somehow makes it a bad idea to.

Remember too despite the decisions of the onp organisation Mr Andrew used to be seen as one of onp’s own by the onp party.
I think Mr Andrew will be reelected irrespective of what the htvs say.

Would KAP preference PHON if it happened to end in LNP vs PHON?

I could see a scenario where the result is this in the following order in primary votes.

1) LNP
2) PHON
3) KAP
4) ALP
5) GRN
6) FF

If this happened would KAP preferences elect the LNP or PHON? Or would ALP and GRN preferences make sure KAP jumps ahead of PHON to make 2nd place?

@Daniel T One Nation isn’t going to come second. The only reason their vote share didn’t collapse here in 2020 like it did everywhere else is because Andrew was an incumbent MP and had the resources to keep his primary vote support stable.

Anyway, yeah, depending on how far apart they are Labor preferences would most likely push KAP into the TCP anyway.

@Daniel T in the unlikely event that the ONP comes second, ALP preferences will push the KAP into second, and Andrew will use ONP’s preferences to win against the LNP. Have a look at Hinchinbrook 2017.

Doubt onp will come second on primary votes

PHON is running a strong candidate with Hanson’s 100% backing, And I believe she will campaign here. Why would Andrew do better? Andrew only won because of the PHON label next to his name in 2017. He won’t win as an independent or other minor party. Looking forward to proving people wrong about this on on October 26.

LNP gain.

@Daniel T KAP isn’t what I’d consider a minor party. What would you propose the primary votes to be?

A80, It will be all over the place and I doubt anyone gets more than 40%, But I think in the end the LNP get it, It will be similar to Hinchinbrook in 2017 except this time the LNP will win.

I think the voters of Mirani would rather stick with an MP who has done the hard yards for them for the last seven years, as opposed to a parachute candidate who has been in Pauline’s office for the last three years. One Notion would be lucky to exceed 15%. LNP may well pick up the seat but Andrew will be in the last three candidates on preferences.

Labor and onp can’t win. It’s kap v lnp kap will win if they make the 2cp

@ NetherPortal
One Nation and KAP are preferencing the LNP.
Katter has only anounced preferencing LNP in the 3 townsville seats.
He’s hard to get a straight answer out of on anything, and Miles isn’t going to die wondering.
Labor voters are a lot more disciplined than KAP voters and without ALP preferences Katter can kiss goodbye to his seats in NQ and with that official Party status in the Qld Parliament.

@Gympie but KAP preferences usually flow to the LNP over Labor (look at the last few federal and state elections).

@Gympie

Katter can probably “kiss goodbye to the NQ seats” a lot harder if he backs in Labor over the LNP.

@gympie he holds traegar with lnp preferences. the other 2 labor arent gonna help out the lnp either

Depends how the LNP go.
If they finish 1 or 2 to KAP, then Labor preferences will decide the winer.
KAP probably aren’t going to be in the first 2 in Mirani, but a preference to Labor might be enough to get them over the line
From my observations scrutineering [not in Mirani] KAP voters preference LNP 55/45 Labor.
But in some cases, that 45% will be enough.

@gympie labor cant win this seat. lnp will get onp preferences and probably most kap as well. who do the greens preference out of ONP, LNP and KAP order?

LNP to finish first on 30%+ none of the other 3 will poll more then 25%. greens and ff probably 2% each max.

ONP or KAP to make the 2cp on the others preferences

@john I believe Green and ALP preferences will go ONP, LNP, KAP.

I’m putting this as a KAP gain, as it’ll likely be a KAP vs LNP contest (because the ALP and ONP vote will drop significantly). This means that the KAP will get ALP and ONP preferences. As I said before, if it’s an LNP vs ONP contest on first preferences, the KAP would probably leapfrog ONP using ALP preferences, and go on to win using ONP preferences. Labor have left their candidate announcement so late that I can’t see the ALP making the top two.

I really can’t see how this could be an LNP gain.

I’m pretty confident the primary vote order will be:
*LNP
*KAP
*Labor
*ONP
*FFP
*Greens
Based on what I see and hear living in the electorate. If Labor had a decent candidate they could narrowly poll second, but One Nation would just put KAP into the TCP anyway. There’s a lot of resentment for Ashby here actually, people are accusing him of pulling the strings rather than Pauline (what stage of denial?) & being responsible for Andrew getting kicked out of the party.

They’re only running Brettlyn Neal here because she’s one of probably 5 or 10 trusted Hanson suck-ups left in the party and their logic is that she might be able to mount a half decent camapaign. Not like she is though, I’ve only seen material from the LNP and KAP, and they’re the only two with an active social media campaign as well.

@AA i think you mean KAP, LNP, ONP the other way around it seems theyre puttin ONP first then lnp then kap. that will depend on who finishes where and is eliminated first. if labor finish above KAP then their preferences will elect the LNP member. i cant see labor finishing fourth as they will still get the very few greens preferences after they are eliminated early so it will come down to who finishes second and who finishes fourth out of onp and kap. if KAP finishes 2nd it will be over as they will get both most of the preferences of the other 4 i would presume. though if katter finishes 4th ONP could still win depending on the final results. its a 3 horse race between onp, kap and lnp. LNP can still win if its LNP v ONP

@laine somewhat agree with that order. Labor will finish 3rd and LNP 1st in my opinion but the other 4 could swing. in relation to the greens and FFP its a race for 5th. depending on if greens can take some votes off labor. with onp and kap it will depend on how much of the 2020 vote was personal vote vs party vote. but that is the most likely order yes. if KAP finishes second LNp probably cant win since they probly wont get more then 30%. But like ive stated previously it may be the last time anyone contests Mirani since its in a prime position to be abolished in favour of a sunshine coast seat

If John posts in the Mirani thread without stating that it’s going to be abolished, did he really post at all?

October 5, 2024 at 12:03 am – “By my math this seat could end up being abolished anyway”
October 8, 2024 at 8:39 pm – “Either way I predict this seat to face abolition at next redistribution.”
October 9, 2024 at 1:13 pm – “But like ive stated previously it may be the last time anyone contests Mirani since its in a prime position to be abolished in favour of a sunshine coast seat”

We get it mate. We can read.

I suspect the”onp” candidate will poll poorly, this is a direct result of Mr Andrew being dumped. He, the kap candidate will get some personal vote plus whatever kap brings to the table. Kap will poll second. If the alp vote decreases due to the swing or a conscious decision to help the best non lnp candidate to win. Then alp preferences will go to Mr Andrew. I think this will be a kap win

i think that the general consensus mick. lnp simply cant win outright in a crowded field that will likely favour andrew should he finish in the 2cp

technically it would be considered a notional retain for KAP wouldnt it?

John, not how it works, turncoat doesn’t count as “Retain” if anything it will be considered “Win” not Gain or Retain.

Agree Daniel, even Anthony Green on ABC coverage only uses ‘retain’ for seats that change status notionally during redistributions. For members who defect from their original party, the term ‘Win’ is used instead if they manage to win re-election for their new party.