Ipswich West – Queensland 2024

Predictions:

LNP: 40.4% (+19.3%)
Labor: 32.6% (–17.6%)
Legalise Cannabis: 11.2% (+6.7%)
One Nation: 10.5% (–4.2%)
Greens: 4.2% (–2.3%)

TPP:
LNP: 55.3% (+19.6%)
Labor: 44.7% (–19.6%)

The LNP will perform slightly better than they did at the by-election, with the LNP retaining the seat. One thing that may change is the Legalise Cannabis vote: it may not be 11.2%.

LNP hold.

Agree it’ll be an LNP hold, but Legalise Cannabis only had that primary vote in the absence of a Greens candidate. With a Greens candidate, LC vote will be more like 4/5% and the Greens will be around the 8% mark.

The lack of a Greens candidate also contributed to the easy win for the LNP at the by-election. Like Ipswich, I suspect Ipswich West will be a very close race but do think the LNP will hold.

The Greens have found there Candidate for Ipswich West, the Legalise Cannabis candidate for the by election however is in Nicklin this time.

Hmm… Darren Zarnow has announced he’s resigning from parliament as MP due to a medical condition that was discovered the day he was sworn in. Certainly makes things slightly more interesting.

LNP will probably hold given the area is the stronger LNP voting areas in Blair but it might be a lot closer than first imagined.

Would they go to another by-election, or leave the seat vacant until October?

Darren has said he will stay on until the October election. This is such a sad situation for him and his family. Darren appears to be a very genuine and hardworking bloke. Very upsetting that his time in Parliament has been cut short as he had so much to offer with plenty of real world experience. I predict the vote may be closer now. However crime is still a big issue in this area and with the right campaigning and sadness that Darren did not get his full chance i would still lean towards the LNP retaining this seat. One nation preferences will help and I doubt the addition of a greens candidate will take many votes from the LNP, only from Labor. Although by-election swings are not representative the voter dissent in this area appeared quite prominent.

He’s retiring at the next election, not retiring from parliament immediately.

Darren Zanow stated twice that he is unable to continue ‘beyond the next election,’ (par 3) & and ‘my time as an MP must end in October’ par10.
https://ipswichnewstoday.com.au/news/2024/07/12/ipswich-west-mp-announces-his-shock-resignation-from-state-parliament/

It’s really a statement of non-recontesting. Sad as he has a health challenge.

I guess Darren Zanow’s early retirement can be compared to Barry Collier (Labor MP for Miranda). He retired prior to the 2011 election but surprisingly returned to contest a 2013 by election which he won. He only served 1.5 years before declining to run again at the 2015 general election.

Another example of a short tenure served by an MP is Ian Sloan (Country Liberal member for Daly, NT). He won election in 2020 but resigned after only one year in office, triggering a by election that was won by Labor candidate Dheran Young.

Whoops, my bad! Should have read it properly.

That’s really sad that he has that diagnosis, and I hope he’s alright. This seat becomes very interesting all of a sudden.

Will be interesting to see how much resources the LNP put into this seat, as there are a lot of other seats that are better targets. This could be a potential ALP gain because Wendy Bourne is running again, less LNP resources now that it’s not a by election, and Greens preferences helping the ALP. If One Nation field a better candidate than they had at the by-election, and run a strong campaign (e.g. Sharon Bell in Bundamba) then they could pick up a lot of votes and be a potential challenger.

That’s a huge shame about what happened. But health always comes first.

Normally Ipswich seats are a Labor hold but the next election does not look like a normal election. But maybe a alp hold

If the relinquishing of a seat at a general election due to serious health concerns has any political implications, then they are that the LNP are prudently proposing someone with a better chance of being able to survive a parliamentary term. Likely an electoral positive.

@Yoh An
There is no by-election in this Ipswich West episode. But the Collier story does help to illustrate just how detested by-elections are. The mere possibility of fabricating a whiff of an unforced by-election constitutes irresistible clickbait bait for some news sites.

BREAKING NEWS:

Darren Zanow, the LNP MP for Ipswich West, has been diagnosed with an incurable brain disease known as microvascular ischemic disease. He has decided not to recontest his seat at the state election in October after he won the seat from Labor in a by-election earlier this year.

I wish all the best for Darren Zanow and his family and hopefully he does survive this disease.

I think it will be a few weeks before a new LNP candidate is fielded here as there will be a grieving process.

Phil, I was just illustrating how an MP elected at a by election can then decide not to run for a full term afterwards. Although this case is different because Darren Zanow is stepping aside because of health issues unlike Barry Collier who simply chose to retire for personal/family reasons.

@Yoh A Thanks for the explanation. Barry Collier is an unusual case. By-election winners who do not re-contest at the succeeding general election are indeed a rare beast. Mercifully so, bearing in mind Darren Zanow.
There are a few who lose the seat; Michael Smyth, Leonie Short, Michael Organ. (- Federally )

On the topic of brief parliamentary careers, Tim Hammond (voluntarily), Kerryn Phelps are two who haven’t made it into this potpourri;-
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/political-star-recruits–are-they-all-theyre-cracked-up-to-be-20151112-gkwv13.html

Yeah, I forgot those with Michael Organ and Kerryn Phelps both winning a by-election but then losing to their former party (Labor and Liberal respectively) at the subsequent general election. This is fairly common elsewhere (the seat of Richmond Park in UK when Sarah Olney from the Liberal Democrats won a by-election in 2016 only to lose to Conservative candidate Zac Goldsmith at the 2017 general election).

Surprisingly both Organ and Phelps not only lost to the former party who held the seat previously, but they also lost to the same challengers who ran against them at the by-elections (Sharon Bird and Dave Sharma respectively).

Is it breaking news if people are already discussing it for two hours on an internet forum?

People like Leon Bignell and Barry Collier are unusual in that they shift 10% or more from liberal to Labor which makes the seat competitive where this would not be the case. This pattern is more common in country seats…eg Maryborough qld

Phelps won because Turnbull’s 10% margin against labor ceased when he was no longer the liberal candidate. It has long puzzles me why Turnbull got the extra 10% between 2010 and 2016 elections

If some one here lives in Wentworth maybe they can give me a reason.

It would seem that Malcolm Turnbull was the perfect ‘horse for the course’ and built up a big personal vote. Joe Hockey seemed to have one also in North Sydney that Trent Zimmerman could never quite capture.

Wentworth, particularly the areas that Phelps/Spender won, are very socially progressive areas. The state seat of Coogee, most of which is in Wentworth, has been held by Labor for 42 of the last 50 years. Waverley Council is entirely within Wentworth and controlled by a Labor/Green majority. The part of Randwick Council in Wentworth, North Ward, regularly elects 2 left councillors (Labor and Green) to 1 right. The Liberals ran third in the Kingsford Smith external booths within Wentworth.

Malcolm was very popular locally and he was seen to push some of those more socially progressive policies (climate change action, same sex marriage, etc) within the Liberal Party. He managed to win a significant number of these voters that otherwise vote Labor or Green at a state or local level.

It has been reported in the Courier Mail and on David Crisafulli’s Instagram that Georgia Croft will be the new LNP candidate for this seat, as Darren Zanow announced his intention to retire at the next state election in October this year.

Given the polling for Labor and the general mood in Queensland, I would confidently say that she will retain Ipswich West for the LNP. I don’t see it being like Miranda at the 2015 NSW state election where Labor MP Barry Collier won at a by-election in 2013 but retired then the Liberals regained the seat (a major difference is the electorate being heavily against Labor and the by-election was this year not two years out).

A by-election magnifies the swing on some occasions…in the midst of an election campaign a close seat result MAY swing back esp if Labor manages to curtail some of the swing

I am deeply saddened to hear the news of Darren Zanoe’s diagnosis. All politics aside, I wish Darren and his family all the best and hope he could win the fight against the disease. It’s also interesting that the LNP has picked a replacement in just 3 days. I think given how strong the current polling is for the LNP, I think the LNP could retain Ipswich West in October.

This seems like it’ll clearly go back to Labor, won’t it? 18% swing at the by-election, margin of ~4%, incumbent resigning.

@A80A90 doubt it, incumbent didn’t resign he is retiring because of a health condition and is being replaced with another candidate.

This will become new heartland for the LNP. Labor will not win seats like this back ever again outside of landslides.

I think it will be very close, there is a decent chance it will swing back to Labor, but I think it’ll stay LNP this time around. Next election, I think it will go back to the ALP though, once the crime issue goes away.

Daniel, I wouldn’t say this is necessarily new ‘heartland’ for the LNP but it will definitely be seen a battleground/swing area for them going forward just like how Western Sydney around Penrith is now marginal territory whereas prior to 2011 it was considered safe for Labor.

With the polls tightening, I see this going back to labor. It’s labor heartland through and through.

Agree with Rosco

ALP (re)gain agree with mick and rosco. i thought it would stay LNP at first but with the changed state of this race i cant see this going LNP

Same here. I sense a correction from the by-election. Maybe a narrow Labor gain.

The by-election caused some confusion as the council elections were in the same day. It was also a chance to send a message without changing the government or leader.

LNP hold, but Labor will wanna get this back in 2028.

I was thinking a possible Labor gain with Darren Zanow’s exit from the contest.

But with Labor unning the same candidate and the LNP having a younger, fresh face I can see the LNP still hanging on, similar to the result in Penrith at the 2011 nsw election where Stuart ayres barely had any swing against him compared to the by election result

Looking at this election from afar on sites like this, it has seemed that there might be two elections going on. One in the inner ring electorates where on 2PP the ALP will hold station or even gain ground, and one in the outer suburbs/regions where the LNP seem to be doing much better. If the polls are tightening, and it is caused by what the press are saying, e.g. the LNP getting into a muddle over abortion laws, then I think that may exacerbate this as those who see abortion laws as a first order issue tend to be young professional women, who are more likely to be found in those inner city electorates rather than outer suburbs like this.
TLDR – I am not sure the tightening is happening in places like this, unless cost of living responses (50c PT fares, free school meals etc) are really starting to have a positive impact for the ALP.

@Mostly Labor Voter I agree, inner ring electorates won’t be much different from 2020, with the greens doing a bit better here and there but the LNP swing only at ~2%.

Outside of Brisbane the swing is on hard and baseball bats have been out for months.

Prediction: Labor gain from LNP. Might be the only one but it will be important for any narrative Miles wants to use to form minority government if he overperforms