Mirani – Queensland 2024

If the LNP win it will be counted as a “gain” by everyone but if KAP or One Nation win it depends on who you ask. All the official sources will say “win”. Also, the ABC uses “hold” not “retain”.

Steven Andrew has a petition on his site re poisons used to control Fire Ants
Presumably some Agrichemicals Giant supplies these products, it’s being heavily promoted in Brisbane.
Could that have been an issue in his parting of the ways with Hanson?

yea KAP and others would be win or gain since but ONP would be hold or retain. since its technically a One nation seat

Would be kap win from onp as listed result

im still wondering why they drew this and burdekin across 4 lgas tbh

5 in burdekins case

The Mt. Morgan/Wowan,Dululu part was in Fitzroy, created in 1992, abolished in 2009. Stephen Ambrose has his office in Sarina, 400 odd kilometre drive from Mt Morgan.
The ways of the ECQ are indecipherable, I was living in Nerimbera in 1974, 8 miles SE of Rocky, it was in Dawson, a Mackay seat, 240 miles away, and most of it uninhabited scrub.

@john yeah I meant the other way around lol

KAP have revealed their HTV cards. Andrew recommends putting the LNP 4th, followed by Labor 5th and Greens 6th, but Robbie Katter and Shane Knuth provide two different recommendations depending on whether or not the voter wants to preference Labor or the LNP higher. Nick Dametto only provides one recommendation and has the LNP in 3rd, Labor 4th, with LCQ in 5th and the Greens in 6th.

likely to not alienate voters from either side from voting for them. Hill and Tragear draw voters from both sides wheras Hinchinbrook the labor vote is so low theres no point

Due to the KAP leader’s pledge to roll back abortion laws, the Greens have preferenced the KAP below both ALP and LNP, and accused Labor of “absolute pure hypocrisy” for continuing to preference KAP above the LNP despite the KAP leader’s pledge to repeal abortion laws. They also criticised Labor for allowing Labor MPs a conscience vote on any anti-abortion bills. The Greens say they have “an ironclad guarantee” that all Greens MPs would vote against any anti-abortion bill.

I wonder whether there will be significant numbers of ALP voters in northern QLD electorates with KAP candidates who ignore HTV cards and start preferencing LNP over KAP due to KAP’s pledge to roll back abortion rights, especially considering not many voters will see an ALP HTV in these electorates in the first place.

Interestingly, One Nation has recommended preferences to the LNP over KAP in Mirani, probably as a revenge against MP and KAP candidate Stephen Andrew who quit One Nation and runs against it after being having been disendorsed as a One Nation candidate. It means the LNP can end up winning Mirani on One Nation preferences.

In spite of this, One Nation still recommends preferences to KAP over the LNP in other electorates with KAP candidates.

Due to the One Nation HTV cards I’m gonna say LNP gain here.

I did find out about the ONP HTV cards a week or so ago, but their supporters don’t really follow them that well and their primary vote will nosedive here compared to the 2020 results anyway, so I still think Andrew will hold. Personally speaking I put One Nation last and know other people who did as well, primarily because of how they treated him. I actually ran into Glen Kelly along with Colin Boyce at prepoll the other day and he didn’t seem that bad, so if it turns out he gets elected then it’s fine.

It’ll probably be closer than 2020 though, maybe 54-46 on the TPP.

One Nation won’t push the LNP over the line by themselves. LNP will likely finish in the top two with or without One Nation’s preferences. This isn’t 2017 or 2020; the ONP vote will be in single digit percentages.

If Labor finishes third in the 3PP vote, they will elect Andrew.

@Laine do you mean the notional TPP or the actual TCP? I think the notional TPP (LNP vs Labor) will be a lot higher than in 2020 but the actual TCP would be close.

@Nether Portal Yeah TCP, KAP v LNP. The notional TPP will most likely be >60% even if the election is a bit closer than expected. Susan Teder is just completely invisible.

@RealTalk: ONP primary vote will still be much higher than ALP’s, and the ONP will distribute much more HTV cards than the ALP. This means more ONP voters will follow HTVs than ALP voters, and as a consequence, overall preference flows will favour the LNP in a likely KAP vs LNP contest. However, it’s still entirely possible that Andrew could still be elected despite unfavourable preference flows.

@Joseph I am dubious as to whether ONP will poll anywhere near the 9,320 votes they received in 2020. The ALP may not win this seat but they will comfortably beat One Notion. Mirani voters will support one of their own, not one of Pauline’s parachute candidates who failed to make any impression in Cook last time around.

I don’t think One Nation will outpoll Labor. But if Labor finished fourth that would be just another step in their path to political irrelevance north of Noosa. If they lost Gladstone that would solidify it.

Funny this is a seat where the 2pp will not matter. Will it be onp to kap .same candidate
Onp to lnp?
Onp are idiots why dump a sitting mp to lose the seat
I reckon I will poll more votes than lnp and I am not on the ballot

LOL Labor are not losing Gladstone.

This seat is interesting. It used to be a safe National party seat. The 2009 Redistribution abolished the old seat of Fitzroy and became a notional Labor seat. The Sitting member for Mirani was able to overcome it and in 2015 was defeated by the former member for Fitzroy. From what i know since 1989 there have been redistributions in QLD in 1992, 2009 and 2017 are there any i am missing?

@Nimalan – Ted Malone, the LNP MP for Mirani retired in 2015, that’s when Jim Pearce (former MP for Fitzroy) won the seat.

@NP – I disagree. Labor seem to be putting no effort into this seat. The candidate selection was late as well. Hell, even Smiles forgot the candidate’s name!!! But I think a lot of ONP voters will go KAP, which could create a complex vote split.

Mirani was a safe np.seat under most circumstances but in 1935.Arthur Fadden was defeated by Ted Walsh alp.. this seat was held by Walsh for about 10 years
He was defeated then returned as the mp for Bundaberg .he left the alp in 1957 held the seat as qlp and then Waa an independent for the last two terms and retired in 1969

@ James
Oops made a mistake with respect to 2015.It seems 2001 was a redistribution year.

Supposed leaked Labor polling via the Courier Mail does seem to have Andrew in a bit of a bad spot here. If the LNP prevails even against KAP, it will likely be because there’s an expectation they will/can form government and in turn have the power to cancel the Pioneer-Burdekin Pumped Hydro Project. Andrew opposes it as well of course, but the crossbench just doesn’t wield the same type of influence. I’ve not been to the north of Mirani in a while so the ground game may be very different compared to here.

That same polling has KAP winning Thuringowa and Mundingburra though, as well as Sandy Bolton just barely holding Noosa, so not really sure how I feel about its reliability.

There’s probably only about 2500 votes or so left here based off turnout from 2020. The LNP has taken a lead of 320 as per the ABC, but it’s difficult to know for certain who the remaining votes will favour on the TCP count. If the LNP candidate increases his lead in the next batch of votes then I think Antony may move it to LNP likely, but I wouldn’t call it until over 85-86% of the vote is counted (it’s about 80-81% right now). Either way it seems it’s going to be very narrow like Thuringowa 2012 at this stage.

Won’t bother deleting my previous thoughts but as I was writing this the computer called Mirani for the LNP lol. Pretty disappointing election for KAP if that holds up and Mulgrave doesn’t deliver from third place.

@Nether Portal last year, you asked on here if the booth of Swayneville in Capricornia would be the last rural town to vote One Nation. Well it seems not – the small booth of Toobeah in Southern Downs has a 58.98% One Nation vote, probably due to One Nation’s campaign being focused on certain happenings in that town. But it’s an interesting political anomaly.

@AA interesting. A couple of booths in Keppel also voted One Nation. I guess I was wrong.

I honestly thought the same as you, it’s surprising to see a rebound in One Nation vote in certain booths. I think Ashby performed very well in the coastal parts of the Keppel electorate, but performed worse in the suburban Rockhampton booths.

@AA yep that’s true, but since this is the Mirani thread I’ll move this conversation to the Keppel thread.

ABC has called Mirani for the LNP.

Qld Federal seats in Qld 1975:19
State seats 82, 4 times as many.
Now there are 30 Federal seats, 93 State seats.
Because the number of State seats hasn’t increased i line with population growth, voters in country areas are disenfranchised to the extent that boundaries have to be adjusted to fit in ever larger numbers of people living in the south east corner.
Hence Mirani, a Mackay seat for most of it’s history, now includes Mt. Morgan, once a seat in it’s own right.

Last post for today concerning the recent elections.
Just going through a handful of seats that I find interesting.
Using this as my guide: https://results.elections.qld.gov.au/SGE2024/mirani/table/preference?tableType=vote-type

It appears Andrew won the “election day” vote, when two thirds of the actual electorate voted, by 51.98% to 48.02%.
On the other hand, the LNP won the “pre-poll” vote by 57.83% to 42.17%

No doubt there will be probably 92 other examples of the LNP pre-poll vote out-performing their election day vote. Not necessarily a reflection of the campaign, but simply that voters who pre-poll are more likely to vote LNP.

@Real Talk

‘No doubt there will be probably 92 other examples of the LNP pre-poll vote out-performing their election day vote. Not necessarily a reflection of the campaign, but simply that voters who pre-poll are more likely to vote LNP.’

Please check the Pumicestone thread. You will be in for a massive surprise.

Massively surprised, how? The last post there backs up my hypothesis perfectly.

@Real Talk – it was meant to be sarcastic lol. That was the ‘massive surprise’. There was none, it was meant to be a sarcastic way of supporting your idea.

Haha all good then. No harm, no foul.