Queensland 2024

Like, The Greens won’t get 1% of the vote in Springwood

@AA @Caleb @Darth Vader even as an LNP voter I do agree that exit polls should be taken with a grain of salt as not everyone was polled and not everyone will answer. My estimated margin of error would be around 5%, given that the Greens will get well over 1% in Springwood. But it still means the LNP are likely to win a landslide and there’s absolutely nothing Labor can do about it.

I went to vote this morning, I voted for Sam O’Connor, an excellent local member for the seat of Bonney and a future LNP leader.

In Queensland, polling places open at 8:00am and close at 6:00pm (Queensland time), so make sure you go and vote.

ive put down bets in Springwood, Murrumba, Mugrave Cairns McConnel Mackay and Gaven. im thinking the contest is gonna be on in Rockhampton that could go 3 ways so im not gonna bet there

Every seat has a returning officer and/or at least one early voting centre.

Regional and rural EVCs:
* Bundaberg: Bundaberg Central
* Burdekin: Bowen, Clermont, Collinsville, Moranbah
* Burnett: Agnes Water, Bargara, Childers
* Callide: Chinchilla, Gayndah, Gin Gin
* Condamine: Crows Nest, Oakey, Pittsworth
* Cook: Cooktown, Mossman, Mareeba, Thursday Island, Weipa
* Gladstone: Boyne Island
* Gregory: Blackwater, Longreach
* Hervey Bay: Torquay
* Hill: Atherton, Goondi Hill, Ravenshoe
* Hinchinbrook: Deeragun, Ingham
* Keppel: Norman Gardens
* Lockyer: Fernvale
* Mackay: Andergrove
* Maryborough: Toogoom
* Mirani: Mount Morgan
* Mulgrave: Edmonton, Woree
* Nanango: Blackbutt, Kingaroy
* Rockhampton: Gracemere
* Southern Downs: Goondiwindi, Stanthorpe
* Traeger: Charters Towers, Cloncurry, Normanton
* Warrego: Charleville, Cunnamulla, Dalby, St George
* Whitsunday: Proserpine

Cairns EVCs:
* Barron River: Smithfield, Yorkeys Knob
* Cairns: Manunda, Parramatta Park, Westcourt

Townsville EVCs:
* Mundingburra: Aitkenvale, Douglas
* Thuringowa: Kirwan
* Townsville: none (but there is a returning officer in West End)

Full list: https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/82433/2024-SGE-Early-voting-locations_141024.pdf

Here’s what’s making news 10 days out:

* The Tally Room’s “Nether Portal” votes for Sam O’Connor, the LNP MP for Bonney
* KAP has accused the LNP of
* Steven Miles’s self-described mentor and powerful factional backer Gary Bullock has been in secret discussions with the Queensland Labor government to fund a $20m hospitality training facility and “mock” restaurant to be jointly run by his union
* One Nation candidate Brettlyn “Beaver” Neal has laughed off sex change rumours as ridiculous, after her name was listed as “Brett Neal” (as that is her legal name)
* KAP MP Nick Dametto has accused the LNP of misleading voters after an attack ad claiming KAP can’t be trusted to be tough on crime after the ad mentioned that KAP leader Robbie Katter and MP Shane Knuth were absent from a crucial vote in 2016 that resulted in the watering down of youth justice laws in Queensland by the Labor government

How is the cost of living on the Gold Coast? Are house prices really that high there? I know Bonney isn’t as rich as seats like Surfers Paradise or Mermaid Beach, but I still imagine it’s still higher than Brisbane.

It’s great to hear people are voting early, please vote early and get it done and over with, best to get these things out the way.

@np are you able to map the state results over the federal ones once the elections finished?

two seats that its hard to pick a winner is Rockhampton which i think will be a 2 way contest between stretlow and libs and cook which could be interesting.

Goldie is a low wage high rent tourist area.
Sunshine Coast is worse, because there’s never been much work there.

On the Nuclear thing upthread, a couple of things. Mark Yore is right on both the perception and reality – we are getting close to the stage where we are going to need to start shifting the power generated in time via batteries or space via the distribution network or most likely both if we are to get anywhere near decarbonising the grid via solar/wind. And both (batteries and transmission) are going to be very expensive, require a lot of mineral resources and will still leave between a 5% and 20% gap that will have to be filled. I know there are a lot of younger environmentalists who are coming around to nuclear, realising that wind & solar are hugely environmentally destructive and would require large scale societal change which in reality won’t happen. Anti Nuclear is driven by a group of older environmentalists who grew up with the specter of the bomb and Chernobyl. They are now at the senior end of the BAMN class who are pushing the anti nuclear band wagon.

Sorry, that got away from me, TLDR Miles isn’t going to win anyway, and I suspect like the Voice the best arguments are on the non ALP side of this debate meaning the result is unlikely to go his way.

@Daniel T things are tough when you’re middle-class, so as bad as it is elsewhere.

@John yes.

@NP believe me there are people who are worse off. ive had to move 3 times in the last 12 months.

@John I know people are worse off obviously but it’s still bad.

For those wondering what Ryan was like on state and council results:

* Referendum (2023): 52.7% Yes vs No
* Federal (2022): 52.7% GRN v LNP
* State (2020): 52.1% ALP v LNP
* Council (2024): 57.5% LNP v GRN

So Ryan is a marginally Yes-voting seat. It is progressive compared to other Queensland electorates, but isn’t a solidly left-wing seat.

if state pans out similar to council it could give the lnp hope at a federal level

@John I doubt it will, I think in Brisbane the LNP TPP will be lower than on the local level but higher than on the federal level.

@np when the history of past results tells us that when the coalition are swept from power the results are a basic low point and then there is a recovery so with only a 2-3% margin in both seats its entirely possible they will be able to recover those seats

@John I do think they can recover them but I don’t think it’ll be more than council results.

On election night I will do TPP estimates for these federal seats that will be regularly updated:

* Brisbane: Clayfield + McConnel
* Griffith: Bulimba + Greenslopes + South Brisbane
* Herbert: Mundingburra + Thuringowa + Townsville
* Leichhardt: Barron River + Cairns + Cook
* Ryan: Maiwar + Moggill

I’ve excluded Cooper from any estimates because it is 57% in Brisbane and 43% in Ryan (same goes for other seats, they are too evenly split). Feel free to request seats to be added to the list.

I will do full TPP counts for them when booth results are finalised.

Change to Herbert estimate: Mundingburra is only 58% in Herbert, so it will be just Thuringowa + Townsville because both of those are 100% in Herbert

They will likely reflect state results given the closeness of both elections

3 seats for Labor is my new prediction.

Only Woodridge, Inala and Stretton now.

The Greens could win up to 6 seats in Brisbane. Greenslopes and Miller are likely Green gains because Labor will slip to 3rd place, If Labor remains 2nd they will retain them.

And no, I am not an LNP cheerleader, I am one of the most outspoken critics of conservative politics on this website, I am simply basing it off what I am hearing and internal polls. Also basing it off history.

Are there any other federal seats I should do estimate TCPs of with regular updates on election night? I’m already doing the three Greens seats and two seats in North Queensland.

If you are not already, please do Leichhardt. It’s one of the few seats I have down as a chance of a Labor gain.

@Darcy I’m doing Brisbane, Griffith, Herbert, Leichhardt and Ryan so far

@NP id like to see a map of the act this election. obviosuly the libs wont win the federal seats but the greens could and it might give some insight to the senate result. also is there anyway to map the tasmanian election over the senate result and those seats?

@darcy noramlly id agree with you but i think with the election swinging against labor at a federal level the libs may still hold it. if it were in 2022 he retired it would be a labor gain but now i think they should hold.

@Daniel T you are an outspoken critic and cheerleader for the LNP like a die-hard football fan is to their team when they’re not getting up. Needless to say, you come across as pretty personally invested in them.

if daniel t says labor are gonna get a hiding then believe it

@daniel t so basically your saying the greens will be the new opposition

@SEQ Observer you appear to be implying that a diehard fan would not support their team when they are doing poorly (you said that he is a critic of and cheerleader for the LNP)? That’s not true at all, I’ve supported my teams through thick and thin.

I’m still waiting for Spurs to win a trophy for example but that doesn’t mean I’m just gonna stop supporting them. Fans are attached to teams not scores.

John, Yes, but Labor will still win more votes than the Greens so the Greens time as opposition will be short lived.

If both parties tied in seats, what is the Westminster constitution on who forms the official opposition?

If you’re basing your prediction off history, there’s no way the outgoing government gets 3 of 93 seats.

@Daniel T thinks Queensland is Canada 1993 and Steven Miles is Kim Campbell.

Three seats is a stretch. Surely they’ll hold at least five?

At least 15. No more than 30.

the only australian equivalent I can think of where the losing party didn’t even become the opposition afterwards like canada 93 is WA 2021