Gregory – Queensland 2024

It was reported in the Courier Mail that Barcaldine Mayor Sean Dillon is the front runner to win LNP preselection for the seat of Gregory. Gregory MP Lachlan Millar is retiring at the next state election. Whatever happens in the preselection, LNP retains.

Interesting that the Katters didn’t run here last time. I know this isn’t really part of North Queensland, it’s the central west, and perhaps that distracts from the Katters’ long term vision of a separate North Queensland state. Even so, it does border their heartland of Traeger and is similarly sparsely populated and rural, so I think the Katters would have a decent level of appeal here if they ran.

Its been confirmed in the media Sean Dillon has been preselected as the LNP’s candidate in Gregory.

@ Wilson Agreed. The KAP ran in Warrego in 2017 and ended up in the TPP against the LNP, losing by something like 9.5%. With the right candidate and attitude they could do well in Gregory, although their main focus should continue to be on Cook and the Townsville seats for now.

Easy LNP retain – Sean Dillon will be the new MP. Can see this being an LNP v PHON contest.

This is by far the most complicated district to redistribute in that is surrounded by districts on all sides that are under quota. Expanding east doesn’t make sense in that this is already y too elongated east-west. My Inital suggestion will to be to take the shire of quilpe and Bulloo from Warrego that should fix its numbers up.and Warrego can then move further into callide and take in more of Western Downs council

@John Gregory is far too under quota for only Quilpie and Bulloo to be added to it though. They would at best give it ~1000 voters and it needs another 3000 on top of that. As much as the ECQ won’t like doing it because Gregory has been based there for 140 years, it needs to shed its sparsely populated western LGAs to Traeger/Warrego and expand in its eastern half. Although Callide, Mirani and Burdekin are significantly under quota as well so reorganising everything is going to be a mess.

Actually I forgot about the notional electors gained from the extra territory added due to its size, but still, will that solve the extra 3000 deficit?

Just checked, it would still be about 1200 notional voters short.

@laine actual voters make up about 2/3 of a lga population when u account for children under 18 based on previous redistribution when measuring actual voters compared to population. So yes I’m estimating about 924 voters but with 2% of about 142000 sqkm being about 2849 that brings the total to 3773 extra voters and given gregory is about 10.38% or 4107ish under quota this would mean it’s only 330ish voters 0.85% under quota.

If I remember rightly Gregory is made up largely of small towns… it does not have big city within its boundaries

@John Ah yes I see now. I calculated the notional elector count based on the new area without factoring in the real electors added too. I think the additional real elector number is still a bit lower (~850) due to declining population + accounting for children (although some may have turned 18 since).

Either way I think the ECQ may avoid doing it this way as it will make the electorate far larger and give it a bit of an odd shape. Although most of the commissions have avoided radical change in recent years so maybe they’ll do it as a quick fix.

Traegar will be able to take in the excess from cook/Barron River and hill and then shed its leftover to Burdekin by shedding parts of charters towers.and Warrego can move further into western down from callide. Mirani is then the problem because of Keppel and Rockhampton being close to quota would need to move into banana Shire or Gladstone. Burdekin would also need to shed voters to the Townsville seats which are about 17% under quota so after Burdekin takes traegar roughly 9% excess after it takes voters from Cook Barron River and Hill meaning it needs about another 8% from mirani and Gladstone also need to move into callide and Whitsunday may take some from marina too. So betweent Gladstone.and mirani they are both about 23% hen you include callide which after topping up warrego is about 17% under so about 40% total then Burnett can make-up Bundaberg defeceit however maryborogh nanango Gympie and Harvey Bay have about a 35% surplus between them so once you get over that way the solution presents itself

Mick, what’s your definition of a small town vs a city? Emerald has about 15 000 people.

@Mick Quinlivan Emerald has about 15k people but aside from that it’s mostly rural and towns under 5k like Blackwater and Longreach.

@laine unfortunately it’s the only way it can go otherwise it’s too long and elongated as it can’t go north and east makes it look weirder so this is the only logical way tbh.

@mick it’d main population is in the central highlands in the specifically in the council seat of the town of emerald which makes up about half that’s least population

I would even consider 15k as a small town. A bit like Lyons.. skirts Hobart skirts Launceston but they are in other seats as are Devonport and Burnie

15,000-30,000 is a big town, a city is over 30,000.

While my plan is only a short term solution I do agree it does need to make an eastward shift there just aren’t the right numbers available to achieve that atm

Whoever you draw boundaries for single member electorates you will run into trouble either by ignoring community interests or the winners bonus which once a party passes 54% of the 2PP they win a lot of seats by small margins more so the higher the 2pp is the more so. I would argue that the landslide win of 2012 was a major cause of the arrogance of the Newman govt and their subsequent defeat. The way I would go is work put what percentage of the primary vote entitles a party or a candidate to a seat.then set aside a group of seats to ensure this is a reality. Eg should the libs get 57% of the vote they only get 57% of the total seats say they got 63% of the seats then.the pool of seats would allocate extra sets to Labor and other parties which met the threshold percentage so that the lnp only got 57% of the seats. under such a system a vote in Gregory is worth the same as a vote in South Brisbane

I dot believe in the winners bonus or fairness clause. I believe they should be drawn based on meeting the requirements of legislation only not taking into account who votes for who. That is the only fair way to draw a seat in my opinion

Every electorate chooses it’s own member not by the state or nationwide vote we elect meme re based on who we want to represent us not based on proportional vote

Gregory traegar cook and warrego are afforded an lda or “ghost voters” because they are sparsely populated and often used primarily for agriculture or mining which takes up a fair bit of land. And would significantly increase the size they were removed. I’m not sure about qld but in wa lda equates to over a seats worth of ghost voters. The only real way to fix this is have people move to these parts. Wa recently removed the need for lda in 1 that being central wheatbelt which is now under the required 100000 sqkm.

LNP hold easily. 75%+ on TPP.

If you are setting the boundaries you do not allow phantom voters but do things like allow 2 electorate offices. .. free use of a airplane.. free petrol allowance etc
This electorate is safe lnp so does not get much.. this is one of the problems … have an adjustment system so all votes count.this forces all parties serious about government to campaign everywhere… a vote in Gregory is worth the same as a vote in say springwood

@mick they are afforded phantom voters to keep the size of the electorate down as these are mostly used for mining and agriculture so obviously there will be fewer people actually here. they already get free petrol and airplanes its called taxpayer funds. but t be fair springwood isnt used to grow food and mine resources which takes up vast areas of land. as popoulations eventually reside out here they will no onger need it. in regards to naming while i usually oppose names based on people i believe this to be an exception due to how long it has been in use

80% TPP for LNP likely here.

The allowances I suggest will be be provided to the sitting mp.. so he or she can better service their constituents.Voters not land size should determine boundaries. This empathises the need for an adjustment mechanism as I suggested.

@mick its clearly stated in the legislation and reditribution reports why they choose to do this. they recently reduced the number of LDA districts from 5 to 4. my initial draft also drastically reduces warregos lda requirement and cook will need to shed voers due to being over quota as well

@ john i still disagree with.setting.a lower quota for some seats because they are large by.way of geographic area. Provide extra resources to the mp.to.allow him or her.to represent their electors better but don’t allow lda s
A suicide prevention counsellor in Brisbane.cbd.is every bit as valuable as the miners.

Mick Quinlan the difference is that the suicide prevention officer would not be paid a wage without the miner and the farmer.
We are a single state and need to think of ourselves as a single state.

I am just arguing about the lda via a reduced quota outside the tolerance required for all other seats.
I don’t think.it is needed rather provide more resources for the mp for that seat.

What are the two red booths?

Blackwater and Woorabinda

Thanks @ Real Talk

I think Woorbinda is an Aboriginal township from memory is Blackwater-Coal mining which makes those booths Labor friendly?

@Nimalan Yes.

Thanks Laine so they are clearly demographic outliers

Woorabinda is 91.9 ATSIC according to the 2021 census, there were 1090 people there, they voted No 119 to 116, the only Aboriginal Community to vote No. in Australia.
Long way from there, not far from Gladstone to the S.A. Border

@Gympie that’s not true there were other Aboriginal towns that voted No including most of them in Parkes.

According to the 2021 census:

* 1,019 people live in Woorabinda.
* 91.6% are Indigenous. In terms of ancestry, 90.7% are Aboriginal and 6.2% are Torres Strait Islander.
* 30.0% of them left school in Year 10.
* 94.8% were born in Australia.
* 65.2% are Christian and 30.4% are non-religious.
* All of the top five languages other than English spoken at home are Aboriginal languages: “Australian Indigenous languages, nfd” (0.9%), Torres Strait Creole/Yumplatok (0.8%), “Other Australian languages, nec” (0.6%), Gamilaraay (0.5%) and “Aboriginal English, so described” (0.4%). Gamilaraay (also spelt Kamilaroi) is an Indigenous language spoken by the Gamilaraay (Kamilaroi) people of northern NSW and southern Queensland. The largest city on Gamilaraay Country is Tamworth.
* 11.3% have diabetes.
* 44.5% have no motor vehicles while 37.4% have just one.

For federal elections Woorabinda is located in Flynn. At the 2022 federal election it voted Labor, with Labor getting 76.4% of the vote (+5.4%), one of only a handful of Aboriginal communities that swung to Labor in 2022 (a year where Labor had a record low performance in Indigenous communities in Leichhardt).