Gladstone – Queensland 2024

The QLD GRN’s have recently made noise over the fact that Gladstone is home to their first regional office and the issues they plan to fight for Gladstone. Surprised they have chosen here but could see a concerted push at the state election. (Surprised = very low GRN vote and looking at the surrounding electorates, it’s an area that does not seem conducive to the Green vote. However, it is a seat with a very low LNP vote for a regional seat.)

LNP will likely get a big swing to them here, though I doubt they’ll be able to win the seat.

This is an area where Greens have traditionally struggled to get their deposit back. They want to convey to traditionally fossil fuel dependent regions that they care about the transition and renewable energy economy. Perhaps they think the old Red North can come back as the Green North and the anti politics vote can be contested against the far right.

In my opinion that ship has sailed. The far right has seized the anti politics initiative and the fact that PHON reliably voted with the LNP government matters less to the voter base than fighting against “political correctness” or “wokeness”. That includes the idea that the fossil fuel jobs that drive the local economy are “wrong”. Even if you say it’s not about workers and offer an economic vision beyond those jobs, it’s still awkward.

But the fact that the Greens have a Gladstone based senator may help with their pitch in Brisbane.

Gladstone is quite reliant on mining and resources and related activites such as smeltering and shipping. Traditionally, electorates with large ports are solidly Labor leaning. In smaller, inland areas, One Nation have easily beaten the LNP. Lately, there’s been a lot of public investment in Gladstone for the transition to renewable energy and green hydrogen.

There’s a federal Greens senator from Gladstone. It’s ironic since Gladstone is one of the world’s busiest coal export ports. We know that to become a senator, the statewide vote matters, not just your hometown’s.
The Greens opened an office here. I’m guessing it’s to boost their appeal in regional Queensland. Regional Queensland is probably the Greens’ worst performing area. They may also want to shake off criticism and the stigma that the Greens only stand for inner-city latte-sippers.

One Nation or a Liz Cunningham style independent is more likely to win here than the LNP. Labor isn’t being shutout of the regions.

Gladstone is still quite an outlier in comparison to the other regional seats that historically voted for Labor by stronger margins such as Rockhampton and Mackay.
It has generally always been the safest of those provincial city seats but it also hasn’t shifted towards the LNP at all so the disconnect is even greater now.
Don’t see the LNP getting a swing in line with the state average here next year, let alone an above average one.

Would agree somewhat Laine and Daniel, Gladstone is still quite strong for Labor. Even at the 2019 election which also saw Rockhampton and other provincial cities swing hard against Labor, the swing to the LNP and minor right-wing parties was more muted in Gladstone (the 2PP swing against Labor was only about 4-5%, about half that recorded in other locations).

I have a random prediction for this seat:

Primaries:
Labor: 41.4% (–23.0%)
LNP: 34.3% (+19.1%)
One Nation: 16.6% (+3.7%)
Greens: 7.7% (+4.2%)

TPP:
Labor: 53.3% (–20.2%)
LNP: 46.7% (+20.2%)

Basically it’s terrible for Labor but I think the nearby seat of Keppel will be worse and I think the LNP will be able to easily sandbag it. It may even become an LNP vs One Nation contest.

More seat predictions to come, but I say Labor retain this with a heavily decreased margin.

I thought this was the safest state Labor seat outside a capital city metropolitan area till I remembered there’s Wallsend, NSW.

Based on the last election results, the primary vote in Gladstone was higher than in Wallsend but the Labor’s 2PP was slightly lower.

@Votante the difference is though Wallsend doesn’t have a high One Nation vote whereas Gladstone does.

But nevertheless I would consider still Newcastle to be a metropolitan city.

One Nation doesn’t tend to do well outside Queensland as:
– The Home State effect
– Nationalism and Social Conservativism is more prominent in Queensland due to decentralisation and culture

@Marh a key component of One Nation’s voter base is those in the coal mining industry. The coal mining industry is mostly based in Central Queensland and in the Hunter Valley, hence why One Nation does best in Queensland. The Hunter Valley in New South Wales is the only place outside Queensland where One Nation consistently gets over 10% of the primary vote at elections.

Speaking of coal mining areas, how does One Nation perform in the Latrobe Valley?

@Ian One Nation got 12.48% of the vote at the Morwell Senior Citizens Centre polling place in 2022. At Morwell Kurnai College, they got 13.26% of the vote. On prepolls in Morwell, they got 10.03% of the vote. That’s just in Morwell though which is the main town in the Latrobe Valley region of Victoria.

Overall got 9.36% of the primary vote in the seat of Gippsland in 2022. Their preferences along with a steady Nationals vote allowed the Nationals to flip many country booths in the Latrobe Valley that voted Labor last time, namely the booths of Churchill, Churchill Central, Morwell, Morwell Estate and Yallourn North (these are the names used by the AEC).

In some of the Moe booths which are in Monash One Nation managed up to 18.5% of the vote – none of the booths in Moe and Newborough were under 10%. However as soon as you get out of the Valley, their vote drops sharply.

@Redistributed 18% is huge. The only place outside Queensland where that happens is around Cessnock, Muswellbrook and Singleton in the NSW Hunter Valley (in some booths there it gets up to 20%, double the electorate average in 2022).

Thanks NP and redistributed.

@Nether Portal, you’re right that Gladstone and Wallsend are different in that one is a coal mining dependent regional town and the other is a suburban electorate of a (small-ish) metropolitan area. In Wallsend in 2023, primaries were GRN 10.7% and ONP 6.8%. The Greens vote was a distant third and Wallsend is still a classical ALP vs LIB contest.

Gladstone is still very dependent on mining and minerals processing. Metro Newcastle’s economy has diversified more into the services economy and has its share of blue-collar workers given it’s near the Hunter.

Looking at the seat of Wallsend, I wonder if the margins are inflated because of Sonia Hornery as
– The federal Labor TPP is significantly lower than the State Results (evident from Feds Labor TPP around high 60s to low 70s and pretty much most States Labor TPP is mid 80s)
– Even the Labor TPP margin is mostly lower pre-2011 than the past two elections

I can’t see Labor suffering a 20% swing here. I can see it being around 10%. LNP primary won’t lift that much, it rarely does. More likely that PHON picks up the votes bled by Labor.

Easy retain for Butcher.

Long-time Tallyrolm dot com dot au comment-section commenter Andrew Jackson is seemingly the One Nation candidate for Gladstone. Not too sure how many other Andrew Jackson’s out there who are animated by Queensland politics.

@SEQ Observer did he have conservative views? If not (or even if he did) they would probably be different people (unless they both live in Gladstone).

Andrew Jackson ONP candidate is very active on Facebook and (almost daily) writes several paragraphs about issues he cares about. He’s getting very little attention though

@AA because One Nation are really only gonna be properly competitive in Keppel and Mirani.

I suspect onp will win Mirani but not Keppel.. Ashby has too much baggage

@Nether Portal yes, probably. They may get a reprise in votes in Lockyer, Callide, Logan, Pumicestone and Morayfield but nowhere near winning.

ALP retain but will suffer a huge swing of around 20%

Gladstone Greens are running a very impressive campaign here, they’ve got something like 6 to 8 people at pre-poll (more than every other party, LNP only has 1 or 2). I’d predict 6-10% for them, Beau Pett is a great candidate and a great guy! Also don’t think Butcher will have a big swing against him, he’s very popular with the electorate – even the office of Colin Boyce loves him haha

Penny Allman Payne’s office has also been running a sort of community food bank, and has been very open to constituents. Maybe just me over-estimating the Greens here, but I expect them to do very well (obviously not enough to get 2nd, but still an impressive swing).

This seat and Woodridge (just a coincidence they’re the safest Labor seats in QLD) are going to have some pretty big swings to the Greens, comparable to that of the 10 target seats that the Greens say they can win (I’m sorry, but they’ll never win Moggill). Both got good candidates and a surprising volunteer base – If they can hammer in their economically left policies in these seats, I reckon they’ll be able to get 2nd in the two of them in 2028.

I haven’t really been to Gladstone this year so I can’t comment on what it’s like on the ground, but I’m going to scale back my predicted anti-Labor swing here. I think it will still be among the safest Labor seats in the state and won by something like 12-15% TPP, assuming an LNP statewide TPP of about 55-56%. I don’t think that Courier Mail exit poll was very accurate given the Green vote was too low and LNP vote too high, and Gladstone is probably more resistant to an anti-Labor swing than nearby Keppel and even Rockhampton/Mackay. If election night comes and I’ve got a horrendously bad read of my own people then at least I can blame it on not getting out much.

@Trump 24 Given such a huge difference between our predictions, I guess one of us is gonna look pretty silly in 3 days, it’s just a question of who…

@Am the Greens won’t get swings that big here or in Woodridge. Even Labor is saying it’s stupid that the Greens are focusing so hard on CALD seats when the Greens have the whitest voter base in Australia.

Should I do a calculation for the federal results here? I believe this is could be the only regional Labor seat in Queensland on federal results.

@ Nether Portal
I wold not be surprised if the Greens get a swing in Woodridge there is a large Muslim Community there it will not be enough to impact the seat though. A bit like how the Greens did well in Yerrabi last Saturday but went backwards in more White areas of Canberra. Ben mentioned in the podcast after the ACT election that in the NSW state election that the Greens got a swing to them in Western Sydney but went backwards in Randwick, Inner West etc

@Nimalan I don’t think Palestine is gonna be a massive issue especially at a state election.

Plus Gladstone is coal country.

Senator Penny Allman Payne spent most of yesterday handing out HTVs on the Cooper pre-poll.

In Gladstone, I think The Greens will get a swing towards them, but it won’t be enough to pass One Nation to reach 3rd place. They will also get a swing towards them in Woodridge due to Palestine and a general protest vote, probably enough to pass One Nation and reach 3rd place, but they won’t do any better than that. It would be very wise of the Labor right to dump Cameron Dick at the next election, and preselect someone who is from a CALD background and has strong connections to the community.

@AA except they won’t dump Cameron Dick, he could be the next leader and is very high-profile.

Obviously I know that, and I don’t mind him as a person and as a politician. I just think it would be wise in the long run to have a Woodridge MP who is a bit more connected to the community.

@ Nether Portal
Palestine is not important to Gladstone or Coal country but in Woodridge it would have lifted the brand of the Greens among Muslims but will not have an impact on other communities such as Pacific Islanders. I believe AA also mentioned that this sentiment has been picked up when he has been campaigning.

Based on a few public comments Cameron Dick has made, he is no longer within the boundaries of Woodridge due to subsequent redistributions anyway. A few k’s over in Slacks Creek apparently, which currently lies in the division of Waterford. Unlikely that he would contest Waterford given this is held by another leadership prospect, Fentiman. However, with some redistributions on the horizon, the cluster of Logan divisions might be drastically reconfigured and reshaped. One of these yet to be realised divisions might be where Dick ultimately shifts. His profile would probably best align with the demographics of Springwood – a more affluent and far less culturally and linguistic diverse part of Logan than the Western side of the highway. Macalister is also a less culturally and linguistically diverse part of Logan than the other-side of the Logan River.

I think if Dick resigns then yes a CALD candidate should be preselected but I don’t think he’s gonna resign just yet. Maybe if he becomes leader and loses an election or two or after serving two or three more terms in office then maybe or if he’s involved in a scandal he’ll resign but he’s only 57 so he’ll last a few more years.

@SEQ Observer he moved from a very affluent inner-city seat, Greenslopes, to contest Woodridge, because he lost the former seat to the LNP in 2012. I just think a community like the Woodridge electorate, which is socioeconomically disadvantaged and quite diverse, needs better representation.

There is no way the left faction would let Cameron Dick contest Waterford, Springwood or Macalister. Also while Macalister is less CALD than Woodridge, similar to Springwood, it is a lot less affluent and has a strong working class base.

@Nimalan I have campaigned in the seats of Cooper, Maiwar and Mount Ommaney so far. I’ve encountered a few pro-palestine people, but they are usually socially progressive white people who would’ve voted Green anyways. And I could count my encounters with pro-Palestine (and pro-Israel) people on both hands. All of those seats aren’t really that CALD though. From my observations, there is definitely anger in the muslim community about Palestine. Whether it translates to the state election is yet to be seen, although I know muslim people who are unhappy with Albanese because of Palestine, but support Miles.

Thanks @ A A for sharing your insights. Yerrabi and the NSW council election may have already provided some clues. I would imagine South Brisbane would even more of those socially progressive Anglos who are Pro-Palestine but they will be already voting Greens.

It doesn’t matter that Dick isn’t in the electorate as long as he’s not from halfway across the state it’s usually not an issue

Slacks Crek is effectively right next door to Woodridge. so i dont see the problem

I thought this was a thread about Gladstone.

Gladstone seems to be much stronger than Rockhampton and Mackay. It seems in those two cities Labor vote has declined more.

sry i was just stating that in response. back to gladstone probably a marginal labor hold. is the ind any chance?

The final TPP result seems to have fallen exactly between @Trump 24’s 3% prediction and my upper estimate of 15%. Before the polls tightened I had thought the seat would fall to an 8-9% margin so it’s a shame I didn’t stick with that given it actually did.

Glenn Butcher needs to be a very visible member of the Opposition team alongside Michael Healy and Tom Smith. Gladstone is probably not a huge worry for Labor given it’s still held on a nearly safe margin, but if they keep taking it for granted then sooner or later it’s bound to take the plunge and vote LNP.