Queensland 2024

Daniel T. Spot on Trump is a threat to the world Harris a threat to America.
Trump is a threat to democracy and I see the US 2024 election as a tipping point beteeen the rule of law and extremist populism.

@John October 8, 2024 at 2:08 pm
I cant see strettlow making the 2cp to do so she would need to knock out either liberal or labor
Liberal Party will never do any good in Rockhampton.
It lost Rockhampton South in 1969 and they’ve never looked like getting out of the woods there since.

@John me? Well, I think Trump winning is a possibility so probably just normal clothes.

NP, What will you wear if ALP get majority in 2025 somehow?

@Daniel T again Arsenal shirt.

@Daniel T il be wearing my Trump : Wanted for President on election day

@Daniel T the only way that happens if the nsw liberals fail to nominate candidates again

It Appears Katter is making Abortion an election issue.

Yes but he will have no say in the govt so it won’t be an issue.

Katter will introduce a bill to ban abortions, which LNP members will get a conscience vote for. Given that most LNP MPs voted against abortion, and many MPs and candidates are still vocally anti-abortion, there is a real risk that abortions could be made illegal in Queensland.

@Caleb except David Crisafulli has ruled out recriminalising abortion. This isn’t America, we aren’t going backwards.

This has put the LNP in a tough position, as David Crisafulli has said there will be no changes to abortion laws, in an attempt to not make abortion an election issue. This Katter bill has now put abortion rights front and centre in the election debate.

@AA I don’t think so I think it’ll fail. Crisafulli will vote against it he already said that.

@Nether Portal

Crisafulli has continually brushed off media questions, and hasn’t given his voting intentions. He has hinted at giving his MPs a conscience vote though.

He declined to comment on whether him or his party would support Katter’s bill. The only thing he’s said is that he won’t introduce any bills to change abortion laws, which dodges the likely possibility of Katter’s bill going to parliament.

Crisafulli won’t reverse it, He knows it will make his government a 1-term government if he did so. So he isn’t going to do it, But I agree he should categorically rule out supporting a bill (however he is trying to not upset religious conservatives in the party that already seem to have an ire on him)

Most people support abortion, we are not america and any restrictions on it would be electoral suicide, campaign comments are unlikely to hurt the LNP, it’s only if they actually reverse abortion laws in government would it hurt them.

I wonder if it’s possible to codify abortion into the Australian constitution, would this need a referendum? Lets say a state did ban it in future can the federal government codify it into law?

@Daniel T it could be enshrined in the Constitution same as a definition for marriage but it would require a referendum and the last referendum we had was the Voice which failed miserably so I doubt we’ll be having another referendum for at least five years.

If the LNP criminalise abortion they’ll be a one term government. Crisafulli seems to be a lot more politically savvy then Newman ever was, so I doubt they will go down that road on pursuing a policy like that.

What if the Katters announce no play no preferences.?

Of course any vote on abortion should be a conscience vote of all.mps

I haven’t seen the press conference but Mr Crisfulli must give a straight answer no.ducking.and weaving

Katter could have introduced his Private Members Bill to recriminalise Abortion anytime in the years since Palaszczuk legalised it.
But he didn’t. It’s a stunt.
KAP will always be trying to undermine LNP on behalf of the ALP, it’s their only reason for being.

I’ve been thinking about this much of today but KAP are quite ingenious for amplifying the abortion issue and wedging LNP on it. It’s currently in their best interest for LNP not to win too hard. In fact KAP ideally want LNP to fall just short of a majority so they have a stronger bargaining position as part of a crossbench. Even supplying confidence as a junior coalition partner to the Government.

This abortion issue is unlikely to hurt much the KAP’s own electoral prospects. But it is pretty likely to take the LNP down a few pegs and compromise the comfy position they were in weeks ago. The narrative that the LNP were to hoping to command for the election-cycle really might unravel from here. Especially if Labor continue building a believable enough scare campaign around this (and other things they come up with). It’s obvious that Crisafulli really did not want this as one of the issues driving the campaign as part of his small-target strategy. But he might not have much choice now that it’s been put into the spotlight.

@Mick The Katter’s have already published their HTV cards and the LNP was going to win the Townsville/Cairns seats regardless of whether KAP preferenced them or not. Doesn’t really work as a threat unless the election is close, which it won’t be.

@ gympie of course it is a stunt… but kap acting on behalf of the alp I think not.
All Cairns and Townsville seats? That is not certain 2 Cairns seats are uncertain
Townsville probably right

Are the wheels starting to come off the lnp wagon.
I hope so

LNP always claim they are going to win Townsville and Cairns seats. They have only managed to achieve it once in the last 35 years.

@Mick early voting begins on Monday so it’s a bit late if any wheels are going to come off the wagon. And yes Mulgrave is uncertain owing to its inflated margin, but the other two are well within the range of the LNP based on statewide polling.

@Watson Watch I’ve already made my bet for what I’ll do if Labor wins this election and that extends to those seats.

@Mick Quinlivan Barron River is gone, Cairns is almost gone too. Barron River is one of the most marginal seats in the state there’s no way the LNP won’t win it.

Oh sorry I didn’t know you counted Mulgrave as a Cairns seat. Barron River is certain, Cairns and Mulgrave are almost certain. I think Cairns having a somewhat high foreign-born population helps Labor a little bit whereas Barron River is whiter.

@Aa the issue isn’t banning abortion outright it’s banning live abortion. I.e when a baby is born after a failed abortion it is left to die without medical intervention. They simply want to make it so any baby born is afforded medical care and allowed to live. Any decent human being would support this. The baby wouldn’t be forced to go to the mother it would simply be put up for adoption.

@np America isn’t going backwards merely sideways. They haven’t banned abortion they just decided it’s up to the states to make there own laws. Even trump has said he would not sign a federal abortion ban if it were legislated.

@mick nope they are like a semi trailer with a full tank of gas and 2km until the finish line. Even if they blow a tyre they’ll just keep driving on the rim.

It’s ironic that the party of personal responsibility and personal freedoms has been somewhat trapped by this issue, and has members and candidates looking to limit personal freedoms by removing personal responsibility.

This issue, as I see it, is an intensely private ordeal and best left to the individual, and their healthcare professional – and nobody else. There is no one-size-fits-all solution to this moral dilemma.

I would be aghast if a man with a tie or a big hat thought they knew what’s best for my partner, sisters or nieces when it comes to their reproductive health and rights.

This issue isn’t a Get Out of Jail Free card for the government, but Queenslanders deserve to know in which direction their next government will take this issue, before the voting begins.

On a separate issue, I am not convinced that referring to one electorate as “whiter” than another is politically correct (or even correct, given Kuranda has a high indigenous population), but given that poster has previously declared they would, under certain conditions, eat their hat smeared with dog shit, my standards shouldn’t be set so high in the first place.

John, Abortion is acceptable until the final day, In the USA Roe protected that right, and leaving it to the states means people in those states have to suffer having a child under unforgiveable circumstances that should never have occurred which I won’t say.

I however DO oppose taxpayers paying for abortion, I think the family should pay for the abortion rather than tax payers, I oppose Tanya Plibersek and others calling for it to be paid by the government/tax. It should be the family that pays, or if it was via a ”unforgiveable” circumstance, the offender should pay for it.

For those interested there was a video during the 1980s during the Joh years filmed in Townsville of police arresting doctors in an abortion clinic. I think most Townville residents remember this very well and in the unlikely circumstance they ban abortion, it could cost them dearly up there.

@Real Talk Barron River may be more Indigenous but it is less CALD than Cairns. That’s what I’m trying to say. Also, the other thing was merely a joke because I know Keppel is going to fall.

As for abortion I don’t think it’s acceptable to have an abortion based on unchangeable characteristics such as sex, skin colour, etc but for other reasons it should be legal. Up until the final day may be a bit of a stretch, but I don’t think many abortions are at the end of pregnancy.

@John while Trump did say he wants it to be up to the states to decide, various Republican states in the US have now banned abortion. Abortion is banned with limited exceptions in Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas and West Virginia, all of which are Republican states. Abortions are also banned after six weeks in Florida, Iowa and South Carolina, which are also all Republican states.

@daniel t unfortunately roe v wade was overturned by the courts. None said they shouldn’t be able to get an abortion in those unforgivable circumstances.

@np what’s wrong with that? As long as those limited exceptions include rape incest and danger to the life of the mother I don’t see the problem.

For those struggling to work out how they should vote, here are my personal recommendations:

1. LNP
2. KAP
3. One Nation
4. Family First
5. Legalise Cannabis
6. Labor
7. Greens

Independents depend on the seat. For seats with other parties and independents I’ll provide my recommendations on their respective seat guides.

Of course this is just my recommendations. Your preferences are your preferences, vote for who you want. But my personal view is that it’s time for change in Queensland and that Steven Miles needs to go and Albo needs to be sent a message.

NP, I’m guessing you oppose legalizing weed like I am? Other than that I would put One Nation above Katter since Katter opposes gay marriage still and Bob Katter asks bizarre questions in parliament like asking Jim Chalmers about conspiracy theories about paganism which has nothing to do with his port-folio.

Feel like Katter is there for a comedy show. I would even put Palmer above Katter.

@Daniel T thanks for asking if I support weed or not, because I was actually just gonna talk about that.

I’ve spent over a week in Phuket, which is in Thailand, a country where recreational marijuana is legal (surprising because Thailand is known for having harsh penalties against other drugs). While the effect on the Thai people and the tourists aren’t too bad, the streets do smell like smoke (it’s a mix of tobacco and weed).

There are weed shops on every street in Patong, one of the tourist towns here (like Airlie Beach in Queensland). There are plenty of bars and cafés also sell it (similar to coffeeshops in the Netherlands). You have to be 20 to drink or smoke in Thailand.

I support medicinal cannabis, but personally not recreational cannabis just yet. We already have enough problems with alcohol and tobacco abuse (especially in Indigenous communities and rural towns). If Australia wants to legalise cannabis they should go by the Dutch method: only selling it in licensed places and not allowing too much and also not letting it be taken off premises. Coffeeshops in the Netherlands (popular with locals and tourists) are also not allowed to sell alcohol, but in Thailand they are as it is fully legal here.

I 100% support gay marriage and gay rights. I have gay and lesbian friends and my two favourite soccer teams have lesbian players on their women’s teams.

As for Bob Katter, he needs to retire, he’s too old and he’s gone mad. Now that I think about it, maybe One Nation above KAP? I don’t know but I think KAP has some good policies and some bad ones. Maybe the younger MPs are less mad, I don’t know. But at least he makes Parliament funny.

@np obviously your talking about the matilda…. I love bob katter he’s awesome. We need more politicians like bob

@John yes, but also I support Sydney FC and Tottenham Hotspur (clubs).

As for Bob he’s got good and bad policies, but he’s getting old so he’ll retire in the next few years.

The Aussies Elect channel on YouTube has a prediction video for the state election https://youtu.be/DoYF0altnq4?si=l0DjTRXGemD2y1N0

@Caleb thanks, I’ll have a look at that now.

Video suggests 55 to 56% 2PP in favour of the lnp and that they win 55 seats approx. That said there were 3 to 4 iffy seats that could remain with Labor
Be generous and give them to Labor get something like 51 lnp seats very close

@Mick Quinlivan yeah I think it’ll be a lot worse for Labor than that. I’m watching it now.

What I agree with from the video:
* Labor will lose a ton of seats and lose government.
* Steven Miles has no charisma (brainrot translation: Miles has no rizz).
* David Crisafulli won the debate.
* Labor will be wiped out in Townsville and Cairns.

What I disagree with:
* Labor won’t retain any seats north of the Sunshine Coast.
* Hervey Bay will be a thrashing for Labor, I expect it to be at least 60%+ for the LNP on TPP at the very minimum.
* The LNP will lose more seats in Brisbane than just Aspley, Pine Rivers, Pumicestone and Redlands. They will definitely lose seats like Mansfield and may even lose Logan.

NP, those guys have been known to be biased and lean ALP, I don’t trust most of these youtubers, There is this American guy who does USA elections with 100,000 subs named ”Lets Talk Elections” these people are biased left-wing who only are making ”predictions” based on what they want to happen.

I take these Youtube videos with a grain of salt and never trust them.

LNP landslide folks,

LNP 72 (+38) (From previous election so I count Ipswich West as a gain)
ALP 12 (-40)
GRN 4 (+2)
KAP 3 (0) (Mirani doesn’t count as it’s notional PHON)
IND 2 (+1)
PHON 0 (-1)

If you asked me last week I would’ve said 76 for the LNP so it has narrowed a tiny bit, Maybe ALP barely hold Jordan and Waterford now (I am listing them as barely ALP held now)

TPP 59-41 LNP (12% swing to LNP)

@Daniel T which seats in particular do you think Labor will hold?

Also are the two Greens gains Cooper and McConnel and is Rockhampton the independent gain?

@Daniel T, which KAP seat are they losing? You’re saying Mirani doesn’t count as a gain but I infer from that that KAP wins there.

If onp loses to kap that means 4 kap

@Real Talk I believe he has Mirani as an LNP gain and then KAP retain all three of their seats.