ALP 9.5%
Incumbent MP
Melissa McMahon, since 2017.
Geography
Brisbane. Macalister covers suburbs on the south-eastern fringe of Brisbane, including Windaroo, Beenleigh, Holmview, Eagleby, Cornubia and Carbrook.
History
Macalister was created in 2017 out of parts of five seats.
The seat of Coomera was created in 2009 and has always been held by the LNP.
Labor lost the seat of Redlands to the LNP in 2009, and did not win it back until 2017.
Labor lost the seats of Albert, Waterford and Springwood in 2012, and won back Waterford and Springwood in 2015.
Labor’s Melissa McMahon won Macalister in 2017, and was re-elected in 2020.
- Paul Davis (Family First)
- Cheree Cooper (One Nation)
- Meredith Brisk (Legalise Cannabis)
- Liam Johns (Greens)
- Rob Van Manen (Liberal National)
- Melissa McMahon (Labor)
Assessment
Macalister is a reasonably safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Melissa McMahon | Labor | 12,896 | 44.2 | +7.5 |
| Judi van Manen | Liberal National | 7,921 | 27.1 | +0.5 |
| Margaret Keech | Independent | 3,020 | 10.3 | +10.4 |
| Bronwyn Bye | One Nation | 2,178 | 7.5 | +7.5 |
| Kirsty Petersen | Greens | 1,810 | 6.2 | -0.5 |
| Paul A S Taylor | Independent | 714 | 2.4 | +2.5 |
| David McClaer | United Australia | 348 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Ben Musgrave | Civil Liberties & Motorists | 304 | 1.0 | -2.3 |
| Informal | 1,667 | 5.4 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Melissa McMahon | Labor | 17,381 | 59.5 | +2.1 |
| Judi van Manen | Liberal National | 11,810 | 40.5 | -2.1 |
Booths in Macalister have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 50.6% in the north to 65.7% in the centre.
| Voter group | IND prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 8.4 | 65.7 | 3,661 | 12.5 |
| South | 9.8 | 63.6 | 2,565 | 8.8 |
| North | 8.4 | 50.6 | 1,971 | 6.8 |
| Pre-poll | 11.8 | 58.3 | 12,049 | 41.3 |
| Other votes | 9.8 | 59.6 | 8,945 | 30.6 |
Election results in Macalister at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and independent candidate Margaret Keech.
Mentioned this in the Fadden By-Election thread but Bert Van Manen has erected fresh billboards in Beenleigh (Macalister) and Meadowbrook (Waterford). Essentially either end of Forde. This suggests that the LNP sense weakness in Forde’s narrow margin. Forde and Longman are likely the first two Queensland divisions to fall from LNP to the ALP at a federal election. This likelihood is heightened given Albanese’s post-election honeymoon period. However this outdoor media might also be a play in Macalister to boost the “Van Manen” profile. Bert’s wife Judi Van Manen is shaping up to be a perennial candidate in the state division of Macalister.
Macalister in its short-lived existence has been fairly safe for Labor but the state divisions that have encompassed Beenleigh in the past were notionally better for the Coalition.
Fadden By-Election again is worth mentioning as it is an adjoining division to Forde.
What’s funny is that there is a town in Queensland called Macalister but it’s not in this electorate, it’s a rural town in Warrego on the state level and Maranoa federally.
Yeah, not really. The bigger issue is Theodore is a main town in central QLD (more notably than Macalister), but a seat on the Gold Coast takes the name (after Red Ted).
Fadden may offer suggestions in Macalister but where the results will be a key indicator is Coomera.
This is pretty common at all levels of government. The Division of Moreton doesn’t have a coastline on Moreton Bay and doesn’t overlap with the Moreton Bay Regional Council. Kooyong isn’t in the Division of Kooyong. The Western Sydney Aerotropolis has been named Bradfield, but it’s nowhere near the Division of Bradfield. And I’m sure there are many other examples.
There are several places named after Arthur Macalister. E.g. Macalister Range near Cairns. He was a former premier. Interestingly, his constituency was Ipswich – several electorates away. I think his name is used for the wrong electorate given that he wasn’t connected with the area.
Given the continuing speculation about a potential Double-Dissolution, I wonder if this outdoor-media play throughout Forde is the LNP hedging their bets on an early Federal election being called and getting some material out there now to sandbag their marginal contests.
SEQ Observer, if an early election is called then it will complicate matters because three states (NSW, Victoria and WA) all need to complete redistributions due to changed house seat numbers.
Otherwise, a complex ‘mini redistribution’ process will have to be applied if the redistributions are incomplete unless Albanese manages to trigger and call one just prior to the July/August determination date.
Another toss up and one that could come down to the wire. Labor starts favourites to hold Macalister, but it’s not a foregone conclusion that they do.
The demographics of Macalister are definitely favourable to Labor and the local MP seems popular.
I also have this as a toss up, lean Labor. I think this is the type of division that would be otherwise favourable to Labor but vulnerable to swing hard when swings are on. It’s hard to trace the recent history of this division because parts of it have been fragmented between Coomera, Albert, Waterford, Springwood and Redlands within the last 10 years. Its two contests have also been complicated by the presence of two fairly strong independents. The most well-known being Johnston in 2017 who was less than 2% margin away from entering TPP. This makes it hard to gauge what the TPP would be in a more typical contest.
Last State Election it was Bert Van Manen’s wife, now it’s his brother, seems there’s Nepotism in these preselections.
This is my electorate. It’s a quiet campaign going on here, particularly compared to Springwood and Waterford where the LNP are making bigger plays – literally today I saw my first Macalister election sign.
I really don’t know which way this seat will go. I could make solid arguments either way. It’ll be good for the LNP that their vote isn’t being split by Margaret Keech like last time.
In the absence of both Greens and One Nation (as well as any notable Independents), you would probably expect that the LCQ will have a pretty decent vote in Macalister. I wouldn’t rule out both ONP and the Greens fielding candidates here though in the next few weeks.
@SEQ Observer do you think the Greens and One Nation will run in every seat? I think One Nation will just run heaps of ghost candidates like they did for the 2022 federal election but the Greens might be focusing their efforts solely on winnable seats or seats they have a decent vote share in and not worrying about running in seats they run dead in after successful campaigns in key NT seats (the Greens finished second to the CLP in Braitling and Fannie Bay and won Nightcliff from Labor).
@Nether Portal the Greens are announcing 1-3 candidates every weekday, although they’re still missing them in like 36 electorates. But I can’t imagine them not running a full slate while already having candidates in seats like Mackay and Rockhampton where they only get 3-4% of the vote. They still don’t have a candidate in Barron River which is a bit strange because it’s their strongest seat outside SEQ.
Poll Bludger shows 5 candidates on the Ballot in the order of Labor, LNP, One Nation, Greens & LCQ
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/LA.htm?s=Macalister
Alp retain
Tossup. Leaning narrow ALP retain. Could be a narrow loss.
This is AEF’s Projection for Macalister https://www.aeforecasts.com/seat/2024qld/regular/macalister
LCQ gain.