Queensland 2024

It’ll be funny if Queensland ends up like the NT where all the working-class seats swung hugely against Labor.

@A A I agree that QLD will be the opposite of the NT, in that Labor will get absolutely hammered in the bush but probably hold on better than many expect in Brisbane. The TPP certainly won’t be 62 LNP like it was with Newman, I think it’ll be 58-55 LNP.

Also, did anyone else see the announcement from Crisafulli that they will be scrapping full preferential voting? Shameless manipulation of the voting system to benefit themselves. That’ll be another ~2% on the TPP Labor need to regain office.

@The Banana Republic it could still help Labor in some working-class industrial areas with high One Nation votes. However, in the city it’ll help the LNP. Queensland is one of two states that are decentralised, i.e the majority of people live outside of the capital city (the other being Tasmania).

Nether Portal, by your own words:

“in the city it’ll help the LNP.”

“the majority of people live outside of the capital city”

OPV is a net negative for the LNP anywhere One Nation / KAP etc outpoll the Greens, which is a fair bit of Qld (even outer suburban Brisbane). Labor hanging onto Mulgrave in 2012 with a third of the vote is a great example – under CPV that wouldn’t even have been close. In the state that tends to have the highest right-wing minor party vote in Australia, it’s a bad idea for them.

@The Banana Republic yes I saw that a couple of months ago and that should be another reason not to vote LNP

@Bird of Paradox it’ll be to help them hold onto seats like Clayfield and potentially win seats like Bulimba and Noosa.

@caleb it’s not like Labor haven’t used it to their advantage when libs and nats were separate they introduced opv to benefit themselves. And later after greens started becoming a threat to them they changed it back to fpv

@John exactly. The voting system doesn’t change anything.

I am not commenting on who is morally right or wrong about OPV as opposed to CPV. Sometimes it helps LNP sometimes Labor. @BOP is correct in much of regional QLD it helps LNP where there is a strong ONP/KAP vote for example if we still had OPV, Labor will have a much easier time to hold on to Mackay, Rockhamption but the LNP stands a better chance in Greenslopes, Miller etc. If we had OPV at a federal level, then Higgins would be retained by Libs but Hunter would not be in play at all.

@nimalan ultimately labor is responsible because they are the ones who voted the upper house out of existence meaning whoever is in govt can just do whatever they want. if the upper house was stil there changing the preferentialsystem would be a lot harder

with OPV federally Gilmore, Lyons, Bennelong, Higgins, Robertson, Tangey, Boothby, Ryan, Brisbane, Curtin, Mackellar, Goldstein, North Sydney, Kooyong, Wentworth would all still be in liberal hands. and we woud liklely have a liberal govt instead of labor

Luckily the Federal Elections will stay Full Preferential as the bill to change the electoral system will be dead in the water In senate cause no one has had a majority since 2004.

@John having OPV doesn’t mean voters can’t chose to preference other candidates too. Therefore some of those seats would still have gone to Labor.

Opv benefits the party who polls the most votes. The number of exhausted votes will increase. Eg.. in East Hills nsw. Libs outpolled Labor on primary votes by 2%.. 12% went to parties and candidates of the left who would have preferenced labor. But since the vaste majority did not extend a preference past 1… the liberal candidate won. Obviously the Queensland lnp thinks they will outpoll Labor on.
Ongoing basis. BUT be careful what you wish for. In the future the reverse may well be the case. The better way to go is direct voters to number all squares and have a savings provision.so that a vote remains formal to.the extent a voters’ intention can be identified

The example I referred to occurred in the 2019 state election

The voting system should not be” adjusted” to benefit one party or another. This is akin to a gerrymander. Which qld only got rid of post 1989

Theodore abolishing the qld upper house was the best thing ever

@john I don’t think you are completely right.. but if so opv would have been a perversion of democracy

The Only Way for Queensland not to revert back to OPV is to enshrine Full Preferential voting and make it impossible to repeal, as for the upper house, I think it’s far too late to reintroduce it as there will need to be an upper house building. The alternative would be to have a mixed-member parliament like what New Zealand has by reintroducing multi-member
Seats to prevent supermajorities from forming. Examples would include Ipswich (4 members), Townsville (4 Members) & Toowoomba (4)

I would like to have the option of not numbering a box. In Chisholm in 2019 we had two awful Liberal and Labor candidates. One very right wing and the other was a seat shopper who had nothing to offer. It was a real holding the nose moment deciding whifh had to go higher. The senate has OPV – why not the reps?

@Caleb speaking of that, would anyone be interested in me making a map for a potential multi-member seat House?

Also, MMP in NZ isn’t multi-member seats. It’s single-member seats (general electorates and Māori electorates) and then some list members from those seats. There’s an electorate vote and a party vote. MPs are elected from the electorate vote and list MPs are elected from the party vote. Not all seats have list MPs though, but every seat has an actual MP.

@Nether Portal, I would

@Caleb alright I’ll have a look at it tomorrow or the next day. Still gotta finish the Republic vs Voice map.

Crissafuli has commited to OPV after the election.

@Mick not really abolishing the upper house basically means the govt rules with an iron fist and there is no checks and balances

@NP yes but teh libs would also be able to get extra votes. but on primary votes the libs would have won those seats and if you go back even further they would have held seats like richmond.

labor are a victim of their own legislation had they not moved to introduce 4 year terms they could have gone to and probably won an election in early 2023

The Labor government’s introduction of 50-cent fares on all public transport across Queensland has notably increased ridership, bringing numbers back to pre-pandemic levels. The Gold Coast, in particular, has seen the largest uptake in public transport use. With the G:link tram predominantly experiencing that boost in passenger numbers.

It appears that from the outset, Labor strategically targeted the Gold Coast with this fare reduction trial, possibly anticipating the need to address a potential swing against them. Key divisions such as Theodore, Coomera, Currumbin, Bonney and Burleigh were likely identified as potential prospects, with Gaven being crucial for Labor to retain.

Labor’s initial strategy seemed aimed at gaining ground on the Gold Coast to balance anticipated losses in regional Queensland. However, with the current political climate showing a potential 10% swing against them, the 50-cent fare initiative might serve more as a defensive measure to mitigate the swing in Gaven and assist Scanlon in retaining her seat, rather than as a tool for broader electoral gains.

i imagine some of the out of work state mps will be jockying for the federal seat selection after oct

@John some of the younger MPs will be for sure.

Yvette Dath should run for Petrie again, she wouldn’t win unfortunately but it could make the seat more marginal or resist any swing, I would say it’s worth it to give the LNP a run for their money.

If Grace Grace losses to the Greens she could replace Madonna Jarrett last minute via federal intervention. Grace would be a much better candidate although Grace Jones would be even better but she could run for Ryan.

Di Farmer is unlikely to lose her seat as it barely went LNP in 2012 and on the night it looked as if she barely held on, if she does lose this time however, she could run against Mad Max in Griffith.

Melissa McMahon could run against LNP candidates Husband and MP Bert Van Manen in Forde and give him a sweat but he would hold on with minimal swing.

The Townsville MP’s would be wasting their time in Herbert, that is a safe LNP seat unlike the others, and despite how appalling Keith Pitt is in Hinkler, Maryborough MP would be wasting his time as well I’m afraid.

Same goes with Fairfax and Fisher with the 2 Labor state MP’s overlapping those seats.

Same goes with Scalon in Gaven running for Wright or Fadden.

I could go on but you get the picture, the goal isn’t to win but to take the enemies/opponents resources away to help you in other seats.

@daniel t labor will be spending all their resources to hold moreton lilley and blair at this stage. and they face serious challenges in nsw and wa as well. theyve all but lost lyons lingiari gilmore and bennelong before it even starts

@Daniel T this is a good map idea.

I don’t rate any of those MP’s chances but some should give it a go, e.g Yvette D’Ath in Petrie (again), though Luke Howarth will
be quite hard to beat as he has a big political and non-political social media (he goes to a lot of Dolphins home games in Redcliffe) presence and is quite active in his electorate.

Perhaps if Duncan Pegg loses Stretton (which I think he will) then he could go after Moreton federally assuming Graham Perrett is forced out by gender quotas.

@Caleb the upper house chamber in Queensland still exists, and is used for dinners and special events.

@Nether Portal I’d love to see a map

Federally I predict the LNP to gain Blair and no other changes.

@nther portal graham perrett has already announced hes retiring so hes been forced out and julie-ann campbell is expected to get preslected as shes a woamn and duncan pegg is not

@John oops yeah my bad I should’ve rethought my comment when mentioning quotas.

@NP i expect the lnp to marginalise the remaining Labor seats forcing labor todefend them in 2028

heres the article he announced his retirement last thursday

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/veteran-qld-mp-to-retire-after-being-told-now-s-the-time-20240822-p5k4k5

Corrine McMillan (the Labor MP for Mansfield) could run for Bonner but she’d likely lose given Mansfield is one of those seats I’d be writing off for Labor. It’s traditionally a blue seat and the LNP is gonna win big and it’s marginal so she would still be kinda wasting her time.

@Np labor will not win any queensland seats at this election. they will be lucky to win any seats anywhere in the country. i suspect labor will likely lose blair at this election if not it will definitely be lost in 2028 due to a combination of declining vote, redistribution and/or neumann being forced out. i think anika wells will lose lilley in 2028 as well. and i wouldnt be surprised is their other remaining seats come under serious threat too

@Nether Portal
Duncan Pegg died in 2021. James Martin replaced him in the Stretton by-election.

@Nether Portal Duncan Pegg passed away in 2021. I assume you’re talking about James Martin.

Crisafulli could run for Kennedy. He lives in the Division and the LNP hasn’t pre-selected a candidate yet.

@watson Crisafulli is about to be premier maybe after hes done with that in like 2032

Also, James Martin is not losing Stretton. It is very safe for state Labor and there isn’t even an LNP candidate yet (they aren’t trying). Emily Kim’s recent election shows how that area won’t vote LNP with a strong local Labor candidate in play, even though the LNP had swings towards them almost everywhere else. James Martin has very strong ties with multicultural community organisations there too. People in Stretton are big fans of the 50c fares and $1000 energy rebate – and I also suspect Dutton’s character will put people in those communities off the LNP.

Stretton doesn’t overlap with much of Moreton too. It overlaps mostly with Rankin.

Also, James Martin is from the Unity Faction, and the left won’t let him run in Moreton. People making these sort of predictions often forget how strong the factional politics are in Labor.

@watson watch Crisafulli lives nowhere near Kennedy. He lives in Hope Island on the Gold Coast. Plus he’s going to be premier.

Agree AA and John, Crisafulli has moved into the Gold Coast to reside in the district he currently represents (Broadwater). It is true he was born in the outer parts of Townsville and spent most of his time there (hence representing Mundingburra from 2012-2015).

i should say 2036

based on the swings that have happened at recent elections id say the lnp could at least be competitive in rankin moreton and lilley. i think oxley is the only real safe qld seat for labor

A A,
The Queensland Parliament “register of members’ interests” is a publicly viewable document. The most recent update was published on 22 August 2024.
David Crisafulli doesn’t list any property owned on Hope Island, or anywhere else on the Gold Coast.
He has properties at Elphinstone Pocket, Trebonne and Lannercost, all of which are in the state electorate of Hinchinbrook and the Division of Kennedy.
He also has a property at Heatley, which is in the state electorate of Thuringowa and the Division of Herbert.

There are many LNP / Coalition leaders who are going to Premier: – Horan, Springborg, Seeney, Langbroek, Nichols, Frecklington, and now Crisafulli. IMHO, Springborg is still more likely to become Premier than Crisafulli.