Queensland 2024

@Scart I agree the anti-terrorism squad shouldn’t have arrested his producer but I don’t blame Gladys or the Libs and Nats for that, it’s Barilaro and his lawyers’ fault.

Also as for the corruption I agree in fact I can’t find any videos of him criticism of Kristina Keneally or Eddie Obeid either. Gladys wasn’t corrupt, Darryl Maguire was.

Barilaro was the eddie obedience of the national party

Obeid

The dlp …latest version is
Like the communist party.. latest version. Not the same organisation and also no common personally
The originals were mirror images of each other

@Mick Quinlivan how is the DLP like the Communist Party when the Communist Party supports communism and the DLP supports social conservatism, labourism and social democracy?

@Nether Portal The Australian Financial Review, The Courier Mail, The Herald Sun and The Australian are good examples of LNP defence rackets. And I get your point about Sky News pushing the coalition to the right, but generally, they attack Labor but defend the coalition.

Also, I don’t think Friendly Jodie’s was around when Eddie Obeid got done for corruption. So obviously there’s no videos about that.

I do criticise the ABC for being too left-wing, their media attacks conservatives a lot more than they attack progressives. Like when Mark Latham posted those homophobic tweets, the ABC ran multiple news articles and full coverage (which he deserved). But when Lidia Thorpe was filmed on a racist and sexist rant outside that club, the ABC was completely silent. Even their own Media Watch pointed out the hypocrisy. The ABC have also published data given to them by The Greens, without any fact-checking. The data showed gambling-related donations given to Labor, the LNP and One Nation (it even classed the unions as “gambling-related”, because they represent workers in the gambling industry), but failed to mention the over $400,000 in donations that The Greens received from a gambling millionaire. So I am a believer that the ABC needs to stop taking sides in politics, and just report the facts.

@A A AFR and Australian are definitely Liberal leaning but are at least fairly objective. Same can’t be said for Newscorp tabloids.

Vice versa for say, SMH vs Guardian on the left.

@AA agreed about Sky, but they do criticise moderates as if they were Labor, the Greens or the teals. The Australian and AFR get a “lean right” score on my system, and the ABC and The Conversation get a “lean left” score, i.e they’re credible news sources but tend to endorse (or skew their language to be supportive of) one side of politics, whereas Sky News is “partisan right” and The Project is “partisan left”, meaning they are actively partisan in all their reporting (Sky News is always right-wing and The Project is always left-wing).

My ranking of media outlets in Australia:
* Partisan left: Buzzfeed, Green Left Week, The Guardian, The Project, Vice
* Leans left: ABC News, NT News, SBS News, The Conversation
* Centre: 7 News, 9 News, 10 News, 60 Minutes, A Current Affair, Betoota Advocate (yes I’ll count it), Sunrise, Sydney Morning Herald, The West Australian
* Leans right: AFR, Courier Mail, Daily Telegraph, Herald Sun, Townsville Bulletin
* Partisan right: Sky News (Sky News Australia is much more right-wing than Sky News in the UK), The Spectator (I think The Spectator Australia is actually more right-wing than its British counterpart from what I’ve seen)

The Daily Mail (which is actually a British tabloid) and News.com.au are harder to rank since they are bullshit tabloids. Wikipedia has a ban on citing The Daily Mail, not for political reasons but because it’s just so shit. People say it’s right-wing, I say it’s sensationalised since growing up the “right-wing” locals of my country town wouldn’t have any interest in which celebrity is dating who and who got cancelled for what, they would rather hear about topics like the weather or the football or local issues, things people actually talk about (which The Daily Mail doesn’t cover, and as a self-described soccer pundit News.com.au has the worst soccer commentary ever, just clickbait rubbish that at times seems like they criticise Australian sportspeople and teams, e.g their coverage of the Matildas was quite rude). News.com.au is also a shitty news source, not just because of how they’re so left-leaning but they’re also very sensational and care about stuff I really don’t think matters much.

And if we’re doing US media outlets then ABC, CNN and NBC are to the left while Fox News and the Daily Wire are very much to the right, with Info Wars being the extreme right. If we’re doing UK media outlets then The Guardian, The Mirror and The Independent would be right-leaning while The Daily Express, The Sun, The Telegraph and The Times would be right-leaning, with BBC somewhere in the middle. In Fiji there’s a newspaper called the Fiji Sun which during the government of Frank Bainimarama was very supportive of FijiFirst (Bainimarama’s centrist liberal party) but now seems more neutral inline with other English-language outlets there like the Fiji Times and Fiji Village (media outlets are mostly in English but some articles are in Fijian or Fiji Hindi).

@Scart NewsCorp tabloids don’t talk about politics all the time though, but in saying that I never visit the Daily Mail’s website because it’s full of ads and the content is terrible. News.com.au on the other hand is also terrible (with less ads though) but is still a sensationalised piece of crap and these days half of their articles are written by ChatGPT.

@Nether Portal Betoota is just as partisan as the Guardian

I’d probably rank it like this:

Far Left: Green Left Weekly, Crikey, Buzzfeed, Junkee, Guardian (opinion)
Partisan left: Guardian (news), The Project, FriendlyJordies, Vice, Q+A, Betoota Advocate, The Chaser
Leans left: ABC News, 7:30, 4 Corners, SBS News, NT News, The Conversation, Sydney Morning Herald, The Age
Centre: Neel Kolhatkar, Drew Pavlou
Leans right: 7 News, 7 Spotlight, 9 News, 60 Minutes, The West Australian, The Australian (news), Sky News (daytime), News.com.au, Australian Financial Review, Isaac Butterfield
Partisan right: Courier Mail, Daily Telegraph, Herald Sun, The Advertiser, The Australian (opinion), Daily Mail, Rebel News
Far right: Sky News (nighttime), The Spectator, Aussie Cossack (aka Simeon Boikov)

@Scart I think it would lean a bit left but it’s satirical so it can go either ways. It tends to make fun of literally everything and everyone.

@NP It once compared Dutton supporters/No voters to domestic abusers and also implied that anyone who supported lower immigration numbers somehow contributed to the creation of the Christchurch terrorist.

And that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

The occasional time that they do take jabs at Labor, the Greens, pro-Palestine, unions etc. are inevitably met with dozens of comments that basically imply “Has Betoota been sold to MuRdOcH!!!” or something along those lines.

And most of the criticism they do make of Labor comes from their left and not their right

@Scart seems mostly reasonable, but I would argue a couple of things:

1. Isaac Butterfield is more to the centre, he’s good mates with Friendlyjordies and seems to hate on both sides. However he does engage in a lot of culture wars so maybe he’s socially more conservative but then he’s progressive on stuff such as gay marriage and cannabis legalisation too so I don’t know where I’d put him. He’s one of the hardest to classify I would say.
2. News.com.au actually supported changing the date, so I wouldn’t say it’s right-leaning.
3. I do agree that there is a big difference between Sky After Dark and Sky Before Dark as well as The Australian news vs opinion pieces.
4. I would put Rebel News as far-right. It has a counterpart in Canada with similar ideology too by the way.
5. The Sydney Morning Herald is an interesting one as it was originally more centre-right and tended to support the Coalition (it did throughout the Howard years until 2004 when they endorsed nobody and 2007 when they endorsed Labor). Since 2007, the Sydney Morning Herald has only endorsed the Coalition for two of the past five federal elections (2013 and 2016). While they did endorse the Coalition on the state level (partially courtesy of the gambling reforms since during the campaign Labor sold out to the gambling lobby, since their endorsement article praised both leaders and both parties), but after that they endorsed the Yes case, but then attacked the Coalition (except for when they called for Yasmin Catley to resign as Police Minister).
6. Is Aussie Cossack really a news source? I thought he was a stupid online guy who is Putin’s number one fan in Australia.

@Scart true, but I would say The Chaser is further to the left since I don’t know if I’ve ever seen them criticise Labor, the Greens, the teals, Extinction Rebellion, the unions, Palestine, Hamas, etc.

@NP To some extent I am blinded a bit by the Chaser’s 2000s glory days. They were more than willing to criticise Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, and attacking the former would have been highly unpopular given how popular Rudd was back in 2007-09 especially amongst young people aka their target audience.

@Scart yeah but now they just go after the Coalition. For example they made a bill asking various Coalition MPs if they supported climate action, nobody said no but then they bring up Zali Steggall’s bill. Tim Wilson, a moderate who does support climate action (he said, when asked, “yes of course I do” quite firmly), brings up why he opposed it and they just cut him off and ridiculed him. They did a bingo-style game where they accused MPs of “passing the buck”, lying, etc. As a Townsvillean your local MP Philip Thompson was in the video and asked the reporters where they were from, the reporter said Sydney and Phil then said “yeah, not Townsville” since he asked Coalition MPs, many of whom come from provincial cities or regional and rural areas, to support Zali Steggall’s climate bill. They even managed to piss Barnaby Joyce off, who is obviously one of the most polarising figures in Australian politics (everyone online hates him and inner-city lefties hate him because his personal views are more socially conservative but in the regions I’ve never heard anyone say anything bad about him, so he’s loved in the regions and hated in the city).

im tempted to back the LNP in Cook too.

Regarding the betting-lines still favouring Labor in Cairns and Cook. My theory is that punters aren’t expecting massive swings to the LNP out in the regions, especially in divisions with high proportions of Indigenous people. Cook has the highest proportion of Indigenous in the state and Labor incumbent Lui is Indigenous too. Cairns also has a big Indigenous population, perhaps making it the most Indigenous urban division.

We saw this play out in the NT election, Labor’s support remained intact in remote Indigenous divisions, particularly in ones held by Indigenous members. While their support really dropped off significantly in suburban and outer suburban areas – throughout Darwin and Palmerston.

This is also why a division like Barron River doesn’t seem to be rated fairly highly for Labor – despite their incumbency. Barron River encompasses Cairns’ outer-suburbs. And is significantly less Indigenous than Cairns and Cook (despite being sandwiched between both of them). I would love to see where betting lines position Mulgrave as it stands to get a better read of the situation.

At this point in the race, and without much tangible data to go on, the largest swings are expected to be amongst Greater Brisbane’s outer-suburban fringes and throughout South East Queensland more broadly.

Some further polling is overdue though.

I think the largest swings will be in Townsville, Wide Bay and Rockhampton, followed by Brisbane’s outer suburbs.

@SEQ Observer urban Indigenous tend to be more conservative in terms of how they vote. We can see this in Alice Springs where Namatjira now has the highest CLP vote in Greater Alice Springs despite being the most Aboriginal part of the city. Similarly Katherine which also has a high Aboriginal population stayed solidly CLP. Even Nhulunbuy had a decent CLP vote.

I’m in the Cairns electorate and will add my two cents, though this is very “vibes” based and could just be the circles I hang in.

I feel Yolonde Enstch is a poor pick and rightly or wrongly gives the impression of nepotism/grifting. Even people who generally vote LNP that I talk to describe her as “weird” or just generally have a poor impression of her. She runs multiple non-profits (her LinkedIn lists four current jobs and another she left in June, split 4:1 in favour of non-profits), some of which receive government funding per an ABC article earlier this year. She’s also on the local news every time an LNP politician is in town, politely nodding behind them, ever since she announced her candidacy in way that people start to dislike due to over exposure. I wish my job gave me the spare time to work four other jobs and run for office (not that those would be my choice).

Like I said, this is all vibes based and I’m not saying she’s actually done anything wrong, but I think she just generally rubs people the wrong way. This is entirely unscientific, but I expect her to do 1-2 points worse than “Generic Liberal”.

On a similar note, I’ll also add that choosing former mayor Terry James to run for Mulgrave seems like an odd choice, 6 months after losing the council election 43-57. Looking at the division results from the council election, the parts of Mulgrave within the CRC area map pretty much exactly to Divisions 1, 2 and 3 which voted 46-54, 39-61 and 42-58 respectively. Totaling votes they went 44-56 (6,369-8,090). I definitely could have seen them running him in 2028 or 2032, but it feels like the wrong time so close to the council election.

Cook might be determined on where the donkey vote goes since donkey voting is so common in remote communities. If a minor party finishes first (which is most likely since there are only two major parties) then while they won’t win they’ll still get an unusually high proportion of the vote (this is why the Socialist Alliance vote was so high up in the Indigenous communities in the northern remote parts (i.e the Cape and the Torres Strait Islande) of Leichhardt). Because the LNP was ahead of Labor on the ballot 39% of Socialist Alliance preferences across the electorate went to Warren Entsch even though an actual socialist would preference the Greens second and then Labor.

Also, @AA, what about Mackay, the Whitsunday Coast, Bowen and Yeppoon? I think they’ll swing hard too.

@Nether Portal I was counting Yeppoon as part of Rocky. Forgot about Mackay as well, but I think the swing will be smaller there because of the new candidate’s high profile and deep roots in the area.

I think the areas with the biggest swings, are the ones with Labor members at the moment.

Whitsundays will have a big swing against Labor, I don’t know how big the swing will be in Burdekin yet because the MEU are putting a lot of money into Anne Baker’s campaign, plus she seems fairly popular.

I reckon the electorates with the biggest swings will be: Thuringowa, Rockhampton, Keppel, Mundingburra, Townsville, Whitsunday, Barron River, Hervey Bay and Bundaberg

@AA in that order?

I didn’t even think about the order, but that would probably be it.

I agree regarding large swings in Hervey Bay and Bundaberg. I expect the Labor primary vote to be > 50% in both.

You mean LNP primary vote?

Nether.. I said they were mirror images of each other…. not the same in terms of ideology.. but similar in terms of organisational structure and fanaticism

A A,
I definitely mean Labor vote.

@watson watch So you think the Labor primary vote will be higher than 50% in Bundaberg and Hervey Bay?

Of the few remaining seats with no LNP candidate announced yet, Bulimba and Cooper are of particular note. If the polls are anything to go by then Bulimba may be within reach for them on a good night, although Di Farmer only narrowly lost in 2012 so its current margin might be deceiving. And Cooper is in that same ballpark, but perhaps they’ve written it off as a Greens gain? I’ve heard Jonty Bush is a popular local MP but I just can’t see her holding out in the current environment because there’s such little change needed on the 3CP for her to lose.

Aside from those two, they’re only missing candidates in Bundamba, Gladstone, Ipswich, Jordan, Stretton and Woodridge.

A A,
Yes. That is correct.

@A A @Nether Portal

Whitsunday will end up with about a 15 percent swing. That will include almost all of the 9.4 percent vote Jason Costigan got at the last election, plus a fairly big hit to whatever Labor candidate is eventually chosen. Amanda Camm may even pick it up without going to preferences. I think that the ALP primary will be under 30 percent. KAP haven’t announced a candidate yet and Julie Hall for PHON will be lucky to pull above 10 percent. The Greens notoriously underperform in this seat, mostly because they pick absolute dingbats who don’t understand how elections work. I’m not sure why Family First is running – if they get their deposit back I’ll be surprised. No-one else has stuck their hand up yet.

Historically the biggest swings in the South-East corner have been Springwood and Aspley. The Greens have been putting a bit of effort into Mansfield and I expect their vote to creep up over 12 percent. However the swing to the LNP will be over 10 percent, retaking the swing at the last election and building a small buffer. As I’ve mentioned before, over the past 10 years Mansfield has had major demographic changes.

@Blaine Bulimba needed a much earlier LNP candidate if it was on the target list. If the LNP runs dead it may well be picked up by The Greens but it’s a tough seat to call. If the ALP holds the seat and loses the election I can see Di Farmer resigning fairly early and bringing on a by-election. As the (former) Minister for Education and Youth Justice she’s going to be at the pointy end of questions in Parliament.

Of course all of the southside seats are going to have new boundaries before the 2028 election and it’s going to be interesting to see which one goes.

The Gold Coast Bulletin did an article about LNP Members living outside of their electorate
https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=GCWEB_MRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.goldcoastbulletin.com.au%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Fqueensland-state-election-2024-both-lnp-and-labor-candidates-living-outside-the-electorates-where-they-would-become-mps%2Fnews-story%2F2152b84465c6ab32b41d07affdb0dcb6&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium

For what it’s worth, Miles does not appear to be running a Zak Kirkup style campaign at all. He has leaned away from public messaging about saving the furniture or preventing a supermajority, and has put forth a comprehensive agenda that is his own, and he seems like he will be very busy if he gets another term.

I’m not getting QLD 2012 or NSW 2011, or even Eva Lawler vibes from Miles, I’m getting QLD 2009 and NSW 2007 vibes. I also think people are underestimating the effect of a competent Greens campaign, where Greens can pick up disgruntled Labor voters, on the ALP vs LNP 2 party preferred.

North QLD is the real challenge that might be too much for him

@John the LNP only very narrowly led two polls in the final weeks of the campaign in 2009 and they were both within the margin of error. Meanwhile in 2024 there’s been five polls since March showing an LNP TPP of 55.5-57%. I don’t think it will be a 2012-style defeat but Labor is going to lose the election by a substantial amount and it probably will be similar to the NT results at least on the TPP.

As for regional QLD, Labor is only sure to retain Gladstone. I’m a little more lenient on them than some right now and think they might still hold out in Mulgrave and Maryborough but that’s it.

@Laine i would imagine they are gonna lose every regional seat in QLD with the exception of Gladstone and maybe Cook

Laine – the NT government had an air of tiredness around them. They were on their 3rd Chief Minister after the 2nd had resigned in disgrace, and Lawler didn’t really have an agenda or put forth much of a reason to vote for her. I didn’t see the Darwin wipeout coming to be fair, but I’m not seeing it happening in Brisbane.

Thanks for the polling statistics – is Miles further behind than Scott Morrison was at his lowest before the 2019 election? Or Keating before 93?

I see Mackay, Keppel and the Townsville 3 being tough to hold but I was saying (and hearing) that in 2020.

Anyway was primarily saying that the conventional wisdom is that Miles is gone, but the campaign Labor is running doesn’t seem like a doomed government campaign, nor a campaign for sympathy votes.

New Redbridge Poll: (full figures not yet published – but this info was listed on 9 news)

2PP
ALP 45.5 (+2.5)
LNP 54.5 (-2.5)

PRIMARY
ALP 29 (+1)
LNP 42 (-5)
(Others not reported)

Comments on the poll from Kos Samaras at Redbridge:

Yes, Labor’s position is better. But largely due to a very strong position along the Brisbane river. Travel out further from that and it gets very very ugly.

Are there 2 different chaps named John commenting here?

@John Not sure about 1993 but in 2019 when we were 6 weeks out from the election (as we are now in QLD) Labor was leading most polls with only a TPP of around 51-52% (the LNP eventually won 51.9% of the vote, so not massively off).

But back in QLD 2020 Labor led in every state poll from July onwards and the LNP at their best only got 52% of the TPP in a single June poll. Labor hasn’t led a poll for the 2024 election since April 2023 and only even managed a tie last in February this year.

I’m quite sure the Townsville and Cairns seats are gone this time around though, there was a huge fuss about them in 2020 that didn’t materialize and I mostly blame sensationalist media for that, but even if the LNP underperforms expectations in October those seats are in their natural path to victory and Labor’s focus from what I’ve seen largely seems to be in Brisbane and the Gold Coast.

Anyway, bit of a long post. It’s good Miles isn’t running a Kirkup campaign because he’s not in the position to need to do that. Labor could still hold onto more than 20 seats if they manage to stave off the LNP in parts of Brisbane as opposed to the handful they won in 2012.

@Mick Quinlivan yes. One uses a capital J and the other doesn’t.

@The Banana Republic We also got a Resolve poll released today that was conducted from June to September with a sample of 939. A new high of LNP 58.5-41.5 LAB.

(Primaries LNP 42%, LAB 23%, GRN 12%, ONP 8%, KAP 1%, OTH 12%.)

Yes there are two Johns. Probably be helpful if someone was to pick a slightly more unique name.

John k and John t or similar?

Interesting to wonder where that 12% vote parked in OTH will go. Especially because GRN, KAP and ONP are already accounted for in the poll. And there isn’t really much on the ballots as of yet besides FFP and LCQ. Maybe some divisions are looking out for a community independent. But I suspect that a lot of 12% OTH will tentatively float back towards the incumbent ALP government in most divisions. One of the hints is the extremely low 23% ALP primary-vote (which I reckon probably is a bit closer to 30%).