ALP 13.2%
Incumbent MP
Joe Kelly, since 2015.
Geography
South-East Brisbane. Greenslopes covers the Brisbane suburbs of Holland Park, Greenslopes and Holland Park West, and parts of Coorparoo, Camp Hill, Mount Gravatt and Carina.
History
The seat of Greenslopes has existed since 1960. In that time the seat has always been won by a party of government.
The seat was won in 1960 by Liberal candidate Keith Hooper. He had previously held the seat of Buranda since 1957. He held Greenslopes until his death in 1977.
In 1977 the seat was won by Bill Hewitt. He had previously held the seat of Chatsworth for the Liberals since 1966. He was defeated in Greenslopes in 1983 by National Party candidate Leisha Harvey.
Harvey became a minister in the Ahern government in 1987. In 1989 she lost her seat to Labor candidate Gary Fenlon.
Fenlon was re-elected in 1992 before losing to Liberal candidate Ted Radke in 1995. Fenlon won the seat back off Radke in 1998. He then went on to be re-elected repeatedly in 2001, 2004 and 2006.
In 2009, Fenlon retired and was succeeded by Cameron Dick. The new member for Greenslopes was immediately promoted to cabinet and served first as Attorney-General and then as Minister for Education in the Bligh government.
In 2012, Cameron Dick was defeated by LNP candidate Ian Kaye. Kaye served one term, losing in 2015 to Labor’s Joe Kelly. Kelly was re-elected in 2017 and 2020.
- Andrew Newbold (Liberal National)
- Rebecca White (Greens)
- Joe Kelly (Labor)
- Karine Davis (Family First)
- Hugh Dickson (One Nation)
Assessment
Greenslopes is a safe Labor seat. The Greens poll strongly in this seat but are some way off being a serious threat of winning.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Joe Kelly | Labor | 13,426 | 41.3 | -1.0 |
| Andrew Newbold | Liberal National | 10,238 | 31.5 | -4.9 |
| Victor Huml | Greens | 7,609 | 23.4 | +2.2 |
| John Booker | One Nation | 805 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Jasmine (Jazzy) Melhop | Informed Medical Options | 403 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Informal | 640 | 1.9 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Joe Kelly | Labor | 20,529 | 63.2 | +3.1 |
| Andrew Newbold | Liberal National | 11,952 | 36.8 | -3.1 |
Booths in Greenslopes have been divided into three areas: east, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 62.6% in the north-east to 72.5% in the west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 25.2% in the south-east to 31.5% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 26.0 | 62.6 | 4,066 | 12.5 |
| South-East | 25.2 | 67.2 | 3,226 | 9.9 |
| West | 31.5 | 72.5 | 1,928 | 5.9 |
| Pre-poll | 23.0 | 62.5 | 11,694 | 36.0 |
| Other votes | 21.1 | 61.5 | 11,567 | 35.6 |
Election results in Greenslopes at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and the Greens.
It was reported in the Australia the Greens are reportedly confident of adding Greenslopes to their existing haul of Maiwar and South Brisbane, while McConnel and Cooper were more listed as ‘promising’. I would be very surprised the Greens gained this seat, and still think there best chances are McConnel and Cooper. Especially McConnel if Grace Grace doesn’t recontest where there has been some speculation in the media.
The primary votes between Labor and the Greens are still too much apart to make up in one election. I will acknowledge the Greens gaining federal seat of Griffith will help with resources. And there success at a federal level may have a splash on effect in this seat as well.
Agree PN
This is more of a suburban seat. I feel McConnel is more likely given more apartments, a younger demographic and generally more of LIB/Green area especially around Teneriffe etc
I disagree with Political Nightwatchman, because the primary votes of the last state election mean very little when the underlying political reality has changed. The Greens winning Griffith was a game changer for this seat, but also, Labor are not doing well in the polls, which makes this seat the most vulnerable it’s been since the Labor resurgence in 2015. It’d still require a strong Greens campaign to win here, but they have to be regarded as a realistic chance, especially if they manage to win Coorparoo ward in the preceding council elections.
Interesting bit of trivia: If the Greens manage to win Greenslopes this year it will be only the second seat in any state or federal parliament in the country to have been won by both the Nationals and the Greens at some point (after Ballina of course.) If they miss out that spot could go to Richmond (federal) instead in 2025.
You could argue Maiwar by way of Toowong already achieved this as well but it’s been reconfigured and renamed several times in between the two.
Greenslopes could be close. I suspect Labor’s vote to drop by close to 10% but almost all of it will go to the Greens. I can see a scenario whereby the Greens and LNP are almost on the same primary vote (each polling around 33%) and Labor coming third with 30/31%. If that eventuates the Greens win with a strong TCP.
Where the three top candidates finish after the distribution of preferences will be critical – either ALP retain or Greens gain.
Poll Bludger has 4 candidates on the Ballot in the order of Labor, LNP, Greens & One Nation.
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/LA.htm?s=Greenslopes
Labor retain. It’s possible that Labor falls behind LNP on primary votes but wins by getting most Green preferences.
@Caleb, nominations close at midday, Tuesday 8 October 2024 and the ballot order will be drawn that afternoon.
My HTV for Greenslopes
1. GRN
2. Labor
3. FFP
4. PHON
5. LNP
@Caleb why One Nation and FFP before LNP?
Family First is a name I have not heard in a very long time, though they disintegrated and merged into Bernadi’s conservatives which also disintegrated.
Bob Day is also no longer senator.
The party had its time in 2004 at the federal election, those days are gone now.
@ Daniel T
You are correct, although i think it does have a decent support base among religious voters. Merging into Bernadi’s Conservatives was a mistake as that party was a flop they ran in the Victorian state election.
Hearing the LNP say they’ll swap full preferential for OPV was all the reason I needed, any other time they would be third.
Whilst they share a name (and both were based in South Australia) the current iteration of Family First doesn’t have anything to do with the previous iteration, which died with Australian Conservatives. This one was founded by two SDA-aligned ex-Labor Cabinet Ministers. Bob Day actually has a new party, the Australian Family Party.
Any seat with margin greater than 10?%, has a bias in favour of being retained. Any seat with a.margin of 5% or less has a bias of the reverse. With.a global margin for Queensland of approx 56/45 or 8%. Those seats with a margin 6 to 10% will probably determine the.election. I presume kap and the lnp will retain all their seats.