LNP 1.6%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Powell, since 2009.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Glass House includes parts of Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast council areas. It stretches from near Caboolture, as well as Elimbah, Beerburrum, Glass House Mountains, Eudlo, Palmwoods, Maleny, Woodford, Mount Mee and Conondale.
History
The seat of Glass House has existed in its current form since 2001, although a seat with the same name existed from 1986 to 1992.
Carolyn Male first won the seat for the ALP in 2001. She was re-elected in 2004 and 2006, but the redistribution before the 2009 election made Glass House much harder for the ALP to win. Male instead ran in the new seat of Pine Rivers, and won that seat.
Glass House was won in 2009 by the LNP’s Andrew Powell. Powell has been re-elected four times.
- Adam Farr (One Nation)
- Tim Hallcroft (Legalise Cannabis)
- Andrew Powell (Liberal National)
- Humphrey Caspersz (Labor)
- Andrew McLean (Greens)
- Bronwen Bolitho (Family First)
Assessment
Glass House is a marginal LNP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Powell | Liberal National | 12,265 | 40.3 | +4.8 |
| Brent Hampstead | Labor | 9,753 | 32.0 | +5.8 |
| Andrew McLean | Greens | 3,937 | 12.9 | +0.1 |
| Graeme Campbell | One Nation | 3,134 | 10.3 | -12.4 |
| Laressa McCoy | Informed Medical Options | 1,015 | 3.3 | +3.3 |
| James Mcdonald | United Australia | 343 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Informal | 1,083 | 3.4 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Powell | Liberal National | 15,706 | 51.6 | -1.8 |
| Brent Hampstead | Labor | 14,741 | 48.4 | +1.8 |
Booths in Glass House have been divided into three areas: central, north and south. The south covers those booths in Moreton Bay council area, while the centre and the north cover those within the Sunshine Coast council area.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre (55.8%) and the south (50.2%), while Labor polled 52.6% in the north.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 7.6% in the south to 21.3% in the north.
One Nation came fourth, with 9.3% in the north and 13.7% in the centre and south.
| Voter group | ON prim % | GRN prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 13.7 | 7.6 | 50.2 | 3,000 | 9.9 |
| North | 9.3 | 21.3 | 47.4 | 2,647 | 8.7 |
| Central | 13.7 | 11.9 | 55.8 | 1,617 | 5.3 |
| Pre-poll | 10.1 | 13.3 | 52.2 | 14,721 | 48.3 |
| Other votes | 9.1 | 11.8 | 51.6 | 8,462 | 27.8 |
Election results in Glass House at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor, the Greens and One Nation.
Two very different seats in one, judging by the voting map. Big population growth coming to the south of the electorate in the next few years, so while I doubt it will fall to Labor this time around, whichever electorate contains Caboolture West in a few years time will be a potential Labor gain.
Yes, Glass House is slightly below average in enrolments whilst most of its nighbours are well above average, especially Caloundra.
At this rate, there are at least two possibilities at the next redistribution – parts of Beerwah and Landsborough could leave Caloundra; parts of Cabouolture West leave Morayfield. Both possibilities will reduce the LNP’s margin.
There’s also the possibility of shifting north or west and gaining LNP territory.
Yep Glass House will remain LNP this time but following the redistribution, I suspect it’ll flip to Labor. Powell is an excellent local MP and has held onto this marginal seat against the tide, many times.
There was a whisper that he wanted to retire this time, but is sticking it out. The LNP will need their experienced campaigners and ministers to form government.
Even if Caboolture west was to join this seat, I doubt it would be enough unless it started shredding allot of territory in the north.
My estimates is that the surplus from the areas south of the glass house mountain will catalyst in theis district. So I imagine this will be split. In half. For this purpose I’ll call the southern part glass house as it contains the mountains and the north half Stanley after the river. The other sunshine coast seats can remain relatively unchanged. Stanley can the unite with the surplus in gympie Mary orogh and Harvey bay
Alternatively Stanley can move into southern parts of nanango which can then unite with gympie maryborogh and Harvey bay
I was looking back on this seat. 9% swing to the LNP was out of the ordinary considering how marginal this seat is and the demographics of it.
Any clues to why there was such a big swing here? Youth crime wouldn’t have been an issue IMO.
Unsure but its here that a new seat will likely be created.
Lot of tiny towns spread over a large area, i’d say Woodford would be a strong Labor town, Kenilworth, Flaxton, Montville and Maleny had enough Greens voters to get Labor up on preferences. Large prison at Woodford, would that hold plenty of Labor voters?
Some population growth in this seat with new houses as well as property price increases pushing out people and replacing with people who have higher incomes.
Plus the last government was truly on the nose.
@James
Around Elimbah, the Labor government proposed to run a highway through people’s properties, which was an extremely unpopular proposal that had significant community backlash. Andrew Powell (LNP MP) was heavily involved in anti-highway campaigning.
Also, Labor announced their candidate very late, and he didn’t run much of a campaign.
The other thing is that the southern end of this seat, around Caboolture, has had a significant increase in property prices, bringing in wealthier residents.
@A A – thanks for clarifying. Definitely the highway would be a real vote kicker. And definitely I felt Labor ran a very weak campaign up here despite it actually being winnable.