Welcome to the Tally Room’s guide to the 2024 Queensland state election. This guide includes comprehensive coverage of each seat’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2020 election, as well as maps and tables showing those results.
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Table of contents:
Legislative Assembly seat profiles
Seat profiles have been produced for all 93 Legislative Assembly electoral districts. You can use the following navigation to click through to each seat’s profile.
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@watson watch Good one mate.
Nether Portal,
Here are my guesses at your questions.
1. Mudgeeraba
2. Burnett
3. Surfers Paradise
4. Gladstone
5. Buderim
6. Traeger
7. Returned with 10% swing towards him
8. John-Paul Langbroek
@watson watch
You sure?
About that comment labor gaining 5 seats
James,
It could end up being more than 5 seats.
Watson Watch, what on earth is your explanation for a big Labor win this year?
@Scart those are some very good predictions. They make a lot of sense actually. @Watson Watch on the other hand seems to think Miles will win the election (despite already admitting he will probably lose).
@Watson Watch nah that’s satire, right?
@Watson Watch I’m a labor member and even I think we’re losing the election.
1. Clayfield
2. Gaven
3. Warrego
4. Woodridge
5. Rockhampton or Thuringowa
6. Stretton for the ALP, Gregory for the LNP or Traeger for minors
7. Win on a small margin. LNP and ONP gain votes. I’m putting it as an ALP win because the LNP haven’t announced a candidate yet.
8. Fentiman or Dick, depending on whether the left or right faction have a majority
@Watson Watch didn’t read the whole comment haha. Ok that’s satire
If LNP were to lose then the Member for Kawana will almost certainly be LNP leader. Sky News loves him, so Crisafulli cannot pull a John Hewson, Bill Shorten or other leaders who went into an election as huge favorites and lost.
LNP would be politically irrelevant under the member for Kawana.
@Daniel T Jarrod Bleijie is the member for Kawana. He’s also Opposition Leader.
He seems to have adapted some of his views. For example, he has openly supported same-sex marriage since November 2015.
Source: http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/jarrod-bleijie-backflips-on-gay-marriage/news-story/127f976d4f7d3845cbb2f49c8889a046
Quote: “I have gone from being the Attorney-General responsible for abolishing same-sex civil partnerships in Queensland, to intending to vote in favour in the forthcoming federal plebiscite.”
Did you mean to say deputy opposition leader?
1. The most marginal LNP seat? Cook
2. The most marginal Labor seat? Cooper
3. The safest LNP seat? Warrego
4. The safest Labor seat? Algester
5. The seat with the biggest swing? Coomera
6. The seat with the smallest swing? Gladstone
7. If Steven Miles will win (or lose) his seat of Murrumba (current margin 11%)? 50/50
8. The Opposition Leader after the election (since we know the Premier is almost certainly going to be David Crisafulli)? Shannon Fentiman. Cameron Dick is in the wrong faction
Steven Miles will cop a swing in Murrumba I believe but will still hang on. He has a big buffer. I don’t think LNP will campaign too hard in Brisbane seats with margins >10%. The LNP haven’t preselected anyone yet.
@votante id put him at 50/50 atm
It’s official, Family First Party has been registered as a party for the 2024 Election. This means there is currently 8 parties contesting. It seems FFP is pushing again with the goal of contesting the Fed 2025 Election with a similar registration approved in ACT barely a week apart. This could affect both ONP and LNP but the damage should be less to LNP, as they would most likely flow back as preferences to them.
FPP last contested Queensland at a State Level in the 2015 Election, garnering 1.19% statewide. They contested 27 seats with the highest being 6.59% in Southern Downs and the lowest with 2.05% in Redlands. Their three highest results were in seats with 4 Candidates, but some of their lowest also came in seats with 4 Candidates, so no real overall trend. They might pick-up the ex-UAP vote, but don’t see them having too much of an impact this election. (As a side note, some of the platform they are campaigning on is similar to ONP. Would be interesting to see after the election the rural/city ONP/FFP vote divide where they contest the same seats.)
New poll yesterday. Things are grim for the ALP
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/crisafulli-s-lnp-climbs-higher-against-miles-labor-leadership-20240520-p5jezd.html
Grim for Labor in Victoria too. But not exactly beer and skittles for the Libs. However, if the Allan government stays on the nose then it may have federal ramifications next year.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-s-popularity-plunges-as-voters-demand-government-tackle-debt-20240520-p5jf41.html
with a 9%swing thats 21 seats lost
Redishtibuted, it’s a paywall. What does the poll say about Victoria?
Daniel
Libs 37%
ALP 28%
Greens 13%
Ind 16%
Others 6%
Early days and a long way out but not good for the ALP.
@redistributed whats the 2pp?
John – They didn’t give one
If the inds and others broke 50:50 it would be 50:50.
wouldnt it be 52-48 labor?
nvm i just read that the 2pp is 50-50
It’s been mentioned by others here before, but it’s pretty clear that what wins state elections is service delivery above all else.
Many people might understandably despise the Vic ALP for the debt they racked up (among other reasons), but so long as infrastructure was being built, a majority of voters and particularly those who decide elections didn’t mind – they liked seeing progress on that, and Dan Andrews like him or hate him, understood that even if he acted as a strongman in the party, who caved to his wishes due to his electoral success chiefly. Now that he’s gone and Jacinta Allan’s attempting to reign it in (regardless of how successful or not that turns out), people who were hoping to see progress continue see it’s hitting what is essentially a brick wall with this budget; no surprises then that support has dropped.
Further to this too is that I think people are understandably frustrated in the priorities. E.g. SRL is nice, but if things have to start being ground to a halt, a reasonable expectation would be that it also is ground to a halt before others – I’m sure a large majority would prefer it was put on hold first and have Airport Rail Link completed first. Add that many of the big unions protesting about pay against a Labor government who they normally would be allied with.
At this point, I think that if Pesutto can make it to 2026 without losing the leadership, I think he stands a good chance of winning the election tbh. I think the alternative in Battin might still stand a decent chance too were he to take over, but only so long as he doesn’t overly kowtow to the social conservative faction – especially for state elections, people care little about culture wars, and if a voter did, they likely were voting/preferencing Lib long ago anyway.
I think wL’s analysis is quite astute and just to add to it. I also agree that Airport Rail Link should be completed first and even some other much needed projects such as Melton Rail electrification. The delay in Airport Rail Link could well hurt Labor in Nidderie and Sunbury two Western Suburbs seats that are more affluent, Liberal friendly and and have a less ethnically diverse population. I would also add the delay in Pre-Prep rollout has also hurt the government. The only thing i would caution is that there is a chance that the far right of the party which are more interested in culture wars than winning government and may sabotage the whole thing and some retard on Sky After Dark will try and get them to focus on social issues instead. I would use the 2007 NSW election which labor really should have lost but the right flank of the party undermined John Brogden and the rest is history.
I can see the general idea – a tired 3 term / 12 year Labor government with an interregnum of a Liberal party led by an “acceptable” leader – which I can see leading into infighting as the 2010 – 2014 one did, before a rejuvenated Labor Party emerges. Honestly – I think the majority of Victorian voters would like this dynamic. Fourth term governments at the state level don’t have a wonderful track record. The question becomes where the Liberal Party pick up the necessary seats for a narrow majority. Traditionally they will pick them up in the Eastern suburbs of Melbourne – the great swing area that decides elections (and gave 2010 to the Liberals). We are still over 2 years out (more than half a term) – so we will see what happens there. I can’t see the Eastern Suburbs getting behind a Liberal Party with many “problematic” and / or outspoken candidates – even as centrist as Pesutto may try to be – but yes debt and budgets will play a big role and the East can swing quite big. I wouldn’t be surprised.
There is also the question of how some of the infrastructure projects coming to fruition play – a big question is how the Metro Tunnel actually works to improve the train network. The Western suburbs are interesting and I can see a bunch of minor party or independents – if not getting up – influencing the results to the detriment of Labor – but how that plays out is anyone’s guess.
This thread is about Queensland, not Victoria. Let’s return to the topic.
According to the Resolve poll, Labor are down 14% since the election, but only half of this has gone to LNP. Independents have also gained 6%, the Greens 4% and ON 1%, with the difference being made up by the KAP and others both falling 2%.
This tells us that the picture may not be quite as disastrous for Labor as it first appears, because many of their previous voters have left them for the Greens and independents, presumably mostly left-leaning ones. Many of these votes will return to Labor through preferences, and if the Greens or left-leaning independents are elected, they’ll most likely back a Labor minority government over a LNP one in a hung parliament.
The issue with statewide polling is that it doesn’t have a clear geographical breakdown. I’m tipping bigger swings away from Labor in the regions. It’s partly because the regions have more competitive minor parties e.g. ONP, KAP, and often times, independents. It’s also partly because regional QLDers warmed up to Palaszczuk. Electorates like Bundaberg, Hervey Bay and Caloundra have elderly populations. The hard border during the pandemic was popular and the fear of Covid made voters swing to Labor. The Covid factor is now gone.
The bipartisan legislation of a 75% cut in emissions won’t have a huge effect on the election. I don’t know of any psephologist or political commentator, who is not on Sky News, who says that LNP will lose their competitiveness. KAP or ONP might get a bump in primary votes but it won’t cost the LNP seats. I expect ONP to get a rebound given their primary vote crash in 2020 (there was a greater trust in government earlier on in the pandemic). If ONP increase their vote share, I wouldn’t be surprised if Sky News were to attribute the swing to ONP to a rejection of the emissions targets.
So I foresee a limping minority Labor government or a Liberal one with a slim majority and infighting from 2026 – 2030. The best outcome for Victorians is either the limping Labor govt pals up with the Greens and independents and renews itself as a broad progressive alliance, or alternatively the Liberals + Nationals get a narrow majority with a progressive leadership – and have a plan for what they want and where they wish to go – and excluding the far right.
@Daniel this is the QLD thread.
@Votante I agree I asked some people to make a few predictions before and it seems clear that we all agree that regional seats will swing massively to the LNP while the swing will be smaller in the cities. But that doesn’t mean the swing in the cities won’t be big: Labor are still at risk of losing 20 seats in Brisbane and Ipswich.
Sportsbet has just launched electorate betting for the Queensland state election. Currently there are markets for three seats: Bundamba, Warrego, Woodridge.
Sportsbet is saying that Labor will easily retain Bundamba and Woodridge and the LNP will easily retain Warrego. No surprises there.
I will update their predictions when more are available.
Could the Greens finish second in any Gold Coast/Sunshine Coast seats? Burleigh seems to have a high Greens vote.
@Nether Portal, on the Gold Coast – fairly unlikely is my assessment. Even if the Greens vote grows, they will have a tough time breaking in front of the Labor Party in the places they do relatively well in. Currumbin, Burleigh, Mermaid Beach, Surfers Paradise, Southport and Bonney each have their own little pockets with fairly decent Greens support. But that’s a problem, their support is too fragmented across each of the high density divisions up the coast, rather than being significantly concentrated in one or two. Greens vote might be stronger than anticipated in Gaven due to the presence of the LCP which might have absorbed some of their support in 2020 and likely again so at the upcoming election. But this would probably still not exceed 15%.
On the Sunshine Coast however, they will have a better chance. Glass House encompassing the Sunshine Coast Hinterland has some really strong booths for the Greens and they might slip into the 2CP if Labor’s primary vote falls off especially hard in this election. Noosa would likely be a Greens contest if proto-teal Bolton was not present in the race. Maroochydore and Ninderry also have some fairly impressive booths for the Greens.
That being said, I think the Greens are unlikely to invest much focus on the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast while they are campaigning to hold territory in Inner Brisbane and simultaneously make a pick up or two from Cooper and McConnel.
The Greens may get a few % swing in some of those Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast seats but I don’t think there’s any chance they’d overtake Labor in any of them – not enough of the swing away from Labor would go to them.
They would probably finish second in Noosa without Bolton (and have in the past) but they wouldn’t come close to winning it.
@SEQ Observer @Babaluma good points. I know they’ll only focus on those inner-city seats that they’re the favourites to win like Cooper and McConnel but I think in the future somewhere like Surfers Paradise might be LNP vs Greens with the LNP TCP at 70%.
However, in saying that, the Greens have only finished second in non-capital city seats a few times:
* NT 2008: Braitling (CLP v GRN)
* NSW 2011: Ballina, Lismore, Oxley (all NAT v GRN)
* QLD 2015: Noosa (LNP v GRN)
* NSW 2015: Lismore (NAT v GRN)
That’s it I think.
Ballina and Lismore have a lot of hippie areas and Noosa is tealish. Oxley was a factor of a small Labor vote, some hippie towns (Bellingen) and the fact that 2011 was Labor’s worst ever result in NSW. Braitling was because Labor finished last in 2008 (the order was CLP, Greens, independent, Labor) and because Labor already has a low vote in Alice Springs.
Greens finished 2nd in Heysen in SA in 2014 if that counts. Very close to winning Kimberley in 2013
If you include by elections you get winning Cunningham and almost winning Mayo.
I don’t think there’s much incentive for the Greens to campaign too hard outside inner Brisbane as there are no upper house seats up for grabs in QLD. In other states with no winnable lower house seats but winnable upper house seats e.g. SA, WA, there are Greens campaigns to canvass votes. It’s not to win lower house seats but to gain a higher quota for the upper house,
Ironically, this means QLD Greens are concentrating more resources on winnable seats or ones where they can easily come second. I believe that Gold Coast Greens are quite focused on campaigning in Richmond for the next Fed election.
@votante the greens wont get any more upper house seats
@Drake thanks for the correction.
@John I agree they already have two Senators in each state if you count Lidia Thorpe.
@Votante I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: while the Greens are indeed targeting Richmond due to the high Greens vote around Byron Bay which is a hippie town, I doubt the Greens will win it or even finish second, especially if Labor finish first because Nationals preferences will flow to Labor over the Greens. The Nationals still do well in places near Tweed Heads and in rural towns (the state seat of Tweed has been held by the Nationals since 2007 and the state seat of Ballina has been held by the Greens since 2015 and before that it was a Nationals seat) plus the candidate last time had a history of controversial comments (including a since-retracted statement she made on a now-deleted tweet where she said that the best way to avoid rape is to marry well; she also is a member of the Christian right). Usually Labor wins on Greens preferences with the Nationals finishing first.
@np nationals wont drop to 3rd. ive said it before and il say it again the liberal party need to field a moderate in this seat and then the coalition might be able to win the seat. the nats while being competitive will probably never win this seat again
@np nationals wont drop to 3rd with only these 3 in the mix. ive said it before and il say it again the liberal party need to field a moderate in this seat and then the coalition might be able to win the seat. the nats while being competitive will probably never win this seat again.
so its gonna be either GRN v NAT or LAB v NAT no way does it get to LAB v GRN
Redbridge polling shows: LNP 57% ALP 43%. Primary votes: LNP 47% ALP 28%. The primary vote difference according to the polling is slightly narrower than in 2012. Labor’s primary is slightly higher and LNP’s slightly lower than in 2012. The swings are more pronounced amongst over 65’s and in the regions.
Terrible news for Miles, but I don’t think Labor will be left a single-digit number of seats like the last wipeout.
I don’t feel Crisafulli has as much charisma and appeal as Newman did in 2012. Newman at least appeared somewhat formidable. Add to that, the length of Government was much longer then (nearing 13 years) compared to the current one (nearing 10 years). Crisafulli is more of a small-target leader.
@Votante, let me know when you find the Redbridge pdf for the poll. I have only found the 9 article summarising the poll.