Maryborough – Queensland 2024

@Mick interestingly, not accounting for redistributions, the Nationals TPP in Bathurst was only 0.1% worse than it was in 2011. Compare this to Campbelltown (a once-in-a-lifetime win) where Labor’s TPP was 26.7% higher in 2023 than it was in 2011. Some seats like Liverpool are better for the Liberals now than in 2011.

Saunders is a political legend. In 2012, Labor had 12 percent of the vote here. In 2020, he won the seat on first preferences.

@Mick I’m sure there is a personal vote there, but it’s not as high as people think it is.

@ Mick/Nether Portal
I feel that Bathurst is probably gone for good for the Labor party like the state seat of Morwell. There is too much demographic change. One other seat that is interesting is East Hills it has only swang back to Labor by 0.7% since 2011 when taking into account favourable redistrubutions for Labor. It is actually more right wing than NSW as a whole for the first time in 2023 even as the Libs lost it. I think Liverpool has more localised factors rather than demographic change as i mentioned which is also impacts Labor at a Federal level in Werriwa.

Nimalan,
Bathurst was a safe National Country Party seat, which Labor was unable to win in the 1978 Wranslide election. The current member doesn’t identify as being a member of any political party.
https://www.westernadvocate.com.au/story/5916297/spot-the-nats-party-listed-in-small-print-on-toole-campaign-material/

When the ‘independent’ member for Monaro retired, the seat was won by Labor at the next election.
It will be interesting to see what happens when the ‘independent’ member for Bathurst retires.

@ Watson Watch
I agree Bathurst was also held by the Nats/Libs in the past. My point was not meant to be a dig at the Labor party, it was more a demographic point about closure of coal mines around Lithgow we can see how Calare and Gippsland have shifted right. However, Labor is no stronger in some areas than in the past for example Bega/South Coast. Blue Mountains used to be a bellwether but now Rock Solid for labor. There is also the possibility new Labor seats will be created in the future around Marsden Park. Places like Bringelly, Rossmore and Orchard Hills in Western Sydney are currently semi-rural and Strongly Liberal but planned Rail extentions will lead to these being opened up for Residential development and may turn into Labor voting areas like Mickleham and Clyde have turned from Strongly Liberal to Strongly Labor in under 20 years.

* Labor is now stronger in some areas I mean

It’s interesting how depending on the era, greenfield/new growth areas in the outer suburbs go from classic swing sests to safe for one party or another. Using Victoria as an example, Holt with Cranbourne and Clyde has solidified for Labor, while further north in Aston, it’s only really Labor at high tide (or Lib low tide).

@ WL
Aston is now beyond the Greenfield/Growth area stage has now become more established with children moving out of home. The median age has increased and more homes are now owned outright. This is what we call the lifecycle effects in politics as people age and become more conservative. Most of Casey is still a growth area with a much younger demographic than Knox. The Northern parts of Berwick are quite strong for Libs. Knox was really the last part of the Eastern Suburbs to be developed. The Dandenong mountains mean there is less room for suburban expansion in the East. That Factor has made it increasingly affluent while the West has more land still to be developed so property prices will be more affordable and will grow for sometime.

Nimalan would that also be true for some parts of Sydney (e.g. Sutherland Shire) which were once considered growth areas prior to the 21st Century (i.e. the 90s). I know these parts were once considered swing regions during the 80s and 90s but are now considered solidly conservative.

Also, the Sutherland Shire is very similar to the eastern suburbs of Melbourne (Knox council area) in that it is the last part of the Sydney metropolitan area before reaching the impassable Illawarra escarpment range which prohibits development of new housing estates.

@Yoh An Cronulla was never a swing suburb as far as I know.

@ Yoh An/NP
In the 1970s Much of what is now Cronulla/Federal seat of Cook was a swing area it was pivotal to the election of the Whitlam government and Labor came close in 1983 as well. It was not until 1996 that Cook became a safe Liberal seat. It used to be a mortgage belt area now more established see this article below.
https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/malcolm-mackerras/cook-and-higgins-a-study-in-contrast/

@Nimalan I was referring to Cronulla itself which is a fairly affluent suburb right on the beach. The area around it used to swing though.

@ NP
The state seat of Cronulla was won by Labor during the Wranslides. I agree Cronulla is fairly affluent. Unless i can source booth results from 1972 and 1974 and 1983 i am not sure if Labor won Cronulla in those elections. The strongest areas for the Libs these days in Cook is actually Taren Point and Sylvania Waters more than Cronulla itself. Also Cronulla will be more affluent today than 50 years ago. The population if Sydney has growing heaps since then but the amount of Beachfront land between the Hawkesbury River and the Royal National Park remains the same so the scarcity has made more unaffordable than 50 years.

NP, I was referring more to the inland parts of the Sutherland Shire (suburbs like Miranda and Sylvania) which I believe were considered the growth/swing type suburbs during the 80s and 90s.

Nicholas 2020 was the covid election remember. That wasn’t the saunders election that was the annastasia and Dr Young election. If you were really a Maryborough local you would know of the reputation the incumbent has in this town. It’s a small town and the word travels

”Maryborough is a safe Labor seat” while accurate, the description suggests that it has little chance of falling which in the current environment wouldn’t be true at all if the polls are anything to go by.

This is also not natural Labor territory.

Daniel..

Maryborough was naturally Labor from 1915? to 1971

It’s a Labor leaning seat in general, but as with other traditionally Labor voting regional cities like Bundaberg it has become increasingly marginal in recent decades. The 2020 margin is quite inflated due to both the state government’s COVID response and Bruce Saunders’ popularity.

While I see the argument as to why he’ll hang on, you have to remember that he only narrowly won against One Nation in 2017 as an incumbent, well-liked local MP. I won’t be surprised at all if he loses. I think he would retire in 2028 regardless though, and assuming he loses, he wouldn’t recontest even if Crisafulli somehow turned out like Newman and Labor tried to court him back to help their chances here.

Alp retain

I don’t think anyone has looked at the growth for this electorate, 2020, 38,000 enrolled now 54,900. 30% of voters have never seen the sitting Member’s name on a ballot, majority of the increase is the coastal strip, explains why the LNP is spending big on mail outs with direct reference to the sitting member. To be watched

The only thing I can say that I have learned from this campaign is just how out of his depth the Liberal candidate John is. He would make a terribly weak leader. I want Labor gone as much as the next bloke but this John will just be a puppet to Crisafulli if elected. He won’t do a thing for this town

I think Labor is going to hold this seat even if a huge swing materialises in the regions after all. It’s either going to be retained on a knife edge like Nicklin/Bundaberg 2020 or an underwhelming LNP result could see Saunders hold it by a fairly decent 4-6 points. Maryborough doesn’t shy away from kicking out popular local members during tidal wave elections, but if I had to guess Chris Foley probably would’ve survived 2012 under FPV, and that might help Labor here this time too. And while Bruce did come close to being ousted in 2017, that was against One Nation rather than the LNP.

I lived in this seat when I was younger and while it’s not the same solidly Labor seat as it once was, it certainly prefers them over the LNP despite how much the ALP base has changed in recent decades. It’s much more suited to One Nation and Independents than anything else though. I recall a story claiming Saunders considered switching to the Katter’s, and while I’m not sure how much merit there is to that, I really think he would’ve been in with a chance to get re-elected even under their banner, despite them all but abandoning the seats outside NQ these days.

@Laine, you make some good points there. I’ve upgraded my odds for a Labor retain this week. I’d say it’s a tossup, possibly leaning Labor, thanks to Saunders’s personal vote and sandbagging. I still expect near double digit or even double digit swings against Labor north of Sunny Coast.

Still thinking LNP gain, the Miles boost is only in Brisbane since he’s still unpopular elsewhere (even on the Gold Coast I would confidently say Crisafulli is preferred Premier by a somewhat considerable margin).

Also, Chris Foley was an independent not a Labor MP. He was never a Labor MP. However yes he would’ve won with FPV from KAP and Labor preferences. Labor actually did so bad they finished fourth there in 2012 (it went LNP, Foley, KAP, Labor, Greens).

Well done and huge, heartfelt congratulations to John Barounis.
The people have spoken long and loud. The 3rd biggest swing in the State!
Your absolute dedication and strong work ethic was amazing and a testament to the person you are.
Well done John.