Queensland 2024

These are my predictions.

LNP: Gregory, Warrego, Barron River, Townsville, Mundingburra, Thrungowa, Burdekin, Whitsunday, Mirani, Burnett, Bundaberg, Callide, Hervey Bay, Nanango, Condamine, Southern Downs, Scenic Rim, Gympie, Nicklin, Ninderry, Maroochydore, Buderim, Kawana, Glass House, Pumicestone, Pine Rivers, Redcliffe, Clearfield, Toowoomba North, Toowoomba South, Lockyer, Moggill, Oodgeroo, Mansfield, Redlands, Theodore, Broadwater, Bonney, Southport, Surfers Paradise, Mudgeeraba, Mermaid Beach, Burleigh, Currumbin

ALP: Morayfield, Kurwongbah, Sandgate, Cooper, Lytton, McDonnell, Bulimba, Greenslopes, Miller, Toohey, Bundamba, Inala, Algester, Tretton, Jordan, Woodridge, Macalister, Logan

GRN: Maiwar

KAP: Traeger, Hinchinbrook, Hill

Unsure: Cook, Cairns, Mulgrave (lean ALP), Mackay, Keppel (lean ONP), Rockhampton (IND vs LNP), Maryborough (ALP vs ONP), Noosa (lean IND), Caloundra (lean LNP), Bancroft, Murrumba (lean ALP), Stafford (lean ALP), Ipswich West, South Brisbane (lean GRN), Capalaba, Mount Ommaney (lean ALP), Springwood, Coomera, Gaven, Ipswich (lean ALP)

Forgot Ferny Grove and Waterford for some reason – both ALP retain

@AA Cooper and Macalister will go Greens, Cairns, Maryborough and Mulgrave will go LNP and based on council results Lytton should go to the LNP too. Keppel will go to the LNP too but One Nation could finish second.

@Nether Portal McConnel.* Labor will probably lose Macalister though as well, just to the LNP instead of the Greens.

Cooper has no LNP candidate, they’ll run a dead campaign, so I really doubt that the LNP will beat Labor to the 2 party count. If Labor stays in the 2pp, then Labor holds. People have been saying the Greens will win Mcconnel for many elections, but it never happens. And I doubt it will happen until Grace Grace retires. Her name recognition is really strong, which matters in an electorate with lots of apartments that can’t be letterboxed/doorknocked.

I have doubts about the LNP in Maryborough, because the LNP seem to be running a dead campaign and One Nation has come out strong. It’s a seat where people feel let down by Labor, but value Australian manufacturing, so are wary of the LNP (who sent train manufacturing to India). This leaves One Nation as a “protest vote”. They almost won it in 2017.

The results in Wynnum Manly ward came because the long term councillor retired, and the new councillor was a parachute. Joan Pease has a profile in the Lytton electorate and I think she will hold on.

I think Keppel leans One Nation because of Ashby’s high profile and the ridiculous amount of money being pumped into his campaign. But that one’s a bit of a toss-up.

@Nether Portal surely you mean Macalister will go LNP right?

@Nether Portal @Scart you guys mean Mcconnell??

Whoops misread your comment Scart.

Onp will.win no seats.. they dumped their only sitting mp….why? To gain lnp preferences? Keppel will not go to Ashby a lot of noise does not make a win.. he has never contested a seat in parliament before.. a liberal win is more likely than a onp win. Maryborough involves what personal vote Mr Saunders has.look at results 2015 to 2020 in terms of primary votes…..doubt onp will win here….

@Scart yes sorry I mistook it for McConnell.

@AA McConnell will go Greens.

@ A A here my assesment of your predictions. cooper and mcconnell will be a likely green gain due to labor being up the creek. id put bluminba in the unsure column. Macallister should be a lnp gain. cook could be a three way race between lnp, kap and labor but i think it will be a labor loss to either. cairns mulgrave mackay will be lost to lnp. Keppel is a toss up between lnp and onp but i think lnp will win. rockhampton and maryborough will be lnp gains noosa will be ind retain. coloundra and murrumba wil be lnp gains and bancroft an alp retain. stafford likely alp retain ipswich west tossup due to no sitting member and south brisbane easy greens retain no one else is even in that race they will increase their margin. springwood and capabala will be lnp gains mount ommaney is a labor retain. coomera is an easy lnp retain and gaven lnp gain with ipswich staying alp

@NP keppel onp wont finish seconf to the lnp. labor would have to lose over 13% of its primary at least to drop out of 2pp or 2cp. green preferences will ensure they make the 2pp or 2cp. i dont think ashby can topple the lnp out of the 2pp. but i wont write him off. labor will lose the seat regradless

ferny grove is a tossup but waterford should stay alp althoguh shell eed green preferences to win and the seat will be marginal

Musgrave gets a better alp vote than the other Cairns based seats. Maryborough depends on the extent of the swing and Mr Saunder’s personal vote
Llyton is a traditional alp seat based in the inner city .think was the seat of Tom Burns a previous deputy leader. I would also look at the seats Labor retained in 2012 . There is a suggestion that the swing now is less severe than 2012

@Mick Quinlivan the swing from the ALP to LNP in the regions will probably be similar to 2012, but the swing in SEQ seats will not be as strong.

@Mick Quinlivan similar to Bruce Saunders in Maryborough, Curtis Pitt has a personal vote in Mulgrave. Mulgrave also includes the entire Aboriginal Shire of Yarrabah which is majority Aboriginal.

Federal results for Yarrabah (Kennedy):

Primaries:
* KAP (Bob Katter): 58.3% (+24.8%)
* Labor (Jason Brandon): 33.9% (–20.7%)
* LNP (Bryce MacDonald): 3.2% (+0.2%)
* UAP (Peter Campion): 2.1% (–0.3%)
* Greens (Jennifer Cox): 1.7% (–3.6%)
* Independent (Jen Sackley): 1.0% (+1.0%)

TCP:
* KAP (Bob Katter): 89.4% (+4.9%)
* LNP (Bryce MacDonald): 10.6% (–4.9%)

Nether Portal,
I suspect you will find that trend repeated for most seats in Queensland.
Labor has only won the 2pp in Queensland at three federal elections in the last 75 years (1961, 1990, and 2007).
On a state level, Labor has won 10 out of the 11 most recent state elections.

The point I was trying to make was the results are different when you have mps with personal votes in excess of 10%

@Watson Watch seats like Townsville aren’t Labor seats because of the sitting MPs since we know well they’ll be losing in October:

@Mick I agree that personal votes over 10% are quite significant as it means that member has built up not just a profile in an area their party wouldn’t normally do that well in or are swing areas but they’ve built so much of a local profile that they manage to win the support and respect of locals who may have never voted for their party. Good examples include Andrew Constance in Bega (a swing seat) and Janelle Saffin in Lismore (a seat the Nationals usually win but Labor does okay in because of hippie/Greens preferences).

In other countries it’s similar. In the US the state of Alaska voted for Trump but is represented in Congress by Democrat Mary Peltola. Similarly, Kentucky voted for Trump but has a Democratic Governor (Andy Beshear) while Vermont had the highest vote for Biden outside Washington DC at the 2020 presidential election and elected Bernie Sanders to the Senate but has a Republican Governor (Phil Scott) who is very popular because of his moderate views and personal appeal.

Nether Portal,
The Queensland Parliament website lists the Member for Townsville as Scott Stewart (ALP).

Someone under the name LCQ Party just deleted the entire candidate list on the wiki page, whose summary just says candidate was in the wrong electorate.

@Watson Watch I know he’s the MP for Townsville. Nowhere there suggests I didn’t say that.

Anyway, Steven Miles has just made disgusting comments. He claimed that the LNP member for Kawana, Deputy Opposition Leader Jarrod Bleijie, would potentially like to see construction workers die. These comments are outrageous and they will hurt Miles.

Stephen miles problem passed himself last night watching the drubbing in the nt

@John I think while the QLD election will result in a Labor wipeout, it will be different to the NT.

Firstly, the NT ALP has tried to fight the CLP on crime and shift more to the right (increasing police numbers an backing gas projects). However, Steven Miles has been pushing a progressive agenda focused on the cost-of-living (50c public transport, energy rebates, renewable energy and taxing mining companies). This will mean that there won’t be massive swings from Labor to The Greens in Queensland (seats such as Miller, Greenslopes, Cooper, McConnell and Bulimba), as seen in the NT last night. I live in Brisbane’s inner city, and most people I speak to are happy with Steven Miles’ progressive agenda. This means there isn’t that frustration with Labor that causes The Greens to get votes.

Also, The Greens picked up lots of votes in Braitling as a protest vote, partially because the NT lacks minor parties – however Queensland has parties like the KAP and ONP that already pick up the protest vote in regional centres.

That goes to my second point – Labor held on in the bush, and was punished in the cities and suburbs. The QLD election will be the opposite, where Labor will be punished in the regions (Rockhampton, Keppel, Mackay, Cairns) and will likely hold on to a fair few seats in the outer suburbs (Macalister, Waterford, Kurwongbah, Ipswich, Jordan, Morayfield, Algester, Stretton). The LNP doesn’t have candidates for most of those electorates (excluding Macalister and Kurwongbah), and are putting most of their resources into winning regional seats. And those outer suburban areas are generally still happy with Labor’s performance, especially around cost of living measures.

@AA Cook will be a seat to watch. I wonder if there’ll be low turnout there too. If there is then there needs to be a Royal Commission or some sort of investigation into Indigenous voter turnout, in fact there probably already should be.

The easiest way around this is to advertise actually voting more and stressing that it’s compulsory to vote in Australia, encourage people to vote, more info from electoral commissions, easily understandable voting info (e.g HTV cards), etc. Why not translate signage and electoral material, provide more translated online and/or put voting ads on TV in Indigenous languages? Schools should teach people how to vote so when they get older they know how to vote.

Anyway, here’s my big question:

We saw what happened in the NT. Most people predicted a tight race with the CLP just getting over the line. Instead they won a landslide.

Most people are predicting a landslide in Queensland. What could happen? Could there be swings as big or even bigger as the +26.5% swing we saw in Wanguri and similar swings in other seats?

What implications could this have for the other upcoming elections in the ACT (just before the Queensland election in October) and WA (in 2025), as well as of course the upcoming federal election?

I was relatively surprised to see Greens do as well as they did in some of the NT divisions in Darwin like Nightcliff and Fannie Bay. This will have me keeping an eye on the divisions of Cairns and Barron River. Both could primed for a surge of Greens first preferences if Labor support is especially deflated. Both Darwin and Cairns have very similar characteristics including size, demographics, workforce, climate, etc.

You could say Cairns has far more in common with Darwin than Brisbane.

The thing that benefited the Greens in the NT election is the small division size. This meant that divisions like Fannie Bay were small enough to only encompass some of the most favourable urban territory for the Greens. This compliments their campaign strategy of micro-targeting a few focus divisions they have identified of having specific characteristics they know work for them.

The problem for the Greens in the Queensland context will be the much larger division sizes. This means that their most favourable geography will be offset and moderated by a broader mix of neighbourhoods and suburbs.

Based on the NT result, I do see a bigger swing (landslide/wave like result) for Queensland where any Labor seat with sub 10% margin is effectively written off and those up to 20% will all be at risk. Pretty much like 2012, although I see Labor ending up with at least 10 seats this time round (up from the 7 won in 2012).

WA will also see a big swing, but maybe not enough to put the Liberals in office. ACT is a different ball game because of the demographics, Labor could lose support to ‘teal’ like independents who could then back the Liberals under a minority government, but the Liberals will not be able to govern in their own right.

@SEQ Observer what seats do you think the Greens will come first or second in Queensland?

@Yoh A yeah I agree I don’t think the Liberals will get an outright majority in the ACT or win in WA but they should still all swing. Queensland should have a big swing.

Looking at last nights results in the Territory gave us a bit of a glimpse into the landslide expected in Queensland. Now some questions (I’ll probably be asking these again closer to the election):

1. Type of government formed (minority, coalition, majority, supermajority)?
2. Crossbench seats?
3. Crossbench parties?
4. Seats where an independent or minor party finishes second?
5. Will Premier Steven Miles lose his seat?
6. Most marginal seat for each party after the election?
7. Safest seat for each party after the election?

Oh and 8. Who’ll be the next Labor leader?

@Yoh An I think Labor will have around 15-20 seats left. Instead of a uniform swing away from Labor, as happened in 2012, it will be a very uneven swing, pronounced in the regions, and less pronounced in the suburbs and city.

@I don’t think The Greens will do well in Cairns. As I said before, QLD Labor is a lot more progressive than NT Labor – and that swing in Fannie Bay and Nightcliff was a punishment for NT Labor not being progressive enough, and supporting gas projects. QLD Labor has a progressive tax regime and strong renewable energy investment, so this factor is just not there.

Also, as far as I know, the Cairns greens don’t have many resources, and won’t try nearly as hard as the NT Greens did in Fannie Bay. The Greens are focusing squarely on Brisbane seats at this election.

The other thing is that the “protest vote” in QLD goes to the Greens, One Nation and The KAP. In NT, there aren’t really any minor parties, so the protest vote mostly goes to The Greens in seats like Braitling and Nightcliff.

I will say, Barron River has a strong green vote in some towns (Kuranda, Machans Beach), but not enough to beat Labor. The LNP will get Barron River at the next election, Bree James has been campaigning very hard with a strong social media presence.

1. Majority LNP government

2. Traeger, Hinchinbrook, Hill, Noosa, Maiwar, South Brisbane are certainties. Rockhampton, Keppel, Mirani and Maryborough are possibilities.

3.

Certainties: Traeger, Hinchinbrook, Hill – KAP. South Brisbane, Maiwar – GRN. Noosa – IND.

Possibilities: Rockhampton – IND. Mirani – IND/KAP (if Andrew joins). Keppel, Maryborough – ONP.

4. Just a bunch of possibilities – Cooper, McConnel, Keppel, Mirani, Rockhampton, Maryborough

5. No

6.

LNP – Clayfield
ALP – not sure, probably Cook, Murrumba, Mulgrave or Macalister

7.

LNP – Warrego
ALP – Woodridge

@AA wait, so you think the LNP will gain seats with higher margins than Clayfield and that Clayfield basically won’t swing at all?

Also, don’t you think any of those inner Brisbane seats will go to the Greens?

@Nether Portal –

I believe that there won’t be much of a swing to the LNP in inner-city seats like Clayfield, Greenslopes, Miller or Cooper. Mostly because the Miles Labor Government has been progressive, while the LNP has been focused on a “tough-on-crime” approach (which is generally disliked by people in the city). Hence, Clayfield will stay marginal.

The Greens won’t gain anything else. I know Mcconnel and Cooper very well. People seem to like Steven Miles’s progressive agenda (50c fares, renewable energy, social housing, abortion rights, taxing mining companies), so there’s not really a mood for change in those seats.

McConnell won’t flip Green until Grace retires, she’s got such a strong local name recognition, and the amount of apartments and units makes it impossible for anyone to doorknock or letterbox the entire area. So there aren’t really ways for an opposing candidate to introduce themselves to the community. Hence, Grace’s name recognition will keep McConnel red.

I am in Cooper. Jonty Bush is an extremely popular local MP, and has won over a lot of LNP and Green voters because of her strong local profile and advocacy. She is very progressive and has been fighting within the Labor party for women’s rights, social justice and environmental issues, which the electorate is passionate about. She also has a strong local profile and has deep connections with community organisations and groups. Jonty’s background as a criminologist and victim of crime also helps voters affected/concerned by crime.

Meanwhile, Greens candidate Katinka isn’t as connected to the community, and only shows up to events for a photo opportunities. With the LNP running dead in Cooper, it will be very hard for it to be an LNP vs Greens contest, and Jonty will hold on, either on Greens preferences (vs LNP) or LNP preferences (vs GRN).

Also, the MPs in Miller, Bulimba and Greenslopes are extremely popular, and none of those seats will flip green until the respective MPs retire.

Miles will lose Murrumba

1. Majority LNP government
2. Same as now but mcconnel and Cooper.
3. KAP and GRN.
4. Can’t be bothered
5. Yes
6. Murrumba for LNP, Mount omanney for Labor
7. Warrego or Broadwater for LNP, Woodridge for Labor
8. Dick or Fentiman

Also

8. Dick or Fentiman – depends on whether the left or right faction have power. If it’s a total wipeout, it’ll be Dick, as the right control most of the safer seats. If Labor doesn’t do too badly on seats around 10-15% margin, then it’ll be Fentiman, as these seats have more left and Old Guard MPs.

I imagine it’ll be dick since the left is largely responsible for their problems. In regards to 50c fares I think the lnp should continue it as a cost of living measure but something more sensible like $2.50

@Yoh An, the characteristics of the NT divisions that seemed to have swung the hardest against Labor were the outer-suburbs. In this situation it was Palmerston and Darwin’s North-West fringes.

The equivalent areas of Queensland would be parts of Logan, Ipswich and Moreton Bay around Brisbane’s fringes. I expect potential swings of 10%+ in divisions like Logan, Ipswich, Macalister, Jordan, Bancroft, Morayfield and Kurwongbah. Similar swings to what we already saw at the Ipswich West by-election. Some of these will end up in play but some have huge insurmountable margins at the same time.

Murrumba matches these characteristics too but I think that Miles as the high-profile incumbent premier will help Labor to soften the swing in this division, making it nail-bitingly close.

I can foresee Labor’s strategy being the defence of some of their key talent and regions in divisions with current margins of around 10%. Scanlon in Gaven comes to mind. Holding Gaven gives Labor pathways via the Gold Coast in the future. Labor will also be trying to cling on to divisions where possible throughout regional Queensland.

I think that Miles progressive agenda and his grasp of social media has been relatively favourable in Brisbane’s inner city. This includes in divisions that would otherwise be a Greens prospect. This might free up Labor to campaign with a lot of energy outside of Brisbane, but doing so might be ineffective. Baseball bats might already be out. Furthermore, the aforementioned strengths in the inner city have probably been a double-edged sword. Toxic in the outer suburbs.

That being said, I’m keenly awaiting the next state polls. I’m curious to see if 50c fares have made any measurable difference to Labor’s position. I have more thoughts on this I’ll drop soon.

Labor won’t hold gaven

Labor will hold only Gladstone and maybe Cook in the regions

@Trump24 I agree.

@AA yes but Queensland Labor itself hasn’t been known for its progressivism, like ever. In fact it’s been known for being one of the least progressive branches.

I think the Greens will pick up Cooper and McConnell, but the LNP will finish first in Cooper. They’ll both be blue vs green seats.

@SEQ Observer not only was the swing biggest in the outskirts of Darwin, but in Alice Springs too the biggest swing rightwards was in Namatjira.

@john I essentially agree with you. I also don’t think Labor will hold Gaven either. But I think it will be close and I think Labor are going to be spending a lot of time and energy in and around the division Gaven as part of the formal campaign. Riding on trains trams and such. Up until last year I think Labor were operating as if neighbouring Theodore was in play.

@Nether Portal absolutely QLD Labor hasn’t been progressive before. But lately (in the past few years), as the left and unity gain more power, it has built up a reputation for being progressive. Steven Miles’ new policies have only amplified this, and his use of social media is very effective.

@John QLD Labor left will do everything they can to save Gaven from falling to the LNP. Even though I like Meaghan Scanlon, realistically I think Gaven is gone to Bianca Stone. However Gaven and Coomera have the chance of going to Labor at future elections.

I also don’t know what will happen in Mulgrave, it’s really anyone’s game because Curtis Pitt retired. Neither of the major parties have candidates yet.

@aa the upcoming redistribution will likely help sure up both for the lnp

@SEQ Observer Labor Left have already been pouring their resources and volunteers into Gaven and Waterford. UQ Labor Left have been getting members from Brisbane to campaign for Fentiman in Waterford.

@A A Yep, when mentioning Labor’s key talent that they will be playing defence on. Fentiman of Waterford also came to mind. Another outer-suburban division I expect to face a 10%+ swing (like its neighbour Macalister). Labor will be throwing the kitchen sink to ensure that state figures they’ve invested a lot of political capital into over the years are not wiped out in this election. They just don’t have enough spaces on QLD Federal election senate tickets to preserve the profile of everyone. But hey, Labor might benefit from having some of this talent on Federal House of Rep ballot papers for marginal QLD divisions.