Queensland 2024

Wikipedia page has been updated with the Redbridge, Resolve and Wolf & Smith polls now. The other vote is huge for all of them.

@ SEQ Observer I agree that the 29% for Labor in the Redbridge poll is probably more accurate than the 23 and 24% in the other 2. I really doubt LCQ, FFP and Indis will end up with ~12%.

The Redbridge poll is comparatively optimistic for Labor’s PV, they have it at 29% whereas Wolf & Smith and Resolve are saying 24% and 23% respectively. I’m inclined to trust the Redbridge poll most of the three but my gut says it’ll land a point or two lower. Might be enough to shut the Greens out of Greenslopes and Miller. I don’t see Bulimba being lost in any case. I still basically expect Labor to lose nearly if not every seat with less than a 10 point margin, and maybe more (Maryborough, Murrumba, Mulgrave etc).

I would run a campaign put the lnp candidate last

I’m thinking the 2pp vote will be LNP 59% ALP 41% Labor will only hold Nudgee, Sandgate, Morayfield and Gladstone north of the river

Curious to hear from commenters here – at this point, what are your predictions for how many seats each party will win?

@Nicholas good question.

I think:

* LNP: 78-70
* Labor: 10-14
* Greens: 3-4
* KAP: 3-4
* Independent: 0-1

Crossbench seats:

* Definitely: Hill (KAP), Hinchinbrook (KAP), Maiwar (Greens), South Brisbane (Greens), Tragear (KAP)
* Definitely one, maybe both: Cooper (Greens), McConnel (Greens)
* Likely: Noosa (independent)
* Maybe: Mirani (KAP)

I’m starting to think the LNP will finish first or second in all “non-classic” seats (i.e seats where the TCP count is not between the two major parties).

I think the LNP will finish ahead of the Greens on first preferences in Cooper and Maiwar plus maybe McConnel but will lose to the Greens on Labor preferences. The LNP could also finish first in Noosa but Sandy Bolton will get elected on Labor and Greens preferences. Same goes for Stephen Andrew in Mirani he could win but he might only win on Labor and One Nation preferences. I wouldn’t be too surprised if they finished ahead of Labor and the Greens in South Brisbane even but that’ll still be a Greens seat.

@Nicholas I think Labor can still reasonably win 15-18 seats so long as the polling gap doesn’t widen even further. It’s hard to say for certain because I think there will be above average swings to the LNP in Moreton Bay seats like Kurwongbah, Bancroft, etc. and potentially other outer areas of Brisbane like Logan and Ipswich.

The LNP will win 63+ seats and the Katter’s will hold their current 4 while the Greens pick up both Cooper and McConnel to get 4 as well. Bolton holds Noosa with a reduced margin and Strelow wins in Rockhampton on third-place Labor preferences.

I think Labor will lose, but not as badly as 2012 because the swings will be more geographically concentrated in regional Queensland.

LNP: 66
Labor: 19
Greens: 4 (Maiwar, S Brisbane, McConnel, Cooper)
Katter: 4 (Traeger, Hill, Hinchinbrook, Mirani)
Independent: 1 (Noosa)
One Nation: 0

Wilson, why do you have the unpopular Andrew retaining Mirani? He is another Ronan Lee and we all know how his 2009 bid in Indooroopilly under a different party banner turned out…

Daniel T, is he unpopular? Have you heard reports from on the ground that his constituents are displeased with him?

@Wilson he was recently dumped by ONP and i dont think he’ll carry the party vote with him he will likely only carry a small percentage with him and its not in the KAP area so i doubt they’ll bring any decent vote either. id say LNP gain on the bzck of a statewide surge and the lnp will benefit from preferences as if its vs LAB theyll get ONP preferences and if its vs ONP theyll get LAB preferences so unless its ONP vs LAB its a LNP gain

I thought Andrew was reasonably popular in Mirani, but then again, I’m not from that electorate. I think it could be a KAP gain, if Andrew stays in the top two against the LNP, he’ll benefit from Labor and One Nation preferences.

I think the LNP will win Mirani but I still think it’s possible for Stephen Andrew to retain it as a KAP MP. Traditionally Mirani is in a more One Nation area as opposed to Katter country.

seeing the Redbridge poll be Labor 45.5 – 54.5 LNP overall & with Inner & Middle Suburbs favoring labor 63 to 37, i’d assume that means everywhere else it was Labor 28 – 72 LNP. now im not sure what constitutes middle suburbs but looking at the results from all Inner Metropolitan seats combined was Labor 55.58 to 44.42, that would be a 7-8% swing to Labor in those seats.

@Claeb that would put a seat like Gladstone in the endangered area despite it being on a 23.5% margin

@NP i think your prediction is a little optimistic, Wilsons prediction is probably more closer to what i think it will be ive got
LNP: 64
Labor: 22
Greens: 4 (Maiwar, S Brisbane, McConnel, Cooper)
Katter: 3 (Traeger, Hill, Hinchinbrook)
Independent: 1 (Noosa)
One Nation: 0

Redbridges poll arent as accurate it will be interesting to see another newspoll

Redbridge polls might be OK on a statewide basis but when they try to provide regional figures they go all awry – we have seen that with various Victorian state polls. It would be helpful if they define what their regions are – noting that they tend to change them poll to poll.

Andrew down played his role as a onp mp.He acted as an independent.. this upset the powers that be in
Onp who disendorsed him. In nsw we have members of sff who became independents and were easily reelected. Think he will be reelected as a kap candidate

@Darth Vader after looking at the 2020 results and comparing them to the opinion poll remote, rural & regional areas for labor would swing an average of 12 points against them.

Stephen Andrew reminds me a bit of Rosa Lee Long, who held the old seat of Tablelands until a redistribution blasted her out. She never quit the party, but might as well have been an independent for her last few elections. If Andrew won in 2020 as a quasi-independent, he could win with KAP. There’s been a few LNP MPs over years who’ve defected to KAP, mostly unsuccessfully (except for Shane Knuth), but defecting from ON is a different game. It’ll be interesting.

@Bird of paradox It helps that the Katter’s are definitely more suited to Mirani than Scenic Rim (formerly Beaudesert) and Condamine/Nanango where Aidan McLindon and Ray Hopper represented/ran for respectively. If One Nation were to preference the LNP above him out of spite, and I wouldn’t put it past them, then depending on what % of the vote they get he might lose, but as of now I think he’ll be alright.

Unrelated but I hope the next redistribution reconfigures Central QLD. Former Mount Morgan/Fitzroy shire being in the same electorate as Mackay suburbs is a mess.

I’m not yet familiar enough to make a QLD Seats prediction, but I will share my current PV and 2PP prediction:

LNP: 43% (+7)
ALP: 28% (-11.5)
GRN: 12% (+2.5)
KAP: 3% (+0.5)
ONP: 8% (+1)
OTH: 6% (+0.5)
2PP: LNP 55.5 – 45.5 ALP

Also, does anyone know where I can get a good GeoJSON or Shapefile map of the QLD electorates? The one on the ECQ website is really ugly as it fills in the ocean off of coastal electorates rather than showing islands.

@The Banana Republic

ABS have cleaner ones with the State Electoral Divisions section.

@Darth Vader @A A In the regions One Nation and KAP are pretty much interchangeable. Except for Traegar, of course, because it’s a Katter feudal seat. A lot of their votes have them twinned with each other at 1,2 or 2,1 so it comes down to which of them can jump ahead after preferences and who can do the best deal with those eliminated earlier.

They owe their existence to those voters who would never vote ALP, LNP or Green. Having said that, KAP is fractionally ahead in at least trying to make government work, particularly for their own electorates.

@Laine Just because the HTVs recommend voting a certain way doesn’t mean that the KAP/PHON voters will do that. I calculated the ability of One Nation to deliver preferences, using the vote in Longman in 2017 and the by-election in 2018 where PHON preferenced Labor the first time and the LNP the second. Their preferences made a difference of less than 2 percent to the final result.

@Wilson Yes, because there are seats that shifted in 2012 that are definitely not on the radar now. While the ALP is likely to lose all of their marginal seats the picture beyond that is patchy. I think they’ll keep Cook but it will come down to a handful of votes. Springwood and Rockhampton will be very tough contests but Capalaba and Mansfield will swing fairly early in the piece.

Once you get to the seats with a 10 percent buffer I think it will be all over the place. I’m expecting the ALP to hold Mount Ommaney even though the demographics suggest they shouldn’t. The only potential shifts in the 13 percent plus range would be Morayfield and Lytton, and maybe Miller to The Greens. I wouldn’t discount the Premier losing his own seat, but realistically I think the highest achievable seat for the LNP is Stafford.

lol I really wouldn’t be holding my breath for a Labor retain in Rocky. Springwood? Maybe.

Marginal seat 5% or less

Follow-up question given most are predicting low seat counts for Labor – which seats will Labor retain? Any outliers relative to uniform swing, that is, relatively marginal seats that Labor holds, or very safe seats that it loses?

@Nicholas for a potential Labor hold I’d go for Cook (6.3%), it might behave similarly to some NT seats last month. As for an unanticipated loss, maybe Greenslopes and/or Miller (13.2% & 13.8%) to the Greens, but Miles’ policies may be helping avoid a Green surge in the inner-city. I don’t think the LNP will win any seat with a larger margin than Kurwongbah (and they may not even win several with a smaller margin) unless there’s an unexpectedly large swing in Logan, Lytton, Stretton or Toohey.

Laine, just so you know, I miscounted the number of seats and ended up with a total of 94, so I’d knock one off the LNP total in mine. I notice your total is also 94 so possibly you based your prediction on mine.

@Wilson I think you mixed me up with @Darth Vader as their prediction looks similar to yours and totals to 94 as well. I only came up with a rough range for the LAB/LNP seat count.

Sorry, you’re right. Similar coloured avatars.

Just on One Nation preferences and how it plays out on the ground. A few elections back I had information sourced to me about two country town booths in towns five minutes down the road to me in a rural seat. Let’s just say it’s in one of Mirani, Burdekin, Burnett, Callide, Keppel.

Anyway these two booths were five minutes apart and One Nation had four booth workers on shift at one, at the other someone stuck their how to vote on a poll with a nail.

The booth with the workers voted One Nation 25% and the one with the htv on a pole 24%. The preference flow was pretty similar at both and not really following the htv.

I took a few lessons from this. Firstly as we know One Nation preferences flows are pretty wild and don’t really follow their htv strongly.

Secondly I don’t think having booth workers impact their voter base or attracts extra votes. I’ve often wondered about whether we generally over play booth presence for all voters as well.

Thirdly One Nation is a disorganised mess in most seats. It would have been easy to send one or two of those workers down the road to the next booth. But being disorganised and not having a booth presence doesn’t really matter for them.

BREAKING: SPORTSBET CALLS ELECTION FOR LNP

Sportsbet has suspended betting for the LNP to win the Queensland state election in October, though markets are still up for other parties (though the odds are very unfavourable).

@np suspending betting on the lnp isn’t calling the election. If they had called the election they would stop the entire market. Likely they are reassessing th odds

Also giggles has promised to make the 50c fares permanent if Labor win. I have never seen a more desperate move to sure up votes. Labor knows they can’t win and are trying to beg for votes. If he wanted to that he could have legislated it. It is economic recklessness to promise that and if he were to somehow win qld would be down the toilet. It would probably cost the budget close to 1/2 a billion dollars to do that.

@John Crisafulli has said he will keep 50c fares too. And the LNP fully supported Labor’s budget.

@a a when?

@a a I’m pretty sure your talking about the 6 month trial not the permanent measure

@John thus is from the courier mail today, after Miles announced that the trial would become permanent: “Opposition Leader David Crisafulli has today announced he will keep the state government’s major cost-of-living pledge of 50c public transport fares in place if elected in October.”

@ np Sportsbet paid out for the ALP Federally early in 2019 and had to pay for the LNP who won it. Cost them $5.2 Million. I am not saying Labor will win in Queensland but they have been burnt before.

@damian they also paid out on Hillary Clinton in 2016. Never pay before the horse crosses the finish line

@Damian @John correct but usually the odds are right. They don’t pay out sports matches before they start though, so it’s unique to elections. But in big games they don’t do it often anyway, at least for actual sports (for example in the Premier League when Tottenham Hotspur play Arsenal tonight in the North London Derby they won’t pay out until the end of the match, come on you Spurs!), unless it’s a big score by the near end of the game.

But I agree it’s silly that they do do early payouts even when the result is obvious (they did it for the UK election earlier this year).

NP, In the extremely unlikely scenario the LNP don’t win or if a poll during the campaign only shows a 52-48 lead for the LNP (somehow) Will Sportsbet reverse their decision? Will they still payout LNP betters even if they somehow lost? Or will they still stay true to the previous bets people made? I believe it would be illegal for them to go against the result anyway.

If they payout the wrong side because they themselves pre-empted the result. are the people forced to pay back, or does the company simply lose the money and they also have to pay the side they presumed would lose?

A law needs to be passes where gambling websites cannot payout early, this will prevent this from occurring as rare and unlikely it may occur.

It happened during the 2019 Federal election.

@daniel t no they don’t have to return the money. They have to pay winning bets. Otherwise that would be theft. Why do you care is betting companies lose money on early payouts

Sportsbet have paid out early before on sporting premiership winners (Melbourne FC in the 2021 AFL season being an example that comes to mind). That’s more analogous to the total number of seats in the chamber than to a single match, which is more analogous to an individual seat contest.

The betting sites really don’t hold that much on the election markets, so paying out early and getting the wrong result doesn’t hurt them that much. Certainly the free publicity more than makes up for any losses they may incur.

@Daniel T, I am no wowser, love a bet on a Saturday afternoon, but a little bit (not too much) of regulation around some of these things wouldn’t hurt.

Oh, and the press not reporting this and giving them that publicity would be a good thing.

@Daniel T @MLV I agree, usually they don’t do it and they shouldn’t do it. To use my example of last night’s EPL match, if Spurs came back and made it 1–1 but the bookies paid out for Arsenal as soon as it was 1–0 to them then they’ve paid out the wrong winner (sadly we did not come back though and a Gunners goal in the second half saw us lose 1–0, but still a good effort from Big Ange the Aussie).

But that would be just one match (albeit a big one). If it was an entire election result that they got wrong (they did this for the 2019 federal election) it costs them millions of dollars and people who betted for the actual winner get robbed by the people who betted for the actual losers, and elections don’t happen all the time unlike sports matches.

@np I had money on the lions late in the 3rd and it paid off