ALP 2.0%
Incumbent MP
Adrian Tantari, since 2020.
Geography
Central Queensland. Hervey Bay covers Fraser Island and areas on the eastern shore of Hervey Bay, including Point Vernon, Urraween, Pialba, Scarness, Torquay and Urangan.
History
The seat of Hervey Bay has existed since 1992. The seat was dominated by Labor until 2009 (barring One Nation’s win in 1998) but has been held by the LNP since then.
The seat was first won in 1992 by the ALP’s Bill Nunn. He had previously won the seat of Isis off the National Party in 1989.
Nunn was re-elected in 1992 and 1995 before losing in 1998 to One Nation’s David Dalgleish. Dalgleish left One Nation in 1999 to help form the City Country Alliance.
In 2001, Dalgleish was defeated by the ALP’s Andrew McNamara. McNamara was re-elected in 2004 and 2006, but was defeated in 2009 by former Hervey Bay mayor Ted Sorensen, running for the LNP. Sorensen was re-elected in 2012, 2015 and 2017.
Sorensen retired in 2020, and Labor’s Adrian Tantari won the seat.
- Jeff Knipe (Legalise Cannabis)
- David Lee (Liberal National)
- Quinn Hendry (One Nation)
- Pat Walsh (Greens)
- Adrian Tantari (Labor)
Assessment
Hervey Bay is a very marginal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adrian Tantari | Labor | 13,382 | 39.5 | +10.5 |
| Steve Coleman | Liberal National | 11,637 | 34.3 | -3.4 |
| Damian Huxham | One Nation | 3,773 | 11.1 | -14.1 |
| Stuart Taylor | Independent | 3,001 | 8.9 | +8.9 |
| Sonja Gerdsen | Greens | 1,061 | 3.1 | -1.9 |
| Amy Byrnes | Animal Justice | 1,024 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Informal | 1,247 | 3.6 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adrian Tantari | Labor | 17,625 | 52.0 | +11.1 |
| Steve Coleman | Liberal National | 16,253 | 48.0 | -11.1 |
Booths in Hervey Bay have been divided into three areas: north-east, north-west and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the north-east (55.6%) and the north-west (56.0%).
One Nation came third on the primary vote, ranging from 11.7% in the north-west and south to 13% in the north-east.
| Voter group | ON prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-West | 11.7 | 56.0 | 3,457 | 10.2 |
| North-East | 13.0 | 55.6 | 2,434 | 7.2 |
| South | 11.7 | 47.2 | 530 | 1.6 |
| Pre-poll | 11.6 | 51.4 | 18,507 | 54.6 |
| Other votes | 9.4 | 51.2 | 8,950 | 26.4 |
Election results in Hervey Bay at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and One Nation.
Hard pick, But I suspect LNP gain but will be marginal. This caught many by surprise in 2020 and I can see a scenario where the LNP win “minority” government and just fail to pick this one off, but they will need Nicklin and Caloundra which I can see falling before this.
Allot of older voters here that may have voted Labor because of the pandemic response, But Labor will throw everything at this, besides Pumicestone, this is the 2nd best shot at a Labor retain out of the seats Labor gained in 2020. Nicklin, Bundaberg and Caloundra fall before this like I said.
The candidates will be critical in this seat. Adrian Tantari has been very quiet compared to his ALP colleagues in Bundaberg and Maryborough. Many believe he will make way for Fraser Coast Mayor George Seymour. On the LNP side Councillor David Lee has been an outspoken advocate on state issues impacting Hervey Bay. It is not clear who will run for One Nation as Damien Huxham announced at the last Federal election he would not stand again but he is still active within the party.
I’d say LNP gain. I don’t know why Labor has this seat or even Bundaberg.
Hervey Bay is #1 highest Age 85 & Over, #1 highest Age 75 – 84 and #2 Age 65 – 74 in Queensland. https://pseph.io/queensland-election-2024/profile/hervey-bay
Kind of a shock win for Labor in 2020 given its highly favourable demographics towards the Coalition. Speaks to how Queensland’s elderly were comforted by Palasczuk’s strong position on Covid restrictions as well as the Covid incumbency effect more generally.
Uninspiring LNP candidate selection in 2020
Reported in Courier Mail Fraser Coast councillor David Lee has been speculated to be the likely LNP candidate in Hervey Bay. Previous LNP canidate Steve Coleman said he’s not likely going to recontest at this stage.
Not sure where Greg is getting his info. It was reported the canidate would have to face Labor incumbent Adrian Tantari at the next election. There was no mention of Fraser Coast mayor George Seymour being the possible candidate for Labor.
David Lee has been preselected as the LNP candidate for Hervey Bay. He will not recontest the next council election,
David lee is the man ,Tantari is a puppet of the head office .
I have no hesitation in stating that David Lee is an excellent candidate for Hervey Bay. His professional background is advantageous to the people of this tourism-based seaside city. David is well known in the city and surrounds, for his attendance at many public forums.
David lee is a good man ,willing to help .Tantari refused yo help with a difficult issue and asked me to go to Saunders ,and now avoids the issue
@James @Wayne agreed he seems like a great candidate.
Later this year I’ll be travelling around Queensland with the LNP campaign. I’ll be visiting this seat a few times for sure.
But my focus for the next few days is Brisbane, the city I was born in (didn’t grow up much there but still). I’ll be driving up from the Gold Coast to Brisbane as a volunteer in Rochedale before heading to the LNP after-party. This’ll be my first time doing this.
Country seats allow a mp to build a personal vote. I would not be surprised if the sitting alp.mp tetains
The margin is super thin. Labor benefitted from a retiring LNP member in 2020. Add to that, Labor got swings in seats with elderly populations, as SEQ Observer alluded to above.
I expect an LNP pickup, unless a wildcard independent or a revived One Nation splits the votes.
The conventional wisdom of this blog is that any provincial city seats alp holds will be lost.. I would not be sure of this
While I agree with Mick’s point, ai think this is one the LNP certainly pick up.
I certainly think Rockhampton Mulgrave Gladstone Mackay are not going to be won and the ones I wouldn’t take for granted are the likes of Keppel, Cairns, all of the Townsville seats (will pick up seats there but not all three).
Agree LNP insider, Hervey Bay was only won during the greatest Labor landslides and was lost in 2006 (well before Labor was swept from office). I also believe the LNP are not expected to win all regional seats with Mulgrave and Gladstone the two most likely to dash the hopes of a clean sweep.
Happy Mother’s Day everyone!
@Yoh An the LNP are not expected to win Gladstone but Mulgrave is lineball.
Easy LNP Gain – great choice selecting David Lee and he’s hit the ground running. Adrian Tantari has had a lacklustre first (and only) term. One of the first to fall on election night.
The poor choice of LNP candidate in 2020 also impacted their hopes of retaining the seat.
Looks like Family First candidate James Milliner’s nomination did not make it to the ECQ. Names will appear on the ballot paper in the following order:
1. Jeff Knipe – Legalise Cannabis Party Queensland
2. David Lee – LNP
3. Quinn Hendry – One Nation
4. Pat Walsh – Greens
5 Adrian Tantari – ALP
@Greg Yeah this seems to have happened in Burnett as well. I just went through their site and compared it with the ECQ list.
Reading these comments the day after election day was rather interesting.
A few of you are pretty switched on.
IMO tantari lost due to his invisible personal appearance type campaign and his Mexican heritage.
Born n bred makes a massive difference in qld.
Come next election, Labor will have the mayor of Fraser Coast as their candidate
@Shane Watt “his Mexican heritage”? How does that affect anything?
@Caleb how do you know who’ll be the candidate in four years time?
It looks like the Sept newspoll is the most accurate. Also what are the odds albo now goes to an early election.
@ Shane Watt Adrian Tantari lost because this was an extremely marginal seat and the demographics don’t favour Labor at all.
@AA exactly, nothing to do with one’s ethnic background. I didn’t even know he was Mexican (I thought he would’ve been Italian).
In fact I just Googled it he is indeed of Italian descent, not Mexican descent.