Queensland 2024

Register of member’s’ interests is here:
https://documents.parliament.qld.gov.au/Assembly/Procedures/MembersRegister.pdf

@watson watch

None of those properties are listed as his place of residence. The properties at Elphinstone Pocket, Heatley, Lannercost and Trebonne appear to be investment properties for sugar farming. He also has 6 mortgages, despite only 4 properties being listed.

Crisafulli himself says: “My family and I moved to Hope Island from North Queensland in 2015 and love everything the Gold Coast has to offer. I never forget how warmly my family and I were embraced when we first arrived. From my cousin who helped us find our first home, to the friends we met in the local service clubs and sporting groups, our move to the Coast felt right from day one.”

When they “made the move from Townsville to Hope Island,” Crisafulli is quoted as saying, “Within a month of making the decision to relocate, we had sold our home and bought one here, traded in the ute and bought a sedan, swapped the big dog for a little dog, and enrolled the girls in school… From the moment we got here I’ve had an amazing affinity with the Gold Coast”

Ok I did some more research, he actually sold that Hope Island home in 2021, but bought a two-bedroom apartment in Brisbane CBD to live in with his wife. He apparently splits his time between a rental property on the Gold Coast, and that apartment.

A A,
If your allegation is true, I expect we will hear more about it before the election.

I don’t think we really will, the media don’t like to attack Crisafulli. The only thing I can find is an article from 2021 in The Australian that explains it.

@watson watch arent you gonna get a shock in two months

@Watson Watch how can any of the leaders you mentioned other than Crisafulli become Premier when they are former leaders? David Crisafulli will be the next Premier, even Steven Miles said that’s the most likely outcome.

Also, he doesn’t live in Kennedy. He has lived on the Gold Coast for years. He sold his houses in Townsville and the surrounding area. He did grow up in Ingham though.

@AA the media only attack people who can be attacked. Saying they don’t attack conservatives is ridiculous since they have on many occasions attacked conservatives e.g Donald Trump, Peter Dutton, Scott Morrison, etc whilst still attacking centrists and progressives. If Crisafulli was involved in a scandal they would be obliged to report on it.

@Nether Portal I never said the media doesn’t attack conservatives. I just said they don’t attack Crisafulli, whereas they attack Miles a lot. All you have to do is watch 7, 9 or sky news and you’ll see how biased some of their reporting is.

But to be fair, media outlets like the ABC and The Guardian won’t attack left-leaning politicians (they went hard on Mark Latham for those tweets he made, but were completely silent when Lidia Thorpe was filmed being racist and sexist).

The ABC has also taken gambling political donation data from The Greens, that had donations from gambling millionaire Duncan Turpie edited out. They also echo false claims by The Australia Institute that Labor gives billions in handouts for fossil fuel companies, when most of the figures actually relate to the fuel tax credit, 70% of which goes to farmers.

I am a firm believer that we need more unbiased, centrist media that don’t try and protect certain politicians (like Sky, Guardian and ABC), but also don’t have inflammatory and sensationalist stories (like 7 and 9).

The few times I’ve watched 7 or 9, the stories have followed a similar progression – stabbing, shooting, robbery, cute kittens.

Nether Portal,
Any suggestions on why Crisafulli hasn’t bothered to update his register of members’ interests?

Four years ago Deb Frecklington was going to be the next Premier and seven years ago Tim Nichols was going to be the next Premier. Despite all of the claims made in the Courier Mail, and on this site, neither of these people have become premier yet.

Watson, if 2020 was a ‘normal’ year without the effects of Covid then the LNP and Deb Frecklington could well have won as polls showed them leading prior to the virus taking hold in the country.

It was only because of Annastasia’s strong intervention that helped save Labor. Now with the return of normal times, the LNP lead in polls has only grown stronger and a landslide like result is expected.

Yoh An,
In 2020, the LNP were going to win in a landslide due to anger over Covid lockdowns. Labor did not lead in any published opinion poll until October 2020.
The Courier Mail headlines from 2020 can still be found with a google search. If you have a subscription, you will be able to read them.

There was a narrative being pushed leading up to the 2020 election that Labor was going to lose because of its COVID response. Remember how Gaven was written off as an easy LNP gain because it was assumed that Gold Coast residents were angry about border closures?

@Watson Watch are you saying that Queensland Labor actually has a chance of winning October?

Also, according to Wikipedia, the LNP only led in three polls throughout the entire campaign (30 August 2019, 7 June 2020, 30 July 2020), not including the poll from 7 February 2020 where they were tied. This is going off TPP by the way.

Deb Frecklington was never preferred Premier, in fact Annastacia Palaszczuk led her by double digits in almost every poll. Her satisfaction rate was low too, especially in comparison to Palaszczuk’s.

We all saw what happened in the Northern Territory. Labor were buried.

We all saw what happened at the local elections. Labor lost ground in key races. And we all saw what happened at the by-elections in Inala and Ipswich West. The former was marginally retained and the latter was lost, both with massive swings against Labor in once safe seats.

Agree NP, Labor has almost no chance of winning in October. The only question is how bad the scale of defeat will be, if Labor can get at least 20 seats and/or a 2PP swing under 10% against them that would be a considerable achievement for them given the poor state of opinion polling.

The insolvency of David Crisafulli’s former business Southern Edge Training has come under scrutiny ahead of this year’s state election

@Caleb Parliament House already has a chamber there that used to be the old Upper House. I’ve suggested that a workable solution to fill the membership of a restored Upper House would be putting the Mayors of Queensland’s 77 Local Governments in there. As a house of review it would provide oversight across the State and be a more equitable solution then simply concentrating everything in the South-East corner. By the way, 16 of those Councils are Indigenous Councils. The net cost would be air fares and accommodation, plus possibly an attendance fee. No need to have separate elections for the Upper House, and they’d be out of sync with the Lower House which is a good thing. But it would definitely make sense to change the election dates so we don’t have both elections in the same year!

@A A While I agree with you that the ALP will probably hold Stretton (and that’s more to do with the demographics around the Islamic Colleges in the area) I disagree with your view that the 50 cent fares are a plus for Labor. The numbers on the phone polling suggest that a substantial majority of voters see it as a cynical, short-term fix for political purposes. The phrase “trying to bribe us with our own money” pops up more times than you’d really want to see for your own initiative and it’s colouring other policy announcements.

@Daniel T I’ve got a feeling that Bulimba might be the sleeper seat of the election. While socially it would be more likely to trend Green, having your car stolen and your house broken into has a habit of changing your vote. Bulimba is ground zero for youth crime and it’s having an impact locally. It might even go Independent.

@Nether Portal Mansfield is already a write off for the ALP. The demographics of the seat have been in serious flux for the past decade but the new developments have not been kind to Labor, even after the last redistribution. Of the 36,417 residents around 15 percent are newly enrolled Chinese or Indian voters, with a substantial proportion of those Chinese voters from Taiwan and Hong Kong. Corrine is having difficulty getting volunteers out for Saturday mornings and events, other than a core group.

Remembering of course that Queensland will have a State AND Federal redistribution due in the next term of their respective governments. There’s an opportunity for the AEC to review the mess they created in the regional cities and for the ECQ to fix the absolute disaster their 2017 effort was.

@mark mark that would probably be unlawful since they are not of the same level of government and you effectively have people from local governments dictating state govt policy any upper house would require elections. i doubt anyone would stand for that even if it was legal.

in regards to bringin it back no govt is going to intentionally hamstring itself by reintroducing it or they would have done so by now over the course of the last 100 years. the only way it will come back is if there is a hung parliament and the crossbench demands it as a condition of support

@Nether Portal I agree, I’m a very active Labor member and nobody in the party thinks we’ll win the next state election.

@Mark Yore The 50c fares opinions depend on the area – somewhere like Stretton has a lot of commuters who take the bus into Brisbane CBD. Same with Logan, Ipswich and Moreton Bay (Miles’ seat of Murrumba has a lot of people who take the train to work in the CBD). The 50c fares save these people a lot of money, so I find their reactions are mostly positive. Same with people in the inner-city who take public transport to work.

I don’t know where you’re phone polling, but I find that the “bribery” idea around the 50c fares comes from people who mostly drive to work – usually wealthier people on the Gold and Sunshine Coast, or most people living in the regions.

Also, the reaction on phone polling depends on what party you’re phone polling for.

If you’re doing it for the LNP, and are telling people it’s a bribe, they’ll probably agree with you. But if you’re doing it for Labor, and telling people it will save money and reduce congestion, they’ll probably agree with you.

And in the case of Stretton, the LNP are putting very little money into campaigning – they haven’t even got a candidate yet.

Why does Labor normally does better in this area (ALP leaning) compared to similar areas in Sydney and Melbourne which would be bellwether or even Lib leaning?
Is it that the LNP does poorly among the Asian Community in QLD compared to the Libs in NSW and VIC?

*The Stretton area

Marh, I think it is because Asians in this part of Brisbane (Sunnybank/Stretton) tend to be less affluent compared to those in comparable suburbs elsewhere (e.g. Ryde for Sydney). Affluent voters particularly those who may be small business owners tend to be conservative leaning compared to those who are not.

Nether Portal,
I saw what happened in the local elections.
Fraser Coast Regional Council covers the state electorates of Hervey Bay and Maryborough. In the council election, held in March this year, the Labor Party Mayor was re-elected with 74.89% of the first preference vote.
From this result, how do you come with “I think the LNP will win this and I think the swing will be huge” for Maryborough, and “I don’t know why Labor has this seat” for Hervey Bay.

Watson, local elections are not always a good guide to predict state or federal results. The BCC elections for 2016 are a case in point, where the LNP held onto their majority and even added a seat (Northgate) but then lost ground in the subsequent state election in 2017 (losing the seats of Aspley and Mt Ommaney)

Ideally, if there is local (seat by seat) polling for the state election that would have more predictive value.

Also, the Mayor for Fraser Coast whilst being a registered Labor member technically contested as an Independent with no party label because the results page on the ECQ website doesn’t say (Labor) next to his name. This is akin to other party members who contest as unaffiliated independents, such as Frank Carbone (Fairfield).

Although it depends whether George Seymour (Fraser Coast) still retains his Labor membership, because Frank Carbone actually withdrew his ALP membership and defected when becoming an independent.

@Yoh An exactly he’s shown on the ballot as an independent. Look at Brisbane though.

Anyway, in the by-elections Labor had double digit swings against them and in the Territory the CLP just won in a landslide, yet you keep ignoring that.

@Mark Yore agree about Mansfield, suburbs like Rochedale have growing housing estates and are LNP-voting.

@Marh the area is more working-class, but still the LNP often does well in Sunnybank which is the most Chinese suburb in Queensland. The LNP does well in Southport and Surfers Paradise which have large Chinese and Japanese communities.

Yoh An,
Good to see that you agree with my view.
It was Nether Portal who claimed that local government elections results somehow translated into state election results.

It is widely known that the Mayor of Fraser Coast is an active member of the Labor Party. The local paper often tips him as being a candidate for either state or federal parliament.

As to your dodgy mayor reference, I suspect you were thinking of his predecessor.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-16/fraser-coast-mayor-chris-loft-sacked-qld/9453392
As far as I am aware, Chris Loft was never a member of the Labor Party, and therefore never expelled from that Party.

This election will have federal implications, but how bad would the defeat have to be for them to listen?

Albo hasn’t even acknowledged the NT election or congratulated Lia Finocchiaro, Why is this?? Is it because he knows he is partly responsible for the incidents in Alice Springs that lead to lockdowns, and his failed “Voice to parliament”?

Will he acknowledge QLD when they vote overwhelmingly to reject Labor? Gillard did when those elections happened.

Federal government’s can no longer brush off losing state elections because usually the party in power federally start losing state elections, When Rudd became PM, every state and territory had Labor governments, by the end if his time as PM in 2013, Labor only had SA, TAS and the ACT (losing Tasmania in March and almost losing SA the same day)

Labor quickly grabbed back many states and territories they lost under Rudd/Gillard during the 2014-2022 period

Not saying the LNP would’ve lost if Morrison was still PM, but it would’ve been a tight election, most likely a hung parliament.

@Daniel T I did notice that Albo hasn’t congratulated her yet. Have any state Premiers even congratulated her yet?

@Daniel t doubt the result would have been different under morrison as the current state of affairs in the Nt are a result of Albo becoming PM winding back alcojol bans and cashless weflare card and the territories mismanagement of the crime waves spreading across the NT as well their poor financial problems

@Nether Portal @Bird of Paradox “the majority of people live outside of the capital city”
No, the vast majority of Queenslanders live within Greater SEQ, the area covered by the current Shaping SEQ planning policy. The mid-point for Queensland’s 93 state seats, with 42 electorates north of it and 42 south, is Ferny Grove. You don’t even get out of Brisbane.

@john . You’d have to change one State regulation that was introduced by the Goss government that doesn’t allow Councillors to hold State seats. Prior to that a number of Mayors and Councillors were also State members, including Mayor Clive Berghofer in Toowoomba and Councillor John Goleby in Redlands. In fact you’d only have to restrict holding a state position to the Lower House only.

@Nether Portal re Mansfield Back in 1995 the electorate was still the buckle in the bible belt. If you check the last census data Mansfield is now only about 1 or 2 percent out of kilter with the state average on religious beliefs. Rochedale is one example, but there is also a very significant influx of Chinese Australians into Wishart and a significant Indian Australian grouping in Mackenzie. A lot of that has happened in the past 5 years.

@Yoh An “Asians in this part of Brisbane (Sunnybank/Stretton) tend to be less affluent compared to those in comparable suburbs elsewhere” 🙂 There’s a phrase the local real estate agents use for Chinese (including mainland Chinese) investors and buyers – “under the wings of the golden dragon”. It’s basically an area centred on Sunnybank, bounded by Calamvale, Sunnybank Hills, Robertson (and Griffith Uni), Macgregor, Eight Mile Plains, Wishart, Mackenzie and Rochedale. There is a LOT of money in that relatively small area, with one house at Robertson going for $21 million last year. Also the interesting thing about Chinese Australian (excluding Hong Kong and Taiwan) voters and organisations is that they tend to be more transactional than ideological. What they do want is recognition and clout, which is why they’re more likely to support sitting Members.

@A A I got roped in to do baseline polling for name ID after a few of the LNP candidates were preselected. When you do baseline it’s important to get issue and voting intention from a clean slate, so no, you don’t get to ask leading questions. Even the comments on some of the ALP Facebook pages are interesting – not at the 2012 baseball bat levels but surely enough to worry them. It’s also curious how much curation is going on at the candidate level just going by the number of comments that are being deleted.

About the 50 cent fares – the greatest support for them came from the inner-city seats, which either have free or very cheap public fares already. Where the feeling was most negative was in the regional seats, most of which don’t have Translink and therefore aren’t getting the discount.

Here’s an example of the disparity (one way, longest route) – Brisbane Ferry service 50 cents for 14.3 km; Southern Moreton Bay Island Ferry 50 cents for 16.7 km; Cruise Whitsundays (Shute Harbour to Hamilton Island) $65.00 for 19 km. Even for the areas that are covered under Translink, in a lot of cases it just highlights how limited the services are.

@Mark Yore: 2021 Census data shows the majorty of Queenslanders do live outside of Greater Brisbane. As of the 2021 Census, the population of Greater Brisbane was 2,526,238, and the population of Queensland was 5,156,138, which means only 49% of Queenslanders live in Greater Brisbane. And SEQ is much bigger than Brisbane. SEQ, as defined in the current Shaping SEQ planning policy, includes Sunshine Coast, Brisbane, Gold Coast and surrounding areas.

Could the Greens get a boost in the city seats due to recent record breaking temperatures for winter? They could campaign hard on climate, Apparently it is getting to 36 DEGREES today in Brisbane, Exactly why I moved, It is too hot to live in Brisbane and many feel the same way. While records will be broken regardless, climate is contributing to more frequent records being broken, 36 degrees for winter is outrageous

@daniel climate change has absolutely nothing to do with it being 36 degrees, all weather patterns happen in a cycle

@mark im not talking about regulations not allowing them to hold state seats im saying you cant just appoint people to parliament they need to be elected. this isnt the house of lords

Agree John, it’s not a good look to have people serving in dual roles as there could be conflict of interest with mayors only supporting legislation that favours their area.

@yoh an not only that but appointing people to be law makers because they hold a certain office isnt democracy

@Daniel T

The QLD Labor government has been very progressive on climate action. I think people also understand that Queensland is a very small contributor of carbon emissions when compared to other countries across the world, so The Greens winning a few inner-city seats is unlikely to stop climate change.

The Greens will win a couple of seats I think, but it won’t be the same as federally. They flopped at the local elections in Brisbane.

*the seats will overlap with the federal Greend seats but not all the seats overlapping with them will be won by the Greens

If by “flopped at the local elections in Brisbane” you mean the Greens got their best Brisbane result in history, then yes.

@Hugo based on federal results I would’ve expected them to win other wards like Central. They retained The Gabba obviously but the only ward they gained was Paddington.

Yes it was their best Brisbane result in history but they failed to win enough wards for it to be considered a “Greenslide” as the Greens would call it.

@Daniel T The fact that there were so many extreme weather events during ScoMo’s term of govt (including multiple set of floods within his final few months) played a big role in ensuring his defeat

@Hugo – To an extent, you are right: the Greens did have their best BCC result in history, but @NP is also right to an extent, as the Greens touted their chances of winning up to 10 wards on BCC (according to Jonathan Sriranganathan, LM Candidate), which obviously did not happen, and they only reached about 20% of that goal.

@Scart yes, but that was because the L/NP had weak climate policies, and had many MPs denying that climate change existed.