Ipswich – Queensland 2024

Could this be in play? If this falls. Labor will only win around 10 seats (They would probably hold Waterford and a few other seats they didn’t in 2012)

The MP here thinks her seat is under threat https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-18/qld-what-now-for-labor-after-very-bad-by-election-results/103598442

@Daniel T I think Jennifer Howard (the Labor MP for Ipswich) should be able to narrowly hold on. Ipswich is safer for Labor than Ipswich West was and historical trends show that. Ipswich in its current carnation has had five members, three of which were Labor MPs. Llew Edwards (Liberal) served as the member for Ipswich from 1972 until 1983, while Ian Berry (LNP) served from 2012 until 2015. Ipswich West has only had three Coalition MPs in its history (including Darren Zanow, the new LNP member, the first since 2015 and the second since 1974). However, One Nation also briefly held Ipswich West.

In 2024, Darren Zanow should be able to hold on to Ipswich West.

@Daniel T in a situation where Labor has only 10 seats, despite Gladstone being the second-safest Labor seat in the state behind Woodridge (formerly third-safest behind Inala and Woodridge), I think Labor would struggle to hold on to Gladstone, or indeed any seats outside Brisbane and Ipswich. Plus with the retirement of Stirling Hinchcliffe, I think even Sandgate might be in play in that scenario.

Reports Jennifer Howard is about to duck and run from Ipswich and is gearing up to fight Shayne Neumann for Labor preselection in Blair.

If this challenge succeeds, I think both Ipswich and Blair will then be in-play. Labor would start the favourites to hold Ipswich, simply because the margin is so big, but its not impossible for the LNP to limp across the line.

@PRP i think Blair is in play either way. albo came out and supported protecting neumann from preselection in regrads to gender quotas in order to hold the seat.

@PRP Labor would be crazy to do that. Shayne Neumann is the only one who can at least hold on to Blair given its precarious position and that he held on in the wipeout of 2013 and 2019 when they were almost wiped from the map. Losing Neumann would lost that personal vote and if the LNP puts up someone popular it would almost certainly fall.

If Jennifer Howard moves to Blair then Ipswich is in danger too. An incumbent could well and truly hold on in a bloodbath and if not the seat could well and truly be vulnerable even with the 20% margin.

@ Tommo9 Agree they need to keep Shayne Neumann in Blair as he is a good fit for the seat and vulnerable while they can easily sacrifice Perrett in Moreton as that seat is not in play.

Howard should state her reason, is she one of those bigots who believes “gender quotas” are more important than electing someone based on merit?

I don’t live in Blair but my god if Labor don’t stop this nonsense with this quota stuff (especially pushing out incumbents if they succeed) then they will never ever get my first preference again) even though I am a young voter.

@daniel t gender quotas are unfortunately the policy of the labor party as a a whole so thats done. however albo did say he would intervene to keep neumann in his seat and byass the quota in order to save the seat

Why has it always been either Shayne Neumann or Graham Perrett that seem to be mentioned when discussing which MPs will be thrown out because of Labor’s gender quotas? Both are Queensland MPs but from different factions (Neumann is from the Right and Perrett is from the Left). Is it because only one female Labor MP comes from Queensland?

I haven’t got anything against Neumann even as a Liberal so I think he’s needed in a seat like Blair. Moreton is not in play, however, as @Nimalan stated, so just get rid of Perrett. He can easily just step aside and go back to writing weird novels with sex scenes (he did this twice), or perhaps he could reunite his old band “Once I Killed a Gopher with a Stick” (that’s actually what it was called). Unless of course he knocks himself out again watching an episode of a satirical TV show (he did this too, the show was called Veep).

If Labor really wanted to fufill their gender quotas then they need to start fielding high profile, high quality female candidates that could potentially win winnable seats, so that’s places like Leichhardt, Bonner, Brisbane (at a stretch). If their strategy is to dump long-time MPs like Neumann or Perrett then they’re madder than I thought.

It’s because Queensland is far below Labor’s gender quotas, yes, since only 2 out of 8 federal MPs/senators are women. Neumann and Perrett are the only backbenchers, which is why they’re the focus.

Howard’s challenge against Neumann appears already doomed as she’s broken party rules by publicly commenting on her preselection challenge.

Perrett is expected to retire, but there is a real chance Labor could lose Moreton to the Greens, especially with no incumbent. I absolutely wouldn’t write it off as a safe Labor retain.

Labor won’t hold Blair without Neumann, so the alternatives are Perrett, who hasn’t got much of a personal vote anyway, or replace Anthony Chisholm with a female, which would guarantee the extra woman.
If Perrett ‘s female replacement doesn’t win, then Labor still has a female rep problem.
Labor gives up too easily in a lot of seats.
If they picked a presentable woman in , say, Capricornia rather than their usual Labor drone, they might do okay.

@Gympie but they won’t win Capricornia or Flynn. That’s the problem. Especially with a progressive leader like Albo.

What does the article say about Howards announcement? What is her reason? I am not paying just to read one article.

Neumann to Labor is what Entsch is to the Coalition, a key asset that must be keep alive at all costs.

Neumann to Labor is what Entsch is to the Coalition, a key asset that must be kept alive at all costs.

@Daniel T – her reason is the Right faction only has one female MP (Anika Wells) and by Labor’s affirmative action policy, they must promote more women at the expense of a man. And given Perrett is from the Left, (he’ll likely be replaced by the former state secretary – who’s a woman) the Right (which Neumann and Howard hail from) need to bring in a woman into what is one of their only seats.

The other two from the Right, Milton Dick and Jim Chalmers won’t make way for women, given their roles.

@nether porta because with only 2 out of 8 queensland mps and chisholm and wat not facing reelection in 2025 which is labors cutoff for the quota to be active there are 6 mps up for election 2 are women and 2 are the speaker and tresurer so by process of elimination that eaves perrettt and neumann. albo has already publicly supported eumann and vowed to overrule the quota but not perrett

maybe perrett and neumann should just identify as women

Howards failure to seek Blair preselection and all the Youth Crime issues in this region plus cost of living will create a monstrous swing of 20%, LNP gain.

20% seems pretty large. This seat swung 21% in 2012 but I doubt it is as diabolical for Labor this time.

The swing will be larger than the state average. Maybe a swing of 10% to 15% with Howard just scraping by.