ALP 28.2%
Incumbent MP
Margie Nightingale, since 2024.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Inala covers southwestern parts of the City of Brisbane and parts of Ipswich LGA. Inala covers the suburbs of Durack, Richlands, Inala, Carole Park, Camira and parts of Darra, Forest Lake and Springfield.
History
The seat of Inala has existed since 1992, and in that time it has always been held by the ALP, being held successively by two members of the same family.
Henry Palaszczuk won the seat in 1992. He served as a minister from 1998 to 2006, when he retired.
Annastacia Palaszczuk won the seat in 2006, and has been re-elected five times.
Palaszczuk served as a minister from 2009 to 2012. The Labor Party suffered a devastating loss in 2012, and Palaszczuk was one of only seven surviving MPs. Palaszczuk was elected as Labor leader following the 2012 election, and led the party to victory at the 2015 election, taking on the role of Premier since that election. Palaszczuk led Labor to two further victories in 2017 and 2020.
Palaszczuk stepped down as premier and Labor leader in 2023, and resigned from parliament soon after.
The 2024 Inala by-election was won by Labor candidate Margie Nightingale, holding on despite a swing of over 20%.
Assessment
Having survived the by-election, Labor should retain this seat at the general election.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Annastacia Palaszczuk | Labor | 19,888 | 67.4 | -0.5 |
| Miljenka Perovic | Liberal National | 4,879 | 16.5 | -4.2 |
| Peter Murphy | Greens | 2,275 | 7.7 | -3.6 |
| Scott Reid | One Nation | 1,341 | 4.5 | +4.6 |
| Nigel Quinlan | Legalise Cannabis | 734 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Terry Jones | Independent | 197 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Michael Vidal | Civil Liberties & Motorists | 183 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 1,521 | 4.9 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Annastacia Palaszczuk | Labor | 23,057 | 78.2 | +2.1 |
| Miljenka Perovic | Liberal National | 6,440 | 21.8 | -2.1 |
2024 by-election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Margie Nightingale | Labor | 10,216 | 37.2 | -30.2 |
| Trang Yen | Liberal National | 8,059 | 29.4 | +12.8 |
| Navdeep Singh Sidhu | Greens | 2,790 | 10.2 | +2.5 |
| Linh Nguyen | Independent | 2,502 | 9.1 | +9.1 |
| Nayda Hernandez | Independent | 1,320 | 4.8 | +4.8 |
| Nigel David Quinlan | Legalise Cannabis | 1,046 | 3.8 | +1.3 |
| Chris Simpson | Independent | 986 | 3.6 | +3.6 |
| Edward Carroll | Independent | 519 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Informal | 2,627 | 8.7 |
2024 by-election two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Margie Nightingale | Labor | 15,544 | 56.7 | -21.5 |
| Trang Yen | Liberal National | 11,892 | 43.3 | +21.5 |
Booths in Inala have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
Labor won a very large majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas at the 2020 election, ranging from 76.1% in the south to 84.7% in the centre.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas at the by-election, but with a much lower vote, ranging from 57.1% in the north to 59.6% in the centre.
2020 booth breakdown
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 76.1 | 4,383 | 14.9 |
| Central | 84.7 | 2,291 | 7.8 |
| North | 83.6 | 1,259 | 4.3 |
| Pre-poll | 78.3 | 12,853 | 43.6 |
| Other votes | 76.6 | 8,711 | 29.5 |
2024 by-election booth breakdown
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 11.5 | 57.6 | 6,487 | 23.6 |
| Central | 13.1 | 59.6 | 3,993 | 14.6 |
| North | 13.3 | 57.1 | 1,531 | 5.6 |
| Pre-poll | 8.3 | 54.0 | 10,675 | 38.9 |
| Other votes | 8.9 | 58.6 | 4,752 | 17.3 |
Election results in Inala at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal National Party.
Election results at the 2024 Inala by-election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party, the Greens and independent candidate Linh Nguyen.
Predictions:
Labor: 34.3% (–33.1%)
LNP: 28.9% (+12.4%)
Greens: 11.41% (+3.7%)
TPP:
Labor: 54.9% (–23.3%)
LNP: 45.1% (+23.3%)
Huge swing just like at the by-election but not enough to win. The loss of Palaszczuk’s personal vote plus the broader statewide swing against Labor is reflected by this. Other random minor party candidates and independents would get less than 5% of the vote each, with the possible exception of Linh Nguyen or Nayda Hernandez should either of them run again (as independents) but even then they would get less than 8% of the vote. The swing is huge but not enough for the LNP to win and Labor should be able to recover from such a big swing in 2028.
Don’t think the swing at the general election will be bigger than the by-election. The 30% swing against Labor at the by-election was worst case scenario for Labor (and even worse than the swing they copped in 2012 at the wipeout election). I think Labor will hold Inala 60-40 TPP, but still a 18% swing from the 2020 election.
The swing margins of a by-election are usually doubled compared to a general election
@Caleb I think the LNP will retain Ipswich West though. Also, my predictions assumed that Labor’s election eve polling was much worse than now.
At the 2011 NSW state election, a landslide for the Coalition, Stuart Ayres (Liberal) won 66.3% of the TPP vote. At the 2010 Penrith state by-election he won 66.5% of the TPP vote. He had 54.0% of the primary vote at the state election and 51.5% of the primary vote at the by-election, so he actually improved his primary vote at the state election by 3.5% despite his TPP vote dropping slightly (though only by 0.2%).
the margin here is wrong??
I highly doubt a 2PP swing of over 23% from the 2020 result. The largest swings in 2012 were a bit above 21% and they were in Sunnybank and Mount Ommaney, both electorates had retiring Labor members. I don’t see this election as diabolical for Labor as 2012 was. The by-election swing was an outlier due to the lower turnout and the ability to punish a party without changing government.
This sear will have a very small swing from by election results due to Margie Nightingale having more of a profile as a sitting MP. Definite Labor retain.
This seat will have a very small swing from by election results due to Margie Nightingale having more of a profile as a sitting MP. Definite Labor retain.
I mean if Inala goes to LNP at this election, I’d be wondering if flying swine is actually a real thing. Inala is about as red as it gets even though Labor took the biggest haircut of their time in this seat at the by-election. I’d imagine the margin will probably end up being bigger than what Palaszczuk got in 2012 (which was around 6 or 7% against LNP) but it won’t be anywhere near the 20+% when she held the seat. This seat is the definition of the Palaszczuks’ ingrained given only she and her father held the seat in history and most likely took a large personal vote away from the seat when she left.
Perhaps the most striking improvement on a by-election result was Ryde:
– 2007 general: Labor 10.1
– 2008 by: Liberal 13.0
– 2011 general: Liberal 25.7
The 2007-to-2008 swing was 23.1 but the 2007-to-2011 swing was 35.8. I remember people commenting on the Ryde 2011 page discussing how much Dominello’s by-election margin would be reduced by as if that were a given!
@Nicholas and Labor never got Ryde back again. They came very close in 2023 when Victor Dominello retired but former Mayor Jordan Lane managed to win by 54 votes on TPP and with a decent lead over Labor on primaries.
There was also a by-election in Penrith where the swing from 2007 to 2010 was huge and almost static from 2010 to 2011.
Nicholas – surprisingly, it was current bennelong mp Jerome laxale who first ran ad the Labor candidate in Ryde for 2011. Although he lost convincingly, he ran again in 2015 and 2019 where he returned the liberal margin back down to the 10% range.
One to watch: Linh Nguyen has been announced as the Greens candidate for Inala. She was the Independent in the by-election who cleared 9% of the primary vote.
Having the name Nguyen on the ballot is obviously very effective in the most Vietnamese division of Queensland for a start. I think there’s been a bit of a Dai Le bump in interest in Vietnamese candidates from the Vietnamese community. Of which I expect Trang Yen to again do relatively well with.
I expect Nguyen to command a high primary vote after consolidating some of her personal vote from the by-election with the ~10% that the Greens. On top of that, with a smaller field than last time, Greens might pick up some more votes that would otherwise went to some of the micro-parties and independents.
Would not rule out a three cornered contest emerging here.
Forgot to mention: the largely overlapping Brisbane City Council ward of Forest Lake garnered a HUGE Greens primary vote for their candidate Vi Phuong Nguyen. Close to 26%. This serves as an example of the Greens’ potential in Inala when selecting someone from the Vietnamese community.
Worth noting, in the Forest Lake context, the Vietnamese vote wasn’t split between two Vietnamese candidates. Here in Inala it will be split between LNP and the Greens.
There could be a small swing to Labor, from the by-election. Maybe a 2PP of 57% to 60% for Labor.
The by-election swing was extraordinary – don’t get me wrong. I mentioned in May, there was a low turnout and the ability to send a message without changing government. There was also the informal vote mess due to local elections on the same day. The electorate may have warmed up to Nightinggale and Miles, following the loss of Palaszczuk’s personal vote, since then.