Mansfield – Queensland 2024

It’s been confirmed on the LNP’s website that LNP by Pinky Singh, a public relations consultant, and LNP’s candidate for McConnel in 2020. Is the LNP’s candidate in the seat of Mansfield. A union poll a couple months ago in Australian had Labor leading here. The poll out today in Courier Mail which had Labor and the LNP statewide at 50-50. Hardly puts doubt in that poll considering the poll confirmed the LNP were doing better in the regions rather then in South East Queensland. Labor Mansfield MP Corrine McMillan with the incumbency advantage would be favored have the edge here.

The problem with contesting in multiple seats is people will not view you as a genuine local. That didn’t matter for Steven Miles or David Crisafulli when they moved electorates, both because they were skilled politicians with experience, and also because they moved to seats that were safe for their party. Pinky Singh may or may not be skilled, but certainly does not meet the other criteria. I predict a Labor hold unless something goes badly wrong.

@Wilson I’ll raise you a counter point, Ali King. ALP Candidate for Maiwar in 2017 (unsuccessful) and then ALP Candidate for Pumicstone in 2020 (successful – now MP). While contesting various seats is a negative, there are various factors determining success, as you touched on a bit too. Classic ones of contesting other seats in other states and being successful include Billy Hughes and Rob Hulls.

As for Mansfield, while I haven’t sat through all the seats to make predictions yet, I’ll say for now ALP Retain. It’s part of the ‘red wall’ in that southern Brisbane band which has generally stuck to the government of the day since 1983 (except the 2015-2017 and a small 1995-1996 period).

Most likely Labor hold. Corrine McMillan can scrape by. Pinky Singh is a candidate and not an incumbent MP, so people may have no knowledge that she switched from McConnel (Brisbane’s CBD) to the Southside. Seat switching can give opponents some political ammunition though.

I think this seat will easily fall to the LNP. It’s a seat that goes with government and Pinky Singh is working hard.

Labor MP is very popular locally and has built a strong reputation. It’ll be a seat the LNP will need to sandbag in 2028.

My prediction is LNP 52.5 TPP.

Labor Retain, Carpetbaggers rarely win seats from opposing parties.

This seat has many LNP-voting areas like around Rochdale which has a lot of estates.

LNP gain.

The semi-rural LNP voting estates around Rochedale have been subdivided in recent years, so the majority of voters in the electorate are suburban. It’s mostly a very multicultural middle suburban seat.

I’m putting it as an LNP gain, but will be close.

@Caleb You do know the current ALP Member won in 2017 while living in Teneriffe? And didn’t move to the area until after being elected? 🙂

LNP gain, 8-11 percent swing off a depressed base at the last election.

About six months ago Mt Gravatt East became the last remaining suburb in Mansfield to make the $1 million+ median house price.

There’s a couple of interesting things about the changed demographics in Mansfield.
1. It’s no longer the buckle in the bible belt. The last census data has Christians in Mansfield only two percent above the state average.
2. It has huge spikes in overseas migration – not just Chinese, but significant numbers of Indians, Taiwanese and Japanese. Interestingly enough although Indian migration lags well behind Chinese additions, they have a higher takeup of citizenship. So the number of eligible voters is roughly 1 to 4 compared to Chinese ethnicity.
3. It has a huge number of young children – 50.3 percent of households in Mansfield were couples with children compared to 42.9 percent for Queensland. There are 39 regulated childcare centres in the electorate. The median age is 3 years younger than the State average.
4. 35.2 percent of people spoke a language other than English at home, compared to 13.5 percent for Queensland.
5. Crime is a major problem, especially car theft and break-ins. Basically youth crime…

@Mark Yore I agree, I think the swing will be at least 8% to the LNP, probably more.

@Ben Raue I believe you have Rochedale and Rochedale South mixed up since you’ve put Rochedale South north of Rochedale itself.

Are you talking about the booth locations on the map? Possible the locations are wrong but probably just weird names.

Hmm yeah in my booth dataset Rochedale South’s location is slightly wrong. I’ll put on my list to correct.

@Ben Raue The ECQ has advised that polling booths won’t be advised until October 2 and are subject to change up to October 14. While most of the booths in Mansfield are predictable, the southern-most booth in Rochedale has alternated between Rochedale High (Mansfield joint), St Peter’s School (Mansfield joint) and Rochedale South State School (Springwood joint).

The ECQ has also lobbed a huge rock into the political waters by adding an extra pre-polling booth to EVERY electorate, some of them in very odd places. In practical terms, even though an electorate may have been assigned two prepoll booths, they may have to deal with booths in adjoining electorates. Take Whitsunday for instance – the assigned booths are in Proserpine and Airlie Beach, but the majority of the population is in the southern part of the electorate in Mackay. So Whitsunday will actually have four booths to manage.

@Mark Yore I was talking about the map from the last election shown in the guide. The Rochedale booth appears to be mixed up with the Rochedale South booth.

FYI, the ALP has jumped the gun putting up corflute. The official direction from Brisbane City Council was that signs couldn’t go up earlier than October 2 and they’ve started going up this morning. Whether BCC has the authority to issue that instruction is another matter.

Interesting to note that the new ALP signs are in purple and have been completely de-branded.

@Mark Yore I spoke about this on the main thread, Labor is trying to trick voters in key seats like Mansfield and Murrumba by using purple instead of red on their advertising. They think voters are stupid and will fall for these tricks, and while some might most won’t.

Poll Bludger Shows 5 Candidates on the Ballot in the order of Labor, LNP, Greens, One Nation & Family First.
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/LA.htm?s=Mansfield

It may have taken 3 weeks but the position of Rochedale South in my data repo and in the maps here and in Springwood have been corrected.

My draft version of Mansfield probably helps labor but helps the lnp in springwood

@caleb I can confirm this info is correct

As expected, the Rochedale booth has shifted to Rochedale South State School, which means there will be even less Mansfield voters there than they had at St Peters.

The ECQ is still trying to get their joint booths fixed, with the Living Faith booth on Pine Mountain Road listed as a Chatsworth only booth (also for prepoll) despite the fact that the electorate of Mansfield starts on the other side of the road. This means that Mansfield voters from Mt Gravatt East and Carindale will have to vote as absentee voters.

As the date of the election is hardly a surprise and the ECQ has had four years to get this sorted I look forward to their Estimates hearing…

@Ben Raue that’s a problem with suburb naming out this way. The goal apparently is to choose one name, like Rochedale or Mount Gravatt, and then try to think of how many variations you can create.

I assume 10 % probable alp retain
5 to 10% is the difference between hung parliament narrow lnp majority and.a larger majority
I can identify some seats in the middle range where there is a possibility of alp retention for various reasons. This is consistent with a swing of 7 to.8% plus or minus 2%

LNP gain I reckon

@Binkhorst It’s already gone. There’s a mixed air of anger and resignation amongst the ALP booth workers and the LNP are beating them in on the ground numbers and sign sites, despite the suspicious amount of vandalism. The TWU also put out a fairly nasty letterbox drop targeting the LNP candidate, with the union declining to take credit for it and simply including their office address in the authorisation.

LNP gain.

A bit under the radar with all the other results but notably this traditional bellweather seat barely swung to the LNP with Labor retaining it quite comfortably along with seats like Mount Ommaney which should be competitive areas for the LNP when the statewide TPP is 54%. Does this show that the LNP have a problem with middle ring multicultural suburban seats? This seat is the equivalent of areas like Doncaster and Wantirna South in Melbourne or Epping in Sydney. Seems like Labor could potentially be competitive in Bonner.

@ Dan M
Kos Samaras mentioned this last night. It has a large Chinese community maybe that is a sign that there is brand damage from the Federal Liberals. We can also see this in Yerrabi and Ginnadera last week as well where there was a drop in the Liberal vote.

@Dan M and Nimalan, I think LNP just does not have the same inroads to the CALD Community compared to the Liberal Party in NSW and Victoria probably as LNP needs to sandbag resources in regional QLD unlike Liberal Party which is why seats like Toohey and Stretton are safe Labor seats (minus the 2012 fluke) even though it would probably be bellwether in NSW and VIC.
Plus it wasn’t even that long ago that LNP Convention votes to support motions that wanted to ban hijabs for young women (although non-biding and was ignored by the cabinet).
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/lnp-convention-rejects-muslim-immigration-ban-calls-for-hijab-ban-for-young-girls-20170716-gxca55.html

For most of last night, for me the results just seemed rather confusing particularly down the SE corner, and this seat is one of the examples I’m referring to. I was fully expecting a LNP gain of 6% swing, but for most of the night there was actually a swing to Labor and only died down when postals came in. But in saying that Mansfield is surprisingly in Labor’s fold, and I say so because it’s one of the more conservative parts of Bonner federally (the Bible Belt happens to run through most of this electorate). I was expecting this electorate to fall before Lytton and that seat now has a narrower margin than Mansfield.

Talk about weirdness in the swings around Brisbane…

@ Marh
Good point, the LNP have also less incentive to do well in CALD areas compared to other states as the decentralised nature of the state being there is a greater weight to regional, rural areas. Even Outer Rim Greater Brisbane areas such as Pumicstone and the 3 electorates in the Redlands Shire are very White almost as much as Regional QLD.
@ Tommo9, While Mansfield maybe a bible belt area maybe it may be countered by the CALD vote. Wantirna South is seen as Bible Belt suburb but is also quite CALD as Dan M correctly mentioned. I would say a suburb like Wishart looks a bit a suburb in Aston.

To add further parallels with Wantirna South, there are a lot of new housing developments that are attracting an affluent but CALD demographic (especially Chinese). The Libs have been struggling with this demographic since the federal election.